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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Strange evolution there chaps... In the furnace at 168hrs then it seems to pull it right back 24 hours later.... Like I've said before... Get the heat in first and then the furnace will follow....

ECM0-168 (1).gif

ECM0-192 (1).gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted (edited)

T216 — temps still 24-27C, with another ridge incoming - if we did get to this stage, I think we may see a good first half of July too. 

Another incredible run. 

Edited by Man With Beard
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

This evening's ecm evolution 120 > 168is following the thinking of the EPS of removing the Atlantic subtropical ridge by phasing our cut off low with a trough to the west and allowing the European ridge to build north west. This has the surface high cell changing position resulting in the surface wind veering from NE >SE This results in three days of very pleasant weather with temps above average, but not excessively so, except for eastern coastal regions where it is quite chilly

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1550400.thumb.png.af882f6ea9451664453f59375cdcb06b.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1636800.thumb.png.7caf78a33870409f53624612619baf37.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1723200.thumb.png.7ee34ec0c8586879a69e848731ea8aa6.png

Just fine for Sidney

index.thumb.png.2a4a51676406acbac601c6d0e2bc19da.pngsidney.thumb.jpg.8f1e4dbc406d422af28e9c20ca7bbb54.jpg

 

Edited by knocker
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

However you slice it, next week looks the warmest week of this sorry summer so far but even so, it could be very wet although this Ecm run looks less wet than other output today!!

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

ECM is grand for a continued fine spell, with temperatures finally becoming more comfortable. Maybe the best run yet? Heat and then some nice warm sunny days after without feeling like an oven.

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

Carlsberg summer ECM run. This is no 3 fine days and a thunderstorm heatwave according to this run. The warmth/heat could extend on into week 2. Fingers crossed after the dire start to summer we’ve had. 

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Alex Apprentice

Alex

Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry summers with big thunderstorms.
  • Location: Chelmsford
Posted

Interesting times ahead. 

The GFS 12z has backed a slightly different scenario to the ECM.

If tonight’s GFS comes off it may actually end up warmer in some places even without the higher uppers as the air is sourced from a more southerly direction whereas modification would happen more with the ECM.

The UKMO run looks more middle ground between the two.

I still am a bit perplexed that the automated apps and national forecasts aren’t as buoyant about the really high temperatures. 

 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, Alex said:

I still am a bit perplexed that the automated apps and national forecasts aren’t as buoyant about the really high temperatures. 

 

One word...CLOUD!!!

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

ECM says to gfs and ukmo ill see your 100 and raise you a 1,000...it brings us heat... Real heat in places... Then it finishes with a cheeky little appearance from the Azores high!!! How you like them apples folks....

ECM0-240.gif

ECM1-240.gif

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Alex Apprentice

Alex

Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry summers with big thunderstorms.
  • Location: Chelmsford
Posted
2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

One word...CLOUD!!!

Yes that would be right for more western districts but cloud cover in the southeast is looking less of a problem. 

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
4 minutes ago, Alex said:

Interesting times ahead. 

The GFS 12z has backed a slightly different scenario to the ECM.

If tonight’s GFS comes off it may actually end up warmer in some places even without the higher uppers as the air is sourced from a more southerly direction whereas modification would happen more with the ECM.

The UKMO run looks more middle ground between the two.

I still am a bit perplexed that the automated apps and national forecasts aren’t as buoyant about the really high temperatures. 

 

BBC tonight also not showing anything exceptional - possibly favouring the slightly cooler air circulating around the top of the high pegging temperatures back. If that flow is cut off then we will see 32-35c for sure. All to play for and probably still too far out to be really sure how it’ll play out.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

One word...CLOUD!!!

Apps are completely useless in these scenarios.... Weather apps are giving alot of people false information regarding temperatures and precipitation. Any experienced forecaster will tell you to take them with a huge bag of salt! If it's sunny out your window next week.... Expect serious heat.... If its cloudy... Expect humid and warm.... There is Mattwolves animated app....

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Apps are completely useless in these scenarios.... Weather apps are giving alot of people false information regarding temperatures and precipitation. Any experienced forecaster will tell you to take them with a huge bag of salt! If it's sunny out your window next week.... Expect serious heat.... If its cloudy... Expect humid and warm.... There is Mattwolves animated app....

My point was really that this isn't dry heat coming, it's very humid air so cloud becomes a major issue, as does any persistent rain.

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted (edited)

Once again ECM temperature charts looking a little bizarre - possibility of 30-32C in spots on Tuesday / Wednesday / Saturday (after allowing usual increments on raw data), but the heat is reserved for SW areas on Thursday / Friday and maxing about probably 27-30C even there. Not particularly hot elsewhere on those days. Rather strange! GFS, in contrast, looks like going well into the 30s on cooler uppers. 

Edited by Man With Beard
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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
Just now, Jon Snow said:

My point was really that this isn't dry heat coming, it's very humid air so cloud becomes a major issue, as does any persistent rain.

Humid air doesn’t necessarily mean cloud.

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted
8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Once again ECM temperature charts looking a little bizarre - possibility of 30-32C in spots on Tuesday / Wednesday / Saturday (after allowing usual increments on raw data), but the heat is reserved for SW areas on Thursday / Friday and maxing about probably 27-30C even there. Not particularly hot elsewhere on those days. Rather strange! GFS, in contrast, looks like going well into the 30s on cooler uppers. 

I'm not sure it is that strange with this surface analysis MWB

1183367053_s1.thumb.png.eb57b260b3ca2011ddb5c408bb96a31c.png1501937375_s2.thumb.png.08a2a5acf7c786c0ec63b676e96f67ea.png

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Humid air doesn’t necessarily mean cloud.

Very true - as an example, a friend of mine lives in grand cayman....Saturday is forecast to be 32c, sunny, with humidity between 70-80% all day. 

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted
34 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM1-192.GIF?21-0

Still hot - @Singularity, what do you reckon, another ridge shortly to follow from the SW? 

Absolutely! Ha - sorry something else stole me away for a bit. The additional Atlantic trough interaction is very Niño-like so perhaps the MJO in the Pacific is exerting that little bit more influence than previously modelled. In line with the recent trend.

OR

It’s just a fluke run! Ensembles may help decipher the situation.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

TBH - whether it is 26 or 30 its still going to be very warm next week..

EC is an absolute stunner from my POV, it has very warm temps and extends the warm spell right through to day 10 and beyond..

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

After the coming week, and IF the Azores HP builds in subsequently, we could have some quite high SSTs, around our shores, come the Atlantic hurricane season...?:oldgrin:

ECM1-240.thumb.gif.38439687d07ba88205920

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

ECM mean T120:

image.thumb.jpg.33cbd7d5a85df5b6d0cf7f45065d9331.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.0581d6644611651c4dc0030b67fb79f7.jpg

Cuts the low off, and has +20 uppers on the mean into UK at T168:

image.thumb.jpg.e2dd62b4a33e53dbe14967328b3c44d3.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

ECM mean..... You beauty... Finishes with some nice Azores ridging... Me love it long time. 

EDM0-96.gif

EDM0-120.gif

EDM0-144.gif

EDM0-168.gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

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