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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted

ECM again with a bizarre transition from 168 to 192. It’s really struggling. No way will Greenland heights just blow up like that. One for the programmers to look at there.

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Feels like we’re left with more questions than answers tonight....nice to see some sort of plume appearing, but the ‘after’ bit is hard to work out. ECM is hideous from 192 onwards, but that’s a lifetime away at the moment. Probably the most uncertainty with a feature we’ve had for quite a while.

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Mr Frost Maestro

Mr Frost

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM again with a bizarre transition from 168 to 192. It’s really struggling. No way will Greenland heights just blow up like that. One for the programmers to look at there.

I’m not so sure mate - lots of outlooks now heading down that route.

But there could be a couple of days before that with hot temperatures and plenty of sunshine for many down South so I wouldn’t look that far ahead currently!

Hopefully Summer arrives for the rest of the UK and Ireland sometime in July! 

Edited by Mr Frost
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
Just now, Mr Frost said:

I’m not so sure mate - lots of outlooks now heading down that route.

But there could be a couple of days before that with hot temperatures and plenty of sunshine for many down South so I wouldn’t look that far ahead currently!

Indeed, get the hot air in first..etc, etc..

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El Nino Rookie

El Nino

Posted
  • Location: Switzerland, 350m
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters with snow and hot sunny summers
  • Location: Switzerland, 350m
Posted
1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

We in the north are used to this, nothing unusual about it..par for the course really.

Meanwhile we are used to the almost 40°C here in Central Europe, all summer since 2015 have been like this...

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

I’m not so sure mate - lots of outlooks now heading down that route.

But there could be a couple of days before that with hot temperatures and plenty of sunshine for many down South so I wouldn’t look that far ahead currently!

Hopefully Summer arrives for the rest of the UK and Ireland sometime in July! 

I don’t see how heights can blow up like that within 24 hours.

It’s FI anyway.

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Sweatyman Seasoned

Sweatyman

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
Posted
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC backs away and joins the plume party!!

All we need now is a loveley westward movement on  the 00z's.  If only it was that simple!☹

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM turns from plume to arctic in just 48 hours! 

Yep, extremely interesting run...something for everyone. Miles better than the horrible 'stuck in a dry rut' we saw last year.

Would love to see the precipitation charts...

Edited by CreweCold
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Exactly. It’s just implausible,

It's not implausible at all, but by the same token I'm not saying it's likely.

Greenland heights are there at day 7, the jet has nowhere to go but under the block, hence we see LP pushed across the Atlantic towards the UK. Interaction of the air masses seems to give the jet enough 'oomph' to get the troughing across us days 8 & 9, which leaves us open to the Arctic.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Boooooooommmmmmmm, ECM gearing up for winter just a few hours after roasting us! El nino thanks for the heads up on your 40 degrees since 2015....we have been scraping the barrel with 40 Fahrenheit here mate....

ECM1-216.gif

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It's not implausible at all, but by the same token I'm not saying it's likely.

Greenland heights are there at day 7, the jet has nowhere to go but under the block, hence we see LP pushed across the Atlantic towards the UK. Interaction of the air masses seems to give the jet enough 'oomph' to get the troughing across us days 8 & 9, which leaves us open to the Arctic.

Which would sum up our luck really!

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Mr Frost Maestro

Mr Frost

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
Posted

The ECM 12z run in full - as @CreweCold said...something for the heat and cool Summer lovers! 

From blistering heat in London to Cairngorms snowfall? ☃️

anim_rta1.gif

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM again with a bizarre transition from 168 to 192. It’s really struggling. No way will Greenland heights just blow up like that. One for the programmers to look at there.

Nah the building blocks for a Greenland High are there at 144 with WAA from that Atlantic Low. Also with Greenland heights being a recurring pattern in May and June I would say its a very credible outcome after our plume unfortunately.

 

Edit: Also I really dont mind the chart at t240 I imagine it would be 15-16C and sunny for most of England. Its getting stuck under the t192 chart like last week that is nightmare fuel.

Edited by Snowy L
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Which would sum up our luck really!

Well, as I see it, given the sort of values we're seeing advertised at the 850 level, the boundary area between airmasses stands a real risk of a 200mm rainfall event- if everything happens to fall together in a certain way that is. The GFS doesn't really advertise this but the risk is there for sure.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

564..damn that would feel like summer!!..before winter returns again!!

144_thickuk.png

144_mslp850.png

168_thickuk.png

168_mslp850.png

168_thick.png

240_mslp500 (1).png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
15 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Indeed, get the hot air in first..etc, etc..

Since when has this thread ever suffered from a shortage of hot air? I'll get my coat!

It's thundering!:yahoo:

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
  • Popular Post
Posted

ECM tugs at that continental plume but with significant watch outs - 

Heat + instability = Storms & heavy rain...

503329F1-6E7C-4B21-BC8B-54A23EA1A5E7.thumb.png.eda04585330967293b7246f98568cb57.png

 

Of note though is the continual blocking of Greenland at record breaking Thickness ( similar to last week ) indicating that the low pressure could become quasi- stationary again...

Another Summer of Extremes this year...

EA4ED461-DF57-48EC-A7CF-587F3A1633DA.thumb.png.76994d1f9af165ab39d6c7a77743a5b5.png

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's not implausible at all, but by the same token I'm not saying it's likely.

Greenland heights are there at day 7, the jet has nowhere to go but under the block, hence we see LP pushed across the Atlantic towards the UK. Interaction of the air masses seems to give the jet enough 'oomph' to get the troughing across us days 8 & 9, which leaves us open to the Arctic.

And I would read this another way. The high cell in the north west Atlantic effectively blocks off the Atlantic and the energy flows are mainly around north Greenland which facilitates the dropping of the colder air south from the TPV to our trough in situ which is my it is very quick. Just a thought but in any case it's al academic

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-1636800.thumb.png.95c5c631f0de0ca154affd37c907891c.png

But not the EPS

index.thumb.png.3fb93f3c9e2d1b0244bef11da78f5800.png

Edited by knocker
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Nigerian Prince Apprentice

Nigerian Prince

Posted
  • Location: Battersea, London
  • Location: Battersea, London
Posted

The ECM has been very  persistent with the northerly in F1 that's 4 or 5 runs now, of course still a long way away this does not mean it will be right, but those who are warm/hot weather fans should be hoping the evolution is dropped in the next 2 or 3 days. The evolution of low pressure to the west moving over the UK and transferring east to allow, cold north winds south.

Location Battersea, London. Gender Male.

ECM1-192.gif

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