Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Sorry should have been clearer, generally looks as though it wants to hold the cut off in a more favourable position to the south west allowing for a north west advection of the warmer airmass over the UK. 

ECM to 144 looks promising as well.

But you would expect the trough to still be to the south west at that time and it is still tracking the frontal rain north east. Extrapolation from the this position is mere speculation imo

 

[Man With Beard]

ECM T168 is a MAJOR stall of the Atlantic trough and this is where heatwave dreams are made

Both ECM and GFS get 20C uppers to the UK this morning. What's that June temperature record again? 

(Still with Alderc, I still rate a more progressive solution at 65% probability, but that figure is falling...) 

[Man With Beard]

ECM T192 is positively steaming

[knocker]

The evolution next week according to the ecm keeping in mind this is well into F1 of a tricky evolution

 

Edited June 19, 2019 by knocker

[bluearmy]

So the expectation last week that the view into the distance would provide warm rain as opposed to cold rain certainly looks to have gained traction ...... infact, could be tropical rain! 

The development/evolution of the cut off upper low to our sw beyond the initial plume is likely not pinned down by the modelling .....unusual scenario with the Atlantic and sceuro upper ridging building in tandem ........ certainly potential for a notable ‘canicule’ to our south as a second plume not out of the question. 

Edited June 19, 2019 by bluearmy

[Frosty.]

Absolutely Gorgeous Ecm 00z operational for heat lovers next week, the very least we deserve following the utterly miserable depressingly cool start to summer!!!!!!!

[Djdazzle]

90F more than likely next week based on today's runs if cloud cover is favourable.

Would still like a further correction west though, to give some breathing space.

[Man With Beard]

In two decades of model watching, I think I had seen 25C uppers on a chart once (didn't happen, of course).

Now the GFS has managed it twice in 24 hours. 

[mountain shadow]

The potential heat scenario aside, I'm liking the continued trend of holding the trough the the South West and then having the lower pressure to the West of Ireland as opposed to through the UK. Yes, the potential for heavy thundery showers but hopefully decent sun and warmth in between.

[johnholmes]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

GFS raises the stakes...

 

The model however is still having massive issues with data representation. Here is the corresponding precipitation chart-

Massively out of kilter with the corresponding pressure chart above. If those uppers occurred, you could add a good 5/6C on to those 2m temperatures and beef the CAPE up considerably. There would also be some pretty severe supercell thunderstorms knocking about.

An interesting comment but I am not sure you summation of how the model is behaving re ppn and CAPE are correct. The model is 3 dimensional so instability, humidity etc have to be in line with its predictions of temperature and humidity etc each level. To suggest this is not so to me seems wrong-just my opnion.

Extra t-ph output does not go far enough ahead to compare the charts you show with its 3 dimensional diagram.

[mb018538]

13 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The potential heat scenario aside, I'm liking the continued trend of holding the trough the the South West and then having the lower pressure to the West of Ireland as opposed to through the UK. Yes, the potential for heavy thundery showers but hopefully decent sun and warmth in between.

Fine margins! Trough over the UK equals cold and unsettled....if it can just hold out west it could be hot and potentially explosively stormy. On a knife edge.

[Man With Beard]

Pretty good support from mean charts at T192 for the upper trough stalling west. Worth noting I couldn't find a single ECM ensemble member that had this evolution just 24 hours ago.

  

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

35 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

In two decades of model watching, I think I had seen 25C uppers on a chart once (didn't happen, of course).

Now the GFS has managed it twice in 24 hours. 

Surely with uppers that high, we would easily touch 35c? We managed it last year without the 20c isotherm I believe. Although the ground and soil was much drier.

I just think temps are being massively undercooked, and the GFS to my mind has been doing this since whatever update it has had during this last week. Either it’s undercooking surface temps, or massively overdoing the 850hpa temps! 

Edited June 19, 2019 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Summer Sun]

The ECM London mean is hitting +15 on the 850's this morning

Central southern Scotland gets to around +10

A very good chance of a significant warm up into next week

[johnholmes]

There is no GFS output this morning on the 500 mb anomaly charts but both EC and NOAA are pretty similar and have been for a couple of days with the idea or ridge-trough-ridge from the Atlantic into the UK and on to Europe. Thus I tend to feel that this upper air pattern may be close to the mark for the 6-10 day period, see below. Detail on just what weather this produces over the UK is not for these charts but for the synoptic outputs. I'll try and check like with like so 12z today and 12z tomorrow for instance.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Surely with uppers that high, we would easily touch 35c? We managed it last year without the 20c isotherm I believe. Although the ground and soil was much drier.

I just think temps are being massively undercooked, and the GFS to my mind has been doing this since whatever update it has had during this last week. Either it’s undercooking surface temps, or massively overdoing the 850hpa temps! 

Running through GFS I can see a 34c on Thursday week at the peak of the heat given its tendency to underestimate temps you could easily add another 3 or 4c to that if conditions were spot on

[Methuselah]

Blimey! That was a loud night! So, the GEFS 00Z ensembles:

  

  

The Op might appear to be an outlier, not because it's wrong per se, but because any tinkering with the input data will almost inevitably result in less-hot conditions...?

[Guest]

Despite the outrageous uppers there are a couple of limiting factors on maxes, potentially still wet ground - could be very humid at times next week. Also there will be modification of the airmass crossing the cold channel, also depending on humidity and advection rate there could be ridiculous amounts of sea fog. I was in Marrakesh in May and had 25c uppers that delivered 43c, clearly won’t happen here but I wouldn’t be surprised to see temps far of that on the near continent. 

[mountain shadow]

26 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Pretty good support from mean charts at T192 for the upper trough stalling west. Worth noting I couldn't find a single ECM ensemble member that had this evolution just 24 hours ago.

  

This could lead to a flip flop on the Met Office longer range forecast too then. Those are excellent means.

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Despite the outrageous uppers there are a couple of limiting factors on maxes, potentially still wet ground - could be very humid at times next week. Also there will be modification of the airmass crossing the cold channel, also depending on humidity and advection rate there could be ridiculous amounts of sea fog. I was in Marrakesh in May and had 25c uppers that delivered 43c, clearly won’t happen here but I wouldn’t be surprised to see temps far of that on the near continent. 

Very much depends on how close that LP gets! I would be very surprised if we didn't get a couple of 90F days with that set up, probably the SE / East Anglia. Hopefully the cooler Channel won't plague your area with cloud Chris.

[knocker]

The EPS mean anomaly still indicating a rapid de-amplification

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, there's a plume event firming up early next week!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited June 19, 2019 by Jon Snow

[StormChaseUK]

Usually a storm event like last night breaks the weather for 2 weeks or so. But this time it appears to be bringing in a change to Warmer, hotter weather.  06z I feel might take a step down and revert back to cooler. Will see

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, there's a p!ume event firming up early next week!!!!!!!!!!!

Looking that way now. The good news is that we have a few drier days in the run up so that the ground will not be as damp, which should promote higher temperatures.

[summer blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Looking that way now. The good news is that we have a few drier days in the run up so that the ground will not be as damp, which should promote higher temperatures.

Precipation charts suggest that Monday will actually be quite wet as the warm front heads north with Tues-Thurs being the days to watch.