Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[knocker]

The ecm pretty much sticking to last night's script of amplification in the latter part of the run which will probably be transient if everything sticks to the pattern change as previously indicated. Having said that we do without the 'corridor' to the secondary TPV

Edited June 18, 2019 by knocker

[Djdazzle]

I just don't get all this negativity with charts that simply won't verify.

Synoptically, a lot of things would have to fall perfectly into place to get a trough stuck over us again. And it's in deep FI anyway. The models do not have a handle on how this hot air will interact with the trough. Anything could happen after that.

When a 240 chart is showing heat, it's dismissed as FI by some. When it shows unsettled, it's like "it will happen."

 

EDIT: Read Knocker's post which suggests that any troughing is likely to be transient.

Edited June 18, 2019 by Djdazzle

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I just don't get all this negativity with charts that simply won't verify.

Synoptically, a lot of things would have to fall perfectly into place to get a trough stuck over us again. And it's in deep FI anyway. The models do not have a handle on how this hot air will interact with the trough. Anything could happen after that.

When a 240 chart is showing heat, it's dismissed as FI by some. When it shows unsettled, it's like "it will happen."

 

EDIT: Read Knocker's post which suggests that any troughing is likely to be transient.

I don't see any negativity - then again the ignore function is a well thought out device 

Anyway, GFS looks the extreme solution this morning, but the behavior of the trough to the SW will likely not be pinned down just yet.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

thing is unsettled more common than settled, so more likely to come off at 240

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I just don't get all this negativity with charts that simply won't verify.

Synoptically, a lot of things would have to fall perfectly into place to get a trough stuck over us again. And it's in deep FI anyway. The models do not have a handle on how this hot air will interact with the trough. Anything could happen after that.

When a 240 chart is showing heat, it's dismissed as FI by some. When it shows unsettled, it's like "it will happen."

 

EDIT: Read Knocker's post which suggests that any troughing is likely to be transient.

 I think you’ll find most are a little burnt by the last round of ‘transient’ troughing which we’ve barely recovered from. Almost all the models bar a number of big GFS outliers are pretty unsettled with a serious threat of us getting anchored under low pressure yet again through next week. I write this as looking forward another day in the mid teens and copious amounts of rain when only a few days back many were ramping a return to summer which clearly hasn’t happened and was always likely to be another easterly sliding warm spell......

[Mr Frost]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

 I think you’ll find most are a little burnt by the last round of ‘transient’ troughing which we’ve barely recovered from. Almost all the models bar a number of big GFS outliers are pretty unsettled with a serious threat of us getting anchored under low pressure yet again through next week. I write this as looking forward another day in the mid teens and copious amounts of rain when only a few days back many were ramping a return to summer which clearly hasn’t happened and was always likely to be another easterly sliding warm spell......

Indeed - the thing is when a chart is showing heat at 240 it has come to nothing. (That’s why it gets dismissed)

Plus I agree with the last bits - few folk have been saying Summer is arriving or just around the corner for the past 18 days! Even before that timeframe we kept hearing Summer type weather was on the cards - again came to diddly squat.

The thing is Summer weather (proper hot and sunny weather) will arrive eventually! 

The majority of the UK and Ireland have had a shocking first 18 days of meteorological Summer so far and apart from a couple of days here and there in the Southeast of England there is not much hope for the rest of us heading into July.

People aren’t dismissing things just for a wind up - the proof is in the pudding. (So far this Summer) 

How I wish this would become reality!

 

Can’t take another late April type day of sunshine and showers with temperatures of 15 degrees!

It’s the bloody 18th June - bring on the Summer heat!!!!! 

 

[Man With Beard]

Looks like the first genuine tease of the summer coming up

The questions as always are - how fast will the trough push through, and will it cut off below a ridge to the north? If there's any delay in the trough getting to the UK, we may have our first shot at 30C for the year. A fast moving trough, and it's back to the brollies. 

[northwestsnow]

EC mean shows temps recovering to normal or just above normal at times right through to day 10-

 

 

[knocker]

The EPS men anomaly does quickly revert to the ridge into south west Greenland/trough central Atlantic routine.Thus an upper westerly flow across the Atlantic portending changeable, and temps around average, weather with the day to day detail rather dependent on the phasing of the Pm and Tm airmasses.

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

Once again the gfs Ops run is part of 5/6 outliers that bifurcate the ensemble pack and hold the cutoff in a favourable position to the southwest and pump an outrageously warm airmass in our direction. The majority of the ensembles are much more progressive and as has low pressure pretty much over the UK and very cool/wet. GEM also backs a very unsettled spell and UKMO at 144hrs appears to going down that route. All eyes on ECM however it looks like the plume scenario is the outlier currently so after potentially a couple of reasonable days at the weekend next week I think looks highly uncertain (probably something like a 75/25 split of favouring a poor outlook) given the spread across available models and their ensembles.

Irrespective of how it ends up here somewhere on the continent likely to see a dangerously hot spell with unusually high humidity, dew points above 25c and heat indices well into the 40s. Sweaty!

This seems a very good analysis of the situation to me. Looking at the D6-D10 frames of the ECM ensembles mean, the smart money, unfortunately, is to eventually get stuck with some sort of trough near the UK, with heights to the west and east pinning it in. In other words, there is the potential for another unsettled spell after an initial warm couple of days.

