Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

GFS precipitation charts have been wildly wrong at T6, so I wouldn’t get hung up about them too much.

There does seem to be a shift towards more heat this morning.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
27 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

At least the rain would be warm with +21 T850's across the SE!!:shok:

06_276_ukthickness850.png

21c uppers would bring 2m temps into their high 30s or 40C.  Very unlikely it will happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 minute ago, 38.5*C said:

21c uppers would bring 2m temps into their high 30s or 40C.  Very unlikely it will happen.

Wouldn't suprise me though, going from 10c to 30+c...in the uk there an old wife's tale..... Expect the unexpected.... 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

eh? an outlier?... the previous 2 gfs runs also had a transitory plume later next week.

various anomaly charts knocker posted clearly show an expected troughing to our near southwest, over biscay, so whilst these juicy charts the gfs are throwing up may well not verify exactly as currently predicted, something similar IS possible.

so going off current expectations, something like what the gfs is suggesting might well happen... not 'one for the garbage bin' at all, but something to keep an eye on.

Quite unsurprisingly the Ops run from the GFS 06Z is one of two or three ensembles that are pretty significant outliers from the pack through. The majority indicate the cutoff will either not influence things and keep us under a more settled but cooler north westerly or sit directly over or just to the south of the UK advecting the main axis of the warm, moist and highly unstable plume up through central Europe in most part missing the SE of England unlike the Ops run which stalls almost in the 'Goldilocks' position. 

Advancing west to east Cardiff, London, Amsterdam & Frankfurt shows a dramatically increasing chance of being affected by hot conditions and associated plume depicted by an increasing number of hot ensemble members and dramatically increasing mean. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Wouldn't suprise me though, going from 10c to 30+c...in the uk there an old wife's tale..... Expect the unexpected.... 

Given the bizarre weather we’ve had in recent years, it wouldn’t surprise me either!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Spot the outlier:

image.thumb.png.7ee1fca3f968c85230106f066a8c8bce.png

Just another couple of weeks of temperatures hovering a couple of degrees above or below average, some sunshine and some rain.

Most of the clusters heading into July look average to bad at this range too - barring number 4:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019061700_360.

Nothing much to really cheer at present.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking through the GEFS 6z I wouldn't rule out some spanish plums..I mean plumes..it's not just the op!!

GFSP10EU06_270_2.png

GFSP13EU06_270_2.png

GFSP15EU06_264_2.png

GFSP17EU06_288_2.png

GFSP11EU06_372_2.png

GFSP14EU06_372_2.png

GFSP19EU06_384_2.png

GFSOPEU06_276_2.png

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Here are the 06Z ensembles:

image.thumb.png.66dd2c456d0eea677bf756e06efcabd5.png Op's an outlier, early on, but it's already 21-22C in the London Area.

image.thumb.png.7abd410141a3b50f61d883468b112195.pngimage.thumb.png.ac8160c95e5da61c55f3e0fb09c4f13d.png FI starts by Day 8

 

image.thumb.png.afac300646520521da95833cc9995c62.png No water shortage!

Edited by Ed Stone
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

And bully's special prize....

No... Not a fitted kitchen.... 

Our very own brand new winamau GFS dartboard low....

gfs-0-288.png

RigidCircularDarklingbeetle-max-1mb.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

It wouldn't because it's just illustrating the characteristics of the airmass which is just brushing the south east and not the surface temperature, Because the boundary layer of the temp profile will be effected by CAA. and cannot be calculated by using the DALR

Yes, so many factors to consider. Another that we've also not had to consider for a couple of years now is that if any warmer airmass can become entrenched over the UK its going to take several days in the most out of the incoming solar radiation. With such wet ground evaporation will limit surface heating to an extent, could make a difference of a couple of C to Tmax's early on in any warm spell. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yes, so many factors to consider. Another that we've also not had to consider for a couple of years now is that if any warmer airmass can become entrenched over the UK its going to take several days in the most out of the incoming solar radiation. With such wet ground evaporation will limit surface heating to an extent, could make a difference of a couple of C to Tmax's early on in any warm spell. 

