Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Interesting model runs at the moment, all latching onto a plume scenario next week of various intensity. I wouldn't get too hung up on the exact details at this range, and as ever I would stay very cautious about the suggestion of extreme uppers.. a factor that will come into play is the amount of cloud that is likely to become trapped within what looks a very unstable airmass.

On a personal level these are not my favourite synoptics, give me high pressure overhead/domination rather than a muggy unstable airmass from the south..

Longer term - mid atlantic high/scandi trough scenario a strong likelihood - as low heights to the SW are forced to splinter with associated trough, and high pressure can then build strongly to its north. Orientation of the high is all wrong for an injection of continental warmth, look at the cold uppers on the eastern flank of the high and cold air advection - only one way the core of heights is going and that is west.. We remain locked in a meridional jetstream, and the UK sits on the boundary between the cold and warm side of the jet. Plume events often bring sudden switcharound from heat to chill..

Edited by damianslaw
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

I really think next week's weather will  indicate some more flooding across some parts of the UK. .

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Interesting model runs at the moment, all latching onto a plume scenario next week of various intensity. I wouldn't get too hung up on the exact details at this range, and as ever I would stay very cautious about the suggestion of extreme uppers.. a factor that will come into play is the amount of cloud that is likely to become trapped within what looks a very unstable airmass.

On a personal level these are not my favourite synoptics, give me high pressure overhead/domination rather than a muggy unstable airmass from the south..

Longer term - mid atlantic high/scandi trough scenario a strong likelihood - as low heights to the SW are forced to splinter with associated trough, and high pressure can then build strongly to its north. Orientation of the high is all wrong for an injection of continental warmth, look at the cold uppers on the eastern flank of the high and cold air advection - only one way the core of heights is going and that is west.. We remain locked in a meridional jetstream, and the UK sits on the boundary between the cold and warm side of the jet. Plume events often bring sudden switcharound from heat to chill..

I don't know what to think, DL...Sometimes it appears (to me at least) that the jet is being concertinaed by pressure from the both the expanding hot airmass over Europe and what's left of the Final Stratospheric Warming; and the seasonal weakening of the latter is what's causing the kink to shift slightly westward...? :unknw:

The above could, of course, be complete an utter codswallop!:shok:

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

These charts for next week are absolutely bonkers! Such huge temperature contrasts 

Southern UK..... Summer arrives in style in central, southern and eastern England with 30C+ possible in London but Spring continues to trundle on in western areas, just 13C here in west Wales next Tues! a more typical April day even though we'll have just passed the summer solstice. For eastern Scotland unseasonably cold 

image.jpeg

Edited by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
11 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

These charts for next week are absolutely bonkers! Such huge temperature contrasts 

Southern UK..... Summer arrives in style in central, southern and eastern England with 30C+ possible in London but Spring continues to trundle on in western areas, just 13C here in west Wales next Tues! a more typical April day even though we'll have just passed the summer solstice. For eastern Scotland unseasonably cold 

image.jpeg

That's worse case scenario Jonathan, if under cloud cover and rain, then perhaps.... But plenty of sunny spells and it's gonna be a fair chunk higher than 13c...wow...what an ECM mean... It goes from Bermuda, to baltic in  just a few days! Worth noting though there are still a fair few runs keeping it much warmer... Probably 60/40 in favour of a Warmer scenario. 

graphe_ens3.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

I think at least southern / southeast england is going to sizzle for much of next week but probably more average conditions further n / nw which isn't good news for scotland..as usual!

Well that's a shock NOT

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Just looked at ECM ensemble members for T192 — not worth looking for trends tonight, there are several members between 20C and 25C uppers, and other members between 0C and minus 4C uppers. Good luck sorting that out Met Office

Edited by Man With Beard
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Latest ICON has evening thunderstorms sparking off as soon as Sunday across central areas, followed by a band of rain

image.thumb.png.6860211562067a3ea0e917b793bc0266.png

image.thumb.png.3af15d7c71f3cfd94228102f2571cb4c.png

image.thumb.png.a5a501cf84a6f19381f850a283a116e4.png

Though it seems to be erring more on the side of the UKMO than the GFS or ECM at day 5

image.thumb.png.b754056165f41a3ce0fe5587ce330888.png

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I really think next week's weather will  indicate some more flooding across some parts of the UK. .

You could be right, very warm / hot humid unstable air mass is the perfect recipe for big torrential thunderstorms to break out and also rumble north from scorching france..so yes, there could be some flash flooding but hot sunshine too and some areas could miss the storms completely...this is assuming we get a direct hit from the plume..still uncertain.

