Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Recommended Posts

StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted
11 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Well all I’m going to say is ... it’s currently 24°C...GFS thinks it should be 17! I know what I think is going to happen with that this week. 

Yup what I said earlier today 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Well, at least more plumes haven't been removed from the table. Not saying it will happen, but a period of extended plumescence looks far more likely than does any repeat of 2007 or 2012?:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Yup what I said earlier today 

Only three places, all near to London, bettered or equalled 23C today...So the models weren't all that far-off after all.

Edited by Ed Stone
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

but a period of extended plumescence looks far more likely

  

As long as it's not an extended period of tumescence!

Anyway, these charts from the ukmo 12h should warm the cockles!

UW96-7.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

UW144-21.gif

ooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.jpg

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Yeh and thats what the ecm is about to show in an hour☀️?!!hoping for a direct hit and no messing around!!

Edited by Polar Maritime
Snipped removed quote.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

These are the best mean charts I've seen since..the 6z!!!

Prepare to roast next week, at least across the s / se but probably quite widely actually during the second half of the working week!!!!!!!

GFSAVGEU12_54_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_78_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_78_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_102_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_102_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_126_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_126_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_150_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_150_1.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted

What are the chances of this developing into another July 2006 dry and hot period lasting for several days in July and beyond? Are we close by or are we far from it?  There seems to be a good deal of High pressure to our East that could aid our chances if the dreaded HLB can do one once and for all. Also lots of the long range models in Spring were focusing on a ridge to the East with lots of S'ly and SE'ly influence.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Well folks, here are the GEFS 12Z ensembles. And what a mighty fine bunch of stonkers they are too!:yahoo:

t2mLondon.png  t850London.png

prmslLondon.png  prcpLondon.png

As for 35C+ sweatiness: image.png.d70c58ce951db5ddebc30fec67e9f160.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted (edited)

No more on Meto please. If your post has gone it's because it should not belong in here.

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

With every single GEFS member having +20C uppers into the UK at T144 (yes, I checked!) let's see what the ECM 12z comes up with, here at T96, compared with UKMO at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.26bdbd7c4cb9bea563a178c40d22104d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.23dc47bf5e0f99085c0e1cc7b235e680.jpg

Wouldn't want to split the difference there, so onwards....

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The Gem 12z also looks very plumescent as next week goes on..the working week, especially between wed / fri looks increasingly hot and sultry..change to cooler and fresher from the west next weekend but no guarantee of that happening!!

gem-1-72.png

gem-1-96.png

gem-0-96.png

gem-1-120.png

gem-0-120.png

gem-1-144.png

gem-0-144.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

Moving on, and the ECM T120 has the heat in!

image.thumb.jpg.7ab06d7a455655078c4be2097b7a5d9b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c20e7ce6c1cf0691b5525ec8d4f029ff.jpg

Low still cut off, pump away...think this is going to be a hot one!!

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

ECM T144:

image.thumb.jpg.292163dbbd7b149c6c401a19bdd568e9.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.54ad49e3ea24994f643da40e0338781d.jpg

The way that cut off low is handled is absolutely key, I'm buying ECM over GFS!

There's some heat there!

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Incredible ecm again. Probably the hottest uppers to ever hit the UK?

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T144:

image.thumb.jpg.292163dbbd7b149c6c401a19bdd568e9.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.54ad49e3ea24994f643da40e0338781d.jpg

The way that cut off low is handled is absolutely key, I'm buying ECM over GFS!

North Sea flow cut off away from the east too. Places like W Wales could see mid 30s on this chart, I feel. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Connor Bailey Degnan Community Regular

Connor Bailey Degnan

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire
Posted

Ecm 12z has 26c uppers across the south west... one of the best chances we're ever gonna get of smashing the record. 

144_mslp850uk-1.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM T168:

image.thumb.jpg.e2401adc6d24003becf7052d60529e07.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.69839dd146de52901a31a61433110f8d.jpg

Direct hit on this run, but previous runs have had a much wider plume, not sure if this is narrowing down on to 'the solution' or the natural variability?

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Ecm 12z has 26c uppers across the south west... one of the best chances we're ever gonna get of smashing the record. 

144_mslp850uk-1.png

Cor! That's a chart and a half. Another stunning run! Well and truly blowtorched ?️

I can't wait for people to tell me that we'll have highs of 24C on that day 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Plenty of heat from ECM, surely to god mid 30s somewhere! I've got lots of gardening duties next week.. I may need to revise my plan..... 

ECM0-96.gif

ECM0-120.gif

ECM0-144.gif

ECM0-168.gif

thumb_summer-is-coming-worksmarternottharder-redneck-ingenuity-drop-a-like-20996582.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168:

image.thumb.jpg.e2401adc6d24003becf7052d60529e07.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.69839dd146de52901a31a61433110f8d.jpg

Direct hit on this run, but previous runs have had a much wider plume, not sure if this is narrowing down on to 'the solution' or the natural variability?

Can’t see much difference to the 0z myself:’

ECM0-168_kca5.GIF

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...