Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[Guest]

Well the GFS 06z ensembles are staggering and the Ops run clearly now not and outlier. A decent number of the ensemble members now bring 20c uppers across the south towards the middle of next week at one point or another.

Edited June 19, 2019 by Alderc

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just what the doctor ordered.... 150hrs looks primed for serious heat.... Edd Stone your gonna wish you was in a factory furnace and not the farm next week!!! Lovely jubilee... 

Ps.. Quite liking the end of the 6z to... Pressure ridging to the south and relatively low heights over Greenland.. 

Edited June 19, 2019 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

19 minutes ago, danm said:

It hit 37c that day in London. It was oppressively hot! 

it was nowhere near 37c in London in June 2017, I think your confused with 1st July 2015

[weirpig]

Ensembles  showing the mean for Central England around 14 uppers   Of course heavily skewed   by a few runs  however what it does show is the potential   for something very warm  A few rogue runs hitting over 20 uppers  which inland would bring severe heat 

 

Edited June 19, 2019 by weirpig

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Your not allowed to post met office updates in here... Especially when they are useless... 

Too true!

They won't commit to anything regarding a heatwave with this much uncertainty, because the gutter press will just pick it up and run with it causing a load of un-needed hysteria. If it's still showing in the next couple of days then i'd expect to see it.

What an ensemble:



Odds currently 66% for plume, 33% for trough to win and no plume.

[mb018538]

Also to add - 

Record June maximum temperature for the UK:

35.6c - 29th June 1957 @ Camden Square
          - 28th June 1976 @ Southampton Mayflower Park

Just as a bit of fun. This record is under serious threat if we start to see 850's of 15-20c arriving next week. One to watch (perhaps).

[Frosty.]

Could see mid 30's celsius next week if the 6z operational is anywhere close..Heathrow airport maybe!!

Edited June 19, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Summer Sun]

Certainly an increasing chance for heat and some big thunderstorms as we go through next week

Yesterday's storms could just be the warm up act if next week remains unchanged

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Away in SW France next week, typical! Hoping we get some serious heat there too, BBC are already suggesting 34°C!

Yes... Plenty of heat down there.. All 3 main models showing that nicely. 

[Djdazzle]

Now we need to get things into a more reliable time range. If the 12z runs carry on the theme then it may be game on.

Would be interesting to see how often plumes verify at this range compared to, say, easterlies.

[danm]

33 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

it was nowhere near 37c in London in June 2017, I think your confused with 1st July 2015

Yes my bad. Thought he meant 2015

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Now we need to get things into a more reliable time range. If the 12z runs carry on the theme then it may be game on.

Would be interesting to see how often plumes verify at this range compared to, say, easterlies.

You're absolutely right, this epic plume ain't in the bag by any means but I think a warm up of some description is..the question now is how hot and for how long!!

Edited June 19, 2019 by Jon Snow

[northwestsnow]

Vast majority going for a very decent plume!!

[Paul]

Errm, if someone posts about the met office update, does it really need a handful of posts following to point out that it's off topic? Kind of defeats the purpose, no?!

Please just hit the report button  

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Paul said:

Errm, if someone posts about the met office update, does it really need a handful of posts following to point out that it's off topic? Kind of defeats the purpose, no?!

Please just hit the report button  

Paul, 

Can you clarify the position wrt Meto?

I was under the impression it could be mentioned if it contained reference to the models?

Or has this position changed and i missed it?

[Zesyph]

I have read that we could get a few storms with this set up next week but was wondering what the weather would be like in general with those uppers and humidity........ hot and dry or wet with cloud cover? or a mix of the two. 

[Paul]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Paul, 

Can you clarify the position wrt Meto?

I was under the impression it could be mentioned if it contained reference to the models?

Or has this position changed and i missed it?

It's as it always was tbh. There is a thread for meto updates, so not really any reason to discuss them in here. If you're making a post about the models which mentions them, then it's probably fair enough (as long as it doesn't then end up with lots of replies about the meto stuff) but if you're making a post about their updates which mentions the models, then it's better suited to the other thread.

[Methuselah]

The GEFS 06Z ensembles are nae bad!!

  

  

                                   

[Frosty.]

Following next week's hopefully epic plume, the 6z GEFS shows another in early July!!..wouldn't that be GRRRRREAT!!!

[mb018538]

9 minutes ago, Zesyph said:

I have read that we could get a few storms with this set up next week but was wondering what the weather would be like in general with those uppers and humidity........ hot and dry or wet with cloud cover? or a mix of the two. 

Storms likely, but impossible to say at this range. It would be very oppressive and humid though, not like last summers heat.

For example the 6z GFS has a maximum temperature of 32c in the London area next Wednesday, with dew-points in the low 20s C. Net result?



Feels like temperatures will be around 40c, which is unbearably hot.

One of the beautiful things about last summers heat is that while daytime maxes were around 30c, humidity was often around 30%, which made it feel more comfortable. Next week could be a whole different level if it comes off.

CAPE values are almost off the scale, but impossible to guess what will happen at this far off.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

 

Horrendously high dp of 26C possible. Anyone know the UK record? 

Edited June 19, 2019 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[Paul]

Just moved a handful of posts to the summer thread - if it's not about the models, please don't post it in here

 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

 

Horrendously high dp of 26" possible. Anyone know the UK record? 

24c at Doncaster i believe. 

[Frosty.]

Looking forward to the 12z's!!..some incredible output so far today but a few of the models, gem / ukmo not really on-board with the plume, more of a glancing blow at best and only for the SE corner..hopefully the 12z will strengthen the plume signal across the models!!

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking forward to the 12z's!!..some incredible output so far today but a few of the models, gem / ukmo not really on-board with the plume, more of a glancing blow at best and only for the SE corner..hopefully the 12z will strengthen the plume signal across the models!!

Depends how you see it frosty , I for one am hoping all the heat misses and passes to the east . Some of these runs have been insane for heat and humidity it would be horrible if they come of . Quite happy with sunshine and showers with the odd thunderstorm ⛈. That’s one thing that does look good next week big boy thunderstorms.