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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The ukmo 12h is feeling hot, hot, hot next week, especially further s / se.. phew what a scorcher @ T+144..the ukmo is now on-board..unlike yesterday!!!!!?️

UW96-7.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Jon Snow
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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)

Could we end up getting a Greenland High from this...?

image.thumb.png.e2b413fc927b4921ebcb1a5d8b52133b.png


Exceptional heat, I'd hate to think what that would do Greenland's glaciers if the high carried that heat towards it. Exceptional run once again, support is really growing for a heatwave today.

I think that low to our west will be the main influence from here and not the Greenland high though. A pretty thundery scenario being thrown up....

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
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Posted

These Dew Points are nothing short of disgusting..

1544798107_DEWPOINT.thumb.png.17fbfd2add28382b5c121e97b058fd97.png

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

These Dew Points are nothing short of disgusting..

1544798107_DEWPOINT.thumb.png.17fbfd2add28382b5c121e97b058fd97.png

Gosh! Not sure how accurate those GFS charts are, but Dew Points up to 23 or 24*C in places would be mad!

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
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Posted (edited)

Potential windchill for next Wednesday :cold-emoji:

166156695_viewimage(32).thumb.png.303f9ff9d7c462f31aca4e237428dc31.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Ukmo finally joins the party and gfs continues to be a scorcher!!just ecm to come to make it a hat trick!!to think all of this starts from this sunday and could last all of next week!!!happy days?☀️

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Where is Mr frost from Scotland when you need him... +20 uppers even making it up to there! Won't be a normal barbecue for you Scottish folks that for sure.

gfs-1-192.png

giphy.gif

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ukmo finally joins the party and gfs continues to be a scorcher!!just ecm to come to make it a hat trick!!to think all of this starts from this sunday and could last all of next week!!!happy days?☀️

Even the Gem is trying to join the party..unlike yesterday!

gem-1-144.png

gem-1-168.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted

So the ukmo joins the gfs this evening. But I must be missing something here next week looks warm to hot. But far from dry. Looks like torrential rain with possible flooding issues. Not like people will be able to head to the beach. Suppose the rain will be warmer though.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Could we end up getting a Greenland High from this...?

image.thumb.png.e2b413fc927b4921ebcb1a5d8b52133b.png


Exceptional heat, I'd hate to think what that would do Greenland's glaciers if the high carried that heat towards it. Exceptional run once again, support is really growing for a heatwave today.

I think that low to our west will be the main influence from here and not the Greenland high though. A pretty thundery scenario being thrown up....

GFS is throwing up a stinking great Greeny high by next but fortunately wedges the cut off in a favourable position and keeps the warmth going! 

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
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Posted

Absolutely ridiculous again

gfs-1-174.png?12

I hear some people saying it may be the GFS upgrade overdoing things. I suppose we'll have to see if the ECM OP shows something similar soon. 

How hot will this be? The truth is, we just don't know, this kind of upper air heat has never been seen in the UK before. 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Like I've said many times before, get the heat in first and the cold will follow... 

Struggling to keep up with all the demand on here right now.. Posts are flying in at 100mph..superb stuff netweather. 

gfs-0-222.png

gfs-1-222.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
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Posted (edited)

Insane charts from the GFS once again, both the FV3 at T168 now:

image.thumb.jpg.bf7710a28b952d3f156a3b894258e157.jpg

And the old version giving a longer duration to the heat with this at T198:

image.thumb.jpg.37f6d8ecd9f5715465d4a37c61bf0c9e.jpg

The difference in the width of the plume here is quite noticeable, and a suggestion that this hot spell may not be over as quickly as some model runs have suggested.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

With any luck, we'll start sleeping again a week on Sunday...:oldgood:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, terrier said:

So the ukmo joins the gfs this evening. But I must be missing something here next week looks warm to hot. But far from dry. Looks like torrential rain with possible flooding issues. Not like people will be able to head to the beach. Suppose the rain will be warmer though.

