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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Quite a difference between icon and GFS regarding low pressure at day 6. GFS not devoloping it to the same extreme for starters..... And oh my god.... I can feel a plume coming on. Come on GFS don't let me down... Me deckchair is becoming a rust bucket. 

icon-0-168.png

gfs-0-174.png

gfs-1-174.png

could always buy a wooden deckchair instead

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
5 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

could always buy a wooden deckchair instead

Forget that... I've still got the splinters up me backside from the last one. I think better output today overall, I can tell by the much larger volume of folks browsing!! Eyes down for a good ECM. 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

EC will be interesting tonight, my gut feeling is it won't show the plume GFS is advertising - then again i have been known to be wrong, a lot more times than i'm right..

Key, as knocker posted previously, seems to surround the behavior of the troughing to to our south west..

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)

The GFS ens are swinging further towards a plume scenario early next week as the below swingometer shows. Not enough to declare a heatwave or anything along those lines but it is an emerging trend.

image.thumb.png.1dd4d1a23d532577ab5e12d896c0cd8c.png image.thumb.png.53c76268534f84d8fa87e1e466c9ea31.png

The hottest run early next week is P11 which is particularly bullish in bringing in warm uppers prior to a thundery breakdown. Few runs want to persist with the warmth like the OP but its not entirely without support. Globally not too much going on but good to see heat building up over Europe provided it doesn't fuel more copious rains...

image.thumb.png.5a54007a729d81dd90d17fb73ed74df4.png

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC will be interesting tonight, my gut feeling is it won't show the plume GFS is advertising - then again i have been known to be wrong, a lot more times than i'm right..

Key, as knocker posted previously, seems to surround the behavior of the troughing to to our south west..

Yes it will be interesting, the GEFS 12z mean is a close call, could miss the uk to the east but some members show us with a full on plume..of course, we don't want any more flooding but a plume brings that threat.

21_174_850tmp.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.5182ff93c04d57dce594c0527a06c16a.png

Toasty , esp for the SE!!

Toasty, toasty, very very toasty!:oldgood:

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Brace yourself Pete.... Edd Stone.... The Kent clipper is coming for you.... The day the earth melted...

ECM0-168.gif

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Brace yourself Pete.... Edd Stone.... The Kent clipper is coming for you.... The day the earth melted...

ECM0-168.gif

Very hot and humid for the SE ...

Little confidence of anything post 96hrs though if i'm honest..

Edited by northwestsnow
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Very hot and humid for the SE ...

Little confidence of anything post 96hrs though if i'm honest..

Yes NWS.. your correct mate... But I tell you what, its a hell of a lot more exciting than its been recently... Let's just hope some of it comes off..

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

The blocking to the NW becoming a pain by day 8 as the heat is shunted eastwards...

Don't want to see this trough getting stuck near us again thats for sure.

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The blocking to the NW becoming a pain by day 8 as the heat is shunted eastwards...

Don't want to see this trough getting stuck near us again thats for sure.

I reckon 144 is as far as it’s worth looking at the moment. Seems over keen to ridge the high to Greenland.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Not liking this guys... Heights building to the NW.. and a trough in situ... Looks to similar to recently for my liking... Let's hope its out of kilter with the mean. 

ECM1-216.gif

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Mr Frost Maestro

Mr Frost

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
Posted (edited)

09E532BF-F2CB-4393-90D5-0939877CEFA0.thumb.png.d1128dbf486f90b5a31916603047f906.png83378E0D-E194-416E-87CD-1B013143221C.thumb.png.59f90e722546a704c239037aa0aa03ca.png

As others have said..if only that pool of insane uppers would push Northwest we would all be basking in proper Summer heat! Instead it shoots away east to bake the usual places for days/weeks on end! 

It’s the equivalent of a 24 to 48 hours potent Northerly toppler (Remember those?) in Winter! 

However - at least some folk within the UK and Ireland will get to experience some real heat this month no matter how short term! (Hopefully - knowing our luck it will just miss us)

Edited by Mr Frost
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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Not liking this guys... Heights building to the NW.. and a trough in situ... Looks to similar to recently for my liking... Let's hope its out of kilter with the mean. 

ECM1-216.gif

Looks like a very unlikely evolution to me from the 144 chart.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

You have to be in it to win it and the Ecm 12z gives us a fighting chance of very warm / hot plume in a week's time, very humid too but then it goes flash bang flash bang..other output also supports it so it could happen!

144_thickuk.png

168_thickuk.png

168_mslp850.png

168_thick.png

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Dear lord the end of the ecm is horrendous tonight. Takes us right back to square one with huge Greenland and arctic highs linked up and us stuck under the trough yet again. Surely it’s not going to go this way again!

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

The ecm has been promoting this rapid amplification of the subtropical high zones at the end of the det since midday yesterday and on the previous two runs the EPS has quite quickly de amplified so it is a matter of waiting to see if tonight follows that pattern

Edited by knocker
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Mr Frost Maestro

Mr Frost

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
Posted (edited)

ECM 240...

@ANYWEATHER one for you mate. 

EA977236-E8E9-415D-A5CD-6E4ADD2078C8.thumb.png.e0323fb76943b23d83dbde727d4bbae3.png30834194-A856-40BB-8C85-74C55D252D35.thumb.png.494774d63be7934103e086dfb432d9a1.png

This would be a kick in the Betty Swallocks if it became reality!

Great Winter charts though! ☃️

Edited by Mr Frost
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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted (edited)
50 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Dear lord the end of the ecm is horrendous tonight. Takes us right back to square one with huge Greenland and arctic highs linked up and us stuck under the trough yet again. Surely it’s not going to go this way again!

Never seen a day 10 ECM chart verify. Even 144 is different across the models.

The main thing is that there are more and more plume options in the semi-reliable. 

Edited by Djdazzle
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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted

As others have said that ECM at T240 is a stinker . Luckily too far out to take seriously.

Growing support for a plume on Monday it seems but FI starts next Monday...

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