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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
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Posted

One of the wettest Junes on record could end up with the highest June temp on record. You couldn’t make it up!

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

By day 10 most of us would be frazzled and would probably welcome the less hot air..what a run.. If carlsberg did Ecm runs...

Blitz-berg would be more of an appropriate word if we get the storms too

yes what a run and its nice to see the ukmo on board as well.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

One of the wettest Junes on record could end up with the highest June temp on record. You couldn’t make it up!

Given the storm potential in these charts it's within the realms of possibility that other, wetter records could be challenged ?️

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

ECM maxes for Tuesday to Thursday are 30-32C all on the south coast. Friday not updated yet. Last year you could normally add 3-4C to these temps for the actual max, 

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

One of the wettest Junes on record could end up with the highest June temp on record. You couldn’t make it up!

The wettest June on record could go to an extreme, way beyond the previous if the storm potential is realised. 

 

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted (edited)

Tis fair to say on the latest charts, it could be much, much, much, much (times a million) less cooler next week. Especially for the South! 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Mistakes
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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted (edited)

ECM raw Max temps not as high as I feared actually for Thu; peak is 32-33*C within a band running from just south of Bristol to Southampton.

No precipitation shown so it looks like the high humidity is limiting the boundary layer modification, as Knocker outlined this morning.

Having said that, an insufficient amount of boundary layer modification is the main reason I know of for the underestimation of maximums we tend to see.

So, the above chart may actually imply 35*C somewhere in the region I mentioned. With the high humidity, that's dangerous to health (high heat stress).

Friday has 32-23*C across a wider area, from a little south of Birmingham to just south of Bristol and then right the way across to the far southeast. Thunderstorms then break out overnight into Sat across the N half of the UK.


Seems to me that the models are bringing in such hot air aloft that rising motion isn't able to get going enough to turn the extremely high CAPE into actual thunderstorms. Astonishing!

Edited by Singularity
Fri etc
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Onding said:

Given the storm potential in these charts it's within the realms of possibility that other, wetter records could be challenged ?️

Right, own up? Who laughed at LG's June prediction of 20C and 200mm?:oldgrin:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
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Posted
10 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

By day 10 most of us would be frazzled and would probably welcome the less hot air..what a run.. If carlsberg did Ecm runs...

Seriously..if Carlsberg......:drunk-emoji:

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168_mslp500.png

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168_thick.png

192_thick.png

192_thickuk.png

192_mslp850.png

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216_mslp850.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

28th June this Friday could mark the anniversary of 2012

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted (edited)

Friday's max is out - raw temps around 34C to the west of London - allowing the usual adjustments, that would probably see a 37C for somewhere like Heathrow 

Edited by Man With Beard
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Friday's max is out - raw temps around 34C to the west of London - allowing the usual adjustments, that would probably see a 37C for somewhere like Heathrow 

That is extremely hot, wow!

Im actually happy precipitation is limited  anyone who enjoys proper summer weather get to your line manager monday morning and get some holidays booked !!

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Friday's max is out - raw temps around 34C to the west of London - allowing the usual adjustments, that would probably see a 37C for somewhere like Heathrow 

What are the temps looking like more widely across england?

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Greggers said:

What will the pub runs produce... firecrackers

Probably -5 uppers next week!

Seriously, this is the most dramatic day of summer model watching I can remember since I began to look in 2004.

But we need to be prepared for at least some downgrades, because it can’t go on like this, surely?

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Saturday raw max is higher - 35 to the NE London - 100F mark would be under threat 

If, and it is a big if, but less big than it was, this pattern were to make it through to the weekend without a breakdown, then I agree 100F could be threatened.  I wonder if the key take from the 12z output is not the onset of the plume, but increased uncertainty as to when it might end? 

Edited by Mike Poole
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

If, and it is a big if, but less big than it was, this pattern were to make it through to the weekend without a breakdown, then I agree 100F could be threatened.  I wonder of the key take from the 12z output is not the onset of the plume, but increased uncertainty as to when it might end? 

EC has certainly delayed the breakdown this evening, and is perhaps hinting at the Az High attempting to flex its muscles...

Tues-sat looks lovely , personally speaking, 25deg is fine for me, might get approaching unbearable in the centre of London if it hits 34 degrees..

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The ecm mean only managed +19 uppers in the extreme southeast this morning,i feel the 12z will up the anti...soon.

EDU0-144.thumb.gif.1ddba5029088f2f9f4e37131c67f6b24.gif

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Sofa ...so good!!..well it worked for the operational!!!!

EDM1-48.gif

hidingbehindcouch.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

The mean gets a fleeting +20 on the south coast,more runs needed

EDU0-168.thumb.gif.b8a3d35fd68f4cbd3f97caa58b5fb490.gif

what i do like though is the 6-10 dayer from cpc,we could be looking at an extended warm/hot spell.

610day_03.thumb.gif.8db751f7c3c2b379667407f5454ed972.gif

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ecm mean only managed +19 uppers in the extreme southeast this morning,i feel the 12z will up the anti...soon.

EDU0-144.thumb.gif.1ddba5029088f2f9f4e37131c67f6b24.gif

The mean reaches 20 850s at day 7 . That’s the peak on the mean . That is hot    enough 

E7C7B18A-96FB-494B-8919-A287996D07A7.png

Edited by ICE COLD
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

 Well the +20 contour on the T850s is into the south even on the mean chart at T168:

image.thumb.jpg.3c6d93087e27fbfceeb10386ff2afcb5.jpg

This event needs to be taken seriously now...

Edited by Mike Poole
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