I don't think anyone for a minute has said it'll be dry  Naturally some will avoid the worst of any storms that fire (and there's sure to be some beefy ones!) but with this airmass looking so hot and sultry the recipe is very much for heat and thunderstorms. Looks like we'll be posing as Floridians for a time next week ?️

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Onding said:

I don't think anyone for a minute has said it'll be dry

It'll be dry for a time as high pressure builds in but then becoming much more unstable, hot and sticky with an increasing thunderstorms risk, breaking out in-situ and drifting up from france.

Edited by Jon Snow
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

exceptional 850hpa profile coming up. Surface temps aren't as extreme as you would think but they are likely 2-3c undercooked this far out.

Also those few points are rough...going to feel exceptionally hot, regardless of how high temps actually go.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

It'll be dry for a time as high pressure builds in but then becoming much more unstable, hot and sticky with an increasing thunderstorms risk, breaking out in-situ and drifting up from france.

Yes I was referencing the main peak of the heat (I should've been clearer!), which as you say will feature an increasing thunderstorm risk. A very nice weekend to come for many though

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

So... now we have an interesting extension of the heat from GFS which the ensembles had been showing the potential for (especially EPS), and UKMO's finally produced a run that brings the 20*C+ 850s in place across part of the UK - even if it is only the extreme SE as of noon Wed.

I was wondering whether the UKMO 12z would sustain the heat as long as GFS given it hasn't got as much in the way of ridging NE and E of the UK, but then I looked at the GEM 12z, which is extremely similar at +144, and that has ridging develop more to the NE and E, keeping the heat involved across the southeastern third of the UK until the middle of Saturday. 

gem-0-144.png?12 gem-1-144.png?12

gem-0-192.png?12 gem-1-216.png?12


The extent of UKMO disinterest was really bugging me in terms of the chances of the heat getting involved with the UK all that much next week, so this shift by the 12z is a big deal in my book. Especially with the overall trend toward a slower displacement away (well anticipated by @Man With Beard, though of course it could yet swing back the other way so maybe hold off patting the back for a couple of days ).

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matty007 Rising Star

matty007

Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
Posted
21 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Absolutely ridiculous again

gfs-1-174.png?12

I hear some people saying it may be the GFS upgrade overdoing things. I suppose we'll have to see if the ECM OP shows something similar soon. 

How hot will this be? The truth is, we just don't know, this kind of upper air heat has never been seen in the UK before. 

Would be approaching 40c surely. 

Although due to the recent rain and wet ground, it would keep the temps down slightly. 

These uppers are mouthwatering, but I fully expect them to downgrade little by little. 

 

Will still be a very warm period for sure. 

 

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

npsh500.png npsh500.png

Nice to see the signal for lowering heights to our NW holding steady too. In fact, the preceding ridge build there is looking more like an extension of Arctic-Canada high pressure, meaning a west-based negative NAO which encourages the cut-off low to stay out to the west of Europe for longer. 

Absolutely fascinating!

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted
6 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

-5C 850 hpa air near the Orkneys come start of July

GFSOPUK12_252_2.png

A few days before

GFSOPUK12_153_2.png

A bit like Summer to Winter within a few days! Those in Orkney best get their Christmas trees out next month...

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

One comparison I haven't seen made yet is between what the models are showing for next week against the hottest day on record.  Here's the 850 temperatures from the GFS at T168, and those from 10 August 2003:

image.thumb.jpg.42bd43ab56fb3370023cec5068b9d6db.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.35cdc0843110e318d8af2df02c317049.jpg

Some key differences:

  • August 2003 was towards the end of a long settled hot spell.
  • Current situation starts from a low base re surface temperatures as it's been a cool start to summer and this is happening quite quickly.
  • The current setup surface temperatures are likely to  be reduced by thunderstorms and clouds in a way that August 2003 was not.

So I don't think we'll see the temperature record go, if what's currently modelled actually transpires.  I think the story might end up being the intensity of the thunderstorms, rather than record breaking temperatures.  Fascinating model watching!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The GEFS 12z mean next week..SENSATIONAL in a very hot and sweaty sort of way!!!

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