Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking forward to the 12z's!!..some incredible output so far today but a few of the models, gem / ukmo not really on-board with the plume, more of a glancing blow at best and only for the SE corner..hopefully the 12z will strengthen the plume signal across the models!!

All eyes on the 12z, we all know there’s a wobble coming but when’s it going to be.....

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Depends how you see it frosty , I for one am hoping all the heat misses and passes to the east . Some of these runs have been insane for heat and humidity it would be horrible if they come of . Quite happy with sunshine and showers with the odd thunderstorm ⛈. That’s one thing that does look good next week big boy thunderstorms. 

Fair play, there certainly isn't cross model support for a plume worthy of the name so things may not get too bad for you next week.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

20 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Fair play, there certainly isn't cross model support for a plume worthy of the name so things may not get too bad for you next week.

 Certainly cross model support for a plume of some sorts though Karl, wether it be very warm, or hot is another ball game..

[Azazel]

I just want it to shift a few hundred miles West so even when it inevitably corrects East, we'll still be in the game.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I just want it to shift a few hundred miles West so even when it inevitably corrects East, we'll still be in the game.

Careful what you wish for Azazel, it could end up shifting that far West, it ends up in the states! Now that would be a downer!! But Yeh perhaps it would be good to look for a little correction Westwards on the 12s....couldnt do any harm. 

[Polar Maritime]

NetWx-mr take on Cape and temps for next Tuesday.

 

[Frosty.]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

perhaps it would be good to look for a little correction Westwards on the 12s....couldnt do any harm. 

Certainly that applies to the Gem and Ukmo.. the Gfs / Gefs / Ecm are currently plumetastiic!!

What often happens is one model jumps overboard and another jumps on-board..it's hard to get full support from all the models, at this range anyway.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Certainly that applies to the Gem and Ukmo.. the Gfs / Gefs / Ecm are currently plumetastiic!!

What often happens is one model jumps overboard and another jumps on-board..it's hard to get full support from all the models, at this range anyway.

You spoke to soon Karl.... The CFS ain't having any of it... It shunts the heat away to our East!!! Watch all the other models jump ship now....

[Frosty.]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

You spoke to soon Karl.... The CFS ain't having any of it... It shunts the heat away to our East!!! Watch all the other models jump ship now....

Lol I never even considered the cfs..that's that then!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

NetWx-mr take on Cape and temps for next Tuesday.

 

I think we definitely need some corrections Westwards there PM, looks disappointing away from Central and SE areas. perhaps parts of the NE as well. 

Edited June 19, 2019 by Mattwolves

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not a bad effort from the Icon 12s...it appears to shunt the core of the heat away to the East... But note its still a very warm run... And towards the end there are some suttle signs of the heat making some inroads towards us again.... 

And there is a potential for some hum dinger thunderstorm activity.... Something for everyone there I feel folks.. 

Edited June 19, 2019 by Mattwolves

[StormChaseUK]

42 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

NetWx-mr take on Cape and temps for next Tuesday.

 

18C west midlands during warm plume hmm..  heat that intense won't have clear defined line I think it was spill over/spread west as a larger area.

see what 12z brings. But I think you will be looking at 25, 26C West Midlands,  Mon - Thur at very least.

[StormChaseUK]

The most amazing thing about the computer models is that it will only take a shift of 100 miles, and subtle balance  next week to make June 2019 one of th greatest of all time for heat, or one of the worst of all time for entire month of wet, damp yucky weather.   Like a giant atmospheric roulette wheel will it land on red heat or black rubbish.

[mb018538]

UKMO still not as interested as gfs/ecm ...until we get cross model support it’s still all up in the air. Not a bad run though.

Edited June 19, 2019 by mb018538

[Methuselah]

Well peeps, superplume or not, by Sunday, thing'll be well on the way toward warming up nicely:

 

Edited June 19, 2019 by Ed Stone

[northwestsnow]

13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

UKMO still not as interested as gfs/ecm ...until we get cross model support it’s still all up in the air. Not a bad run though.

120 UKMO looks very unstable, 144 looks to be settling down nicely..

[Guest]

GFS 12z still there with the theme but actually not making enough of the cut off, so in essence it’s too far away and it doesn’t act as a big heat pump. Don’t want to end up with the high collapsing over the top of us and leaving us in a northerly.....

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

GFS 12z still there with the theme but actually not making enough of the cut off, so in essence it’s too far away and it doesn’t act as a big heat pump. Don’t want to end up with the high collapsing over the top of us and leaving us in a northerly.....

It's just lacking a little bit of a SE component that the 6z had....that's really nitpicking though, 850s still touch 17/18c, so hot regardless.

UKMO they don't even really exceed 10/11c, so it'd just be a bog standard warm couple of days with temperatures in the 25-28c range.

[Man With Beard]

UKMO/GFS don't get the hottest air to the UK, but make no mistake, they both still have a very warm start to next week, 30C still well in the picture in places. Perhaps thundery too? 

No surprise to see a few twists and turns in the modelling - it's not a typical situation. General picture still the same with the low cut off to the SW

[Captain Shortwave]

The UKMO can sometimes underestimate the 500mb heights on these ridges which obviously is far more important when dealing in set ups like this, the general theme though looks good.

the cut off low idea is looking more and more likely which is the first obstacle here. The depth of the resulting low will determine how well the heat can build across the UK. The GFS has a slightly larger and deeper low which makes the run a little cooler.

just out of curiosity, what would we count the rain as early next week, a thundery breakthrough???

[thestixx]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

120 UKMO looks very unstable, 144 looks to be settling down nicely..

Realistically, what would aid that low in staying south and west? A strong high? Or would the coreolis effect eventually push it over us?

[Mr Frost]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It's just lacking a little bit of a SE component that the 6z had....that's really nitpicking though, 850s still touch 17/18c, so hot regardless.

UKMO they don't even really exceed 10/11c, so it'd just be a bog standard warm couple of days with temperatures in the 25-28c range.

Indeed - UKMO chart for 144 has all the heat visiting the usual Mainland Europe hotspots. (What happens afterwards is the question!)

As you say though - still a hot couple of days in the Southeast. (I would take that no problem!)

We all know what happens in Winter when the UKMO charts disagrees with the ECM/GFS at this sort of range...

For me personally (based in the Northwest of the UK)  I am getting the turd end of the stick currently and likely going forward with regards to that old Summer favourite named the NW/SE divide...

Looks as though plume-gate will go down to the wire - makes it more fun that way! 

Edited June 19, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Singularity]

 

Yes... check out this for fine margins, the 12z is a little less quick to cut-off the low, which allows more of a 'lobe' to develop on the NE flank, limiting the extent to which the first push of the heat dome makes it across the UK.

The low still becomes fully cut-off by the early hours of Wednesday though, so a second push of the heat dome could still make it further, if the cut-off low aligns in the right way or drops to our south a bit to set up a longer draw from the southeast (GEM 12z almost does this). At this range, it's a total guessing game!

[Derecho]

10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It's just lacking a little bit of a SE component that the 6z had....that's really nitpicking though, 850s still touch 17/18c, so hot regardless.

UKMO they don't even really exceed 10/11c, so it'd just be a bog standard warm couple of days with temperatures in the 25-28c range.

I think the UKMO is cooler because low pressure makes more of an inroad on Monday. The old GFS run (on meteociel) is a cross with the UKMO and current GFS up until the middle of the week but builds heat to the south later.

[StormChaseUK]

If everyone faces west and blows towards the low or place all fans westward full on   

It does seem very close down to the wire stuff,   a shift of 50-70miles either way could mean 20C or 30C