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Outlook for next week....

hot with some sunshine,so flip flops at the ready to put on to go down to the beach and pick up an ice cream on the way,sidney looks happy

download.jpg.b1e8a4b012ea47bd189bf5ee43ae6da7.jpg447889457_download(1).thumb.jpg.5d274a16272ec8ca15b6fb8ab59eed13.jpg940641867_download(3).thumb.jpg.c7b91bd2fe05ae869fc5d2f27ee6bc2d.jpg811880915_download(2).thumb.jpg.af1a223f5aadc9c56d8335c857547d0d.jpg101330389_download(5).thumb.jpg.48fb6ddf3f46ab23a9751405a3f3561e.jpg

then a chance for some humdinger of all storms,BRING IT ON!!!!!!

1722115183_download(4).thumb.jpg.616681541af6b7304e1827d1a3e8e692.jpg1364362541_download(6).thumb.jpg.27faa7238b6642ea4bbf1dee9b8290c5.jpg

Any heat most likely will be reserved for the SE corner of the UK, elsewhere some shortlived warmth..

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
1 hour ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

These charts for next week are absolutely bonkers! Such huge temperature contrasts 

Southern UK..... Summer arrives in style in central, southern and eastern England with 30C+ possible in London but Spring continues to trundle on in western areas, just 13C here in west Wales next Tues! a more typical April day even though we'll have just passed the summer solstice. For eastern Scotland unseasonably cold 

image.jpeg

The GFS apparently has had a makeover of some kind with some different programming and variables and now its spewing out all sorts of bizare numbers. its been over cooking the uppers 850s and at same time under cooking the 2m temps so pay no attention to it

Edited by 38.5*C
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Any heat most likely will be reserved for the SE corner of the UK, elsewhere some shortlived warmth..

Yes i am aware of that damian but the models have upgraded the heat over the last few days,they was showing the low over the uk,i really hope that next week comes off in terms of heat and storms.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

the 18z looks even better in regards of the low to the SW,it's further SW,a warm or hotter run.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

18z stalling the low out west a fraction,  good news for heat build.  July 2014 similar,  gave hot days with elevated dry heat storms 2am to 4am

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

18z still bringing the heat... Its the pub run so it may have had a few, but good to see non the less!! Let's see if we can get a 50/100miles Westwards correction tomorrow. 

gfs-1-144 (1).png

gatsby.gif

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Last thought from me today - a cautionary note - that trough is still not nailed on to get cut off. There's a moment on the GFS 18Z where it looked like it might squeeze through the gap towards Scandi early on, but it doesn't quite happen. 

But let's see where we are in the morning. I'll never forget that ECM 00Z ensemble suite though, sensational. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Winter is coming!

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-240.gif

Quality...lol

and as I've always said, get the cold in first and the snow will come

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

18z GFS ensembles are the most supportive of a plume early next week yet. Only a small number go without 15C+ uppers now.

image.thumb.png.da0b53e3a33afe12c353e3063e27f186.png

P13 brings the hot uppers over a larger area of the UK and a few others do so. Whether a small area of low pressure crosses the UK will determine whether this hot plume is just a Kent clipper or something more sustained.

image.thumb.png.f8ea13efb18f7cbf0513f0b3f4090a32.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Well here's the 40C potential run- 0z GFS

image.thumb.png.9424c04c627d61908e9b0313a9d4a93c.png

Raw temps suggestive of around 34-35C around London

CAPE off the scale

image.thumb.png.4cc8815806c77d16252c096749e70850.png

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well here's the 40C potential run- 0z GFS

image.thumb.png.9424c04c627d61908e9b0313a9d4a93c.png

Raw temps suggestive of around 34-35C around London

CAPE off the scale

image.thumb.png.4cc8815806c77d16252c096749e70850.png

yep  bbc  are saying  we  can expect  some monster  thunder storms  in the mix  as  well!!!!!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

GFS 0Z raw data for my location has a T850 of 22.8 and a 500/1000 thickness of 578dam at t174! Crazy crazy stuff! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
22 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well here's the 40C potential run- 0z GFS

image.thumb.png.9424c04c627d61908e9b0313a9d4a93c.png

Raw temps suggestive of around 34-35C around London

CAPE off the scale

image.thumb.png.4cc8815806c77d16252c096749e70850.png

Good grief Crewe, that’s insane.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    More rain on the way: Storm Nelson brings gales Thursday, but rain and wind easing for Easter

    Spells of rain or showers with sunshine in between affecting most areas today, snow over northern hills. Storm Nelson arrives tomorrow, bringing gales to southern coasts and windy elsewhere with further showers. Showers and wind easing somewhat into the Easter Weekend. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-27 09:35:27 Valid: 27/03/2024 0900 - 28/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 27 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...