It would be unlucky bearing in mind how little troughing there is close in our vicinity, but it does seem to be a pattern that plagues the UK in some summers.

However, with such a small area of instability, there's a far greater chance that some areas may miss it this time, and should it get trapped even slightly off the west coast, a heatwave would be the prognosis instead. But like you say, atm I too put this at 75% trough dominance / 25% heatwave 

[knocker]

A quick update on today's precipitation and dew points

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean there's still a chance of a plume early next week, at least for the south / southeast and day 10 doesn't look bad with the azores ridge building in towards southern uk.

[StormChaseUK]

00Z GFS looks good next week, models are downplaying temps I think

[Frosty.]

The Gem 0z has no appetite for summer..more like autumn.

[mb018538]

14 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

00Z GFS looks good next week, models are downplaying temps I think

It does, but:



Probably 75% of ensemble members don't go for this at all and keep things around average. As @Man With Beard stated above, it's probably sitting at 75% probability of the trough winning out, and 25% chance of something hotter like the 00z.

The mean SLP is dragged down to 1010mb by the end of the month, which would indicate the trough being the winner.

[mb018538]

Anyone up for 24c 850s? 6z gfs is.....ludicrous run. Chuck in the bin.

[Guest]

Well GFS 06Z is clearly not very well. At the same time take a snapshot as you'll likely never see 27c 850pha air modeled over the UK again. Its utterly bonkers. Heat Indices of 50C over the near continent with Temps of 36C & Dp's of 27c.

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well GFS 06Z is clearly not very well. At the same time take a snapshot as you'll likely never see 27c 850pha air modeled over the UK again. Its utterly bonkers. Heat Indices of 50C over the near continent with Temps of 36C & Dp's of 27c.

Its insane. Probably the hottest run I’ve ever seen for 850s in the UK.

As crazy as it is and very unlikely, cluster 4 at day 9 matches up pretty well, with around a 1 in 6 chance of happening.

Unfortunately the biggest cluster is still what the Op and gem showed on the 00z with the trough stuck over the UK.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Its insane. Probably the hottest run I’ve ever seen for 850s in the UK.

As crazy as it is and very unlikely, cluster 4 at day 9 matches up pretty well, with around a 1 in 6 chance of happening.

Unfortunately the biggest cluster is still what the Op and gem showed on the 00z with the trough stuck over the UK.

25C 850pha has never occurred over the UK. The peak days i.e. 03//08/90, 10/08/03, 19/07/06, 01/07/15 have uppers in the low twenties. 

Synoptically and with dry ground the 06Z GFS Ops would be the run to get the UK to 40C. Shame it'll never happen. Be prepared to see the biggest outlier you've ever seen. 

[Lincs Observation]

17 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Its insane. Probably the hottest run I’ve ever seen for 850s in the UK.

As crazy as it is and very unlikely, cluster 4 at day 9 matches up pretty well, with around a 1 in 6 chance of happening.

Unfortunately the biggest cluster is still what the Op and gem showed on the 00z with the trough stuck over the UK.

Good morning I don’t tend to comment in here as I lack some of the more scientific knowledge however I did comment back at the back end of winter that probability did air on the side of the current setup in relation to the trend set up over winter and spring, so my point is that It could be reasonable to expect a once in a 100 year event type thing with the models above why not. With all that heat building on the continent and only 27 miles to separate us it is therefore a distinct possibility that an unprecedented event could be indeed conceivable.

no science just an educated observation which would not surprise.

LO

Edited June 18, 2019 by Lincs Observation

[Lincs Observation]

10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

25C 850pha has never occurred over the UK. The peak days i.e. 03//08/90, 10/08/03, 19/07/06, 01/07/15 have uppers in the low twenties. 

Synoptically and with dry ground the 06Z GFS Ops would be the run to get the UK to 40C. Shame it'll never happen. Be prepared to see the biggest outlier you've ever seen. 

With the way global metrology and climate is going I say Never is a word to be used lightly . I live in Lincolnshire, we have had an unprecedented 2 months rain in two days with a predicted months rain to fall overnight so weird stuff is already happening

Edited June 18, 2019 by Lincs Observation

[mushymanrob]

 

[summer blizzard]

 

12 minutes ago, Alderc said:

25C 850pha has never occurred over the UK. The peak days i.e. 03//08/90, 10/08/03, 19/07/06, 01/07/15 have uppers in the low twenties. 

Synoptically and with dry ground the 06Z GFS Ops would be the run to get the UK to 40C. Shame it'll never happen. Be prepared to see the biggest outlier you've ever seen. 

1990 and 2006 never actually breached 20C uppers. They were the culmination of spells and in the case of 1990, near perfect Synoptics.

[thestixx]

3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

 

It's an absoluteley incredible chart! we're talking about roads melting, rail tracks buckling! I don't beleive it will verify though until it's been plastered on the Express fromt page.

[Neil Harris]

2 minutes ago, thestixx said:

It's an absoluteley incredible chart! we're talking about roads melting, rail tracks buckling! I don't beleive it will verify though until it's been plastered on the Express fromt page.

The express did tweet a chart last night. Parts of it were black....