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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

If that verified, and if, crucially, surface temperatures responded, it could be dreadful.  42C and 70% humidity, possibly? 

Really couldn’t think of anything worse.....

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm just hoping the Atlantic low gets cut off and remains sufficiently South and West to keep the rain bearing fronts away.

It's the only good solution we've got at the moment. If that trough gets stuck over the UK again, we could see another repeat of last week with somewhere getting an absolute deluge. Maybe not Wainfleet level like last week, but the potential for a soaking is there.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It's the only good solution we've got at the moment. If that trough gets stuck over the UK again, we could see another repeat of last week with somewhere getting an absolute deluge. Maybe not Wainfleet level like last week, but the potential for a soaking is there.

Given we're coming into high Summer you would hope the Atlantic is running out of puff and the low stalls way to the South West. Knowing our luck so far, it will deepen and drive across the country with a Northerly to follow. All eyes on the 12z and a hope that the low stalls way to the South West.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

This is how hot the GFS 06Z - these are often undercooked by 3C or so

228-582UK.GIF?18-6

Looking through all 51 ECM ensemble members (I just had to!), not one of them is remotely close to the GFS option, though quite a few runs get uppers of 18C-20C over Monday/Tuesday next week so could be temporarily hot especially in the SE corner.

It's so unlikely but it is of course worth restating - how many times over the years have we seen the GFS throw out a bizarre looking solution, look utterly wrong, only for the other models to shift every so slightly towards it nearer T0? Many times it gets pulled into line by the others but it does sometimes latch on to the correct pattern days ahead of the other models (e.g. snow event on March 1st 2018). And it's not as if a huge shift is needed here.

Not forecasting, just pondering ... Well at least it's something interesting to watch for ;) 

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

Let’s hope for a backtrack on the 12z. Can’t think of anything worse than temps in the 30s. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

It's more of a glancing blow from the Icon... Certainly not the high end temps of GFS! Either way you look at it we just can't seem to get a favourable build of pressure. 

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Let’s hope for a backtrack on the 12z. Can’t think of anything worse than temps in the 30s. 

Careful what you wish for. Don't want to be stuck beneath another green trough pulling in 0C 850s from the North like last week do we? 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
5 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Its insane. Probably the hottest run I’ve ever seen for 850s in the UK.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019061800_216.

As crazy as it is and very unlikely, cluster 4 at day 9 matches up pretty well, with around a 1 in 6 chance of happening.

Unfortunately the biggest cluster is still what the Op and gem showed on the 00z with the trough stuck over the UK.

I guess the 'cold bias problem' has been solved then? We haven't done with 'brollies and grollies' yet, methinks? ☔:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS still going for the plume..

image.thumb.png.5b437d396d0a0b6566fb4a1ba13f9f44.png

yes, and crucially its refusing to allow that trough to exit northeastwards on monday like the ecm insists.. itll be interesting tonight to see if the ecm backs off from that.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

If ECM backs down, I’ll be very interested. If it doesn’t, then the plume won’t happen in all likelihood since the most unsettled option is correct 9 times out of 10!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Could be an interesting set up with low pressure close by if this heat generates enough. 

gfs-0-174.png

gfs-1-174.png

giphy-1.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

If ECM backs down, I’ll be very interested. If it doesn’t, then the plume won’t happen in all likelihood since the most unsettled option is correct 9 times out of 10!

Yes I agree here, low pressure is often underestimated in these setups. GFS being consistent but we need the ECM to come on board.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Whichever way you slice it, the rough template is there for a lot of rain to fall somewhere. Where that somewhere is right now, I have no clue.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Ukmo 12z looks pretty darn good for incoming heat from south and east at 120 and 144 hours!!could be really hot and humid this time next week!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gem 12z has improved a bit longer term from its utterly vile 0z to a not so terribly awful 12z..baby steps.:whistling:

gem-0-216.png

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Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

the main difference between the ecm and gfs is the strength of the anticipated ridge to our north. the gfs amplifies it whilst the ecm weakens it, weakens it enough to allow the trough to exit.

 

ecm no.png

gfs yes.png

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
10 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ukmo 12z looks pretty darn good for incoming heat from south and east at 120 and 144 hours!!could be really hot and humid this time next week!!

Indeed, but would feel much more comfortable if that LP was a bit further west.

Agree with @CreweCold, there could be some serious downpours on the boundary between the hot air and the moist, cooler air.

 

Edited by Djdazzle
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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

12z backs down on the higher temperatures , BUT.. only for the UK.   heat still remains strong heading towards 40C in France.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Next week looks like a real forecasting conundrum. With an Euro ridge and Atlantic ridge in play you could see a major heatwave outbreak across a large part of Europe, or end up with no real warm up at all and it’s all dependent on how the trough towards the end of week 1 behaves. Plenty of heat building to the south to draw up so certainly some interest here and on potential thundery outbreaks being brought northwards via that low.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
11 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

12z backs down on the higher temperatures 

 

You mean the 850's not as high surely?..the 2m temps were nothing special on the 6z despite +24 T850's!..correct me if I'm wrong cos I know nothing.

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

You mean the 850's not as high surely?..the 2m temps were nothing special on the 6z despite +24 T850's!

Aye...It still looks like high 20s, to me:h850t850eu.png                                                                                                              h500slp.png

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

CAPE values do not support the 'stormageddon' predictions for the uk.... unless im missing something..

cape.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

CAPE values do not support the 'stormageddon' predictions for the uk.... unless im missing something..

cape.png

I thought it was all supposed to kick off later tonight (early hours) and tomorrow day time..the flash bang flash bang i mean?

Edited by Jon Snow
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