Exactly - a one day clipper of 850s of 15-20c won't instantly just equate to a 35-40c day, it isn't that simple. When you factor in that it's been soaking wet in June, that will probably chip a degree or two off. For the UK to breach 40c i'm certain we'd need a 2003 style run-up again with a dry spring, and a long stretch of heat before the peak maximum. It won't just come as a one day special. Plus the charts shown on the 6z look very unstable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Exactly - a one day clipper of 850s of 15-20c won't instantly just equate to a 35-40c day, it isn't that simple. When you factor in that it's been soaking wet in June, that will probably chip a degree or two off. For the UK to breach 40c i'm certain we'd need a 2003 style run-up again with a dry spring, and a long stretch of heat before the peak maximum. It won't just come as a one day special. Plus the charts shown on the 6z look very unstable.

Last year was the year to hit 40C but ironically the extent of the blocking often meant we produced our own heat through day on day heating and didn't really advect any massively high 850's. I think we had our warmest day here in Bournemouth at 31.8C under 850's of 'just' 11/12C. A several days of 20C uppers would have breached the 38.5C from 2010 in the usual spots. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Exactly - a one day clipper of 850s of 15-20c won't instantly just equate to a 35-40c day, it isn't that simple. When you factor in that it's been soaking wet in June, that will probably chip a degree or two off. For the UK to breach 40c i'm certain we'd need a 2003 style run-up again with a dry spring, and a long stretch of heat before the peak maximum. It won't just come as a one day special. Plus the charts shown on the 6z look very unstable.

It also depends on the temperatures over the continent too. If the heat has really built up over France before arriving over the UK, then the wet June isnt really an issue. May and June 2015 were pretty cool and wet but all we needed was 1 day to break the July maxima record.

That was pretty much a one day wonder helped by heat build up over Spain and southern France in preceding days.

I don't believe the 06z will come off but it is looking increasingly likely some heat will move North through western Europe. Whether it makes it to the UK is another matter so I think next Monday is FI at the moment.

In the meantime an uneventful week but not a write off. The 06z pushes those thunderstorms a little further east meaning the rainfall totals for the next 7 days are nothing to write home about. Up to T192 I'd give the GFS  a 6.5 out of 10 as it produces a nice weekend and shows potential heat later.

image.thumb.png.67ed0bec159573da46aa92ecae10d819.pngimage.thumb.png.6fd854e0ee226eafa9d6e6b14336ab1b.png  

Edited by Quicksilver1989
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Exactly - a one day clipper of 850s of 15-20c won't instantly just equate to a 35-40c day, it isn't that simple. When you factor in that it's been soaking wet in June, that will probably chip a degree or two off. For the UK to breach 40c i'm certain we'd need a 2003 style run-up again with a dry spring, and a long stretch of heat before the peak maximum. It won't just come as a one day special. Plus the charts shown on the 6z look very unstable.

A sample sounding for the south east at that time. Colder air being advected in the boundary layer plus some cloud

sounding.thumb.png.3b0daae58fdc8f22b8141569338b6d3e.png

Edited by knocker
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I noticed on the 6z operational with those astonishing +21 850's the 2m temp was also 21c due to the cloud and rain whereas just across the channel with similar uppers the 2m temp was 33c in probably plenty of scorching sunshine so impressive uppers don't necessarily translate to heatwave temperatures!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I noticed on the 6z operational with those astonishing +21 850's the 2m temp was also 21c due to the cloud and rain whereas just across the channel with similar uppers the 2m temp was 33c in probably plenty of scorching sunshine so impressive uppers don't necessarily translate to heatwave temperatures!

Also the 33C is probably limited by the outrageous moisture content even under sunshine, dew points of 28C..........That combo gives a heat index of 43C so would be incredibly unlikely to transpire. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
58 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Exactly - a one day clipper of 850s of 15-20c won't instantly just equate to a 35-40c day,

1st July 2015? That was a one day clipper that went right into the mid 30s terroritory given the soaking wet months beforehand. Lots of cloud around NW England on this day and still resulted in 30 to 33C.

 

AVN_1_2015070100_2_png.gif

Edited by 38.5*C
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

1st July 2015? That was a one day clipper that went right into the mid 30s terroritory given the soaking wet months beforehand.

 

AVN_1_2015070100_2_png.gif

Not really, the day before (30/06/2015) topped out at 30.3c @ Heathrow, 4 of the previous 5 days from the 25-29th June reached 25C and there was only 12.6MM of rain the whole of June. Can't really being compared.

Also May only had 26mm of rain so actually the ground would have been primed for high maxes...

Edited by Alderc
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
2 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

1st July 2015? That was a one day clipper that went right into the mid 30s terroritory given the soaking wet months beforehand.

 

AVN_1_2015070100_2_png.gif

That's partially true - May was fairly wet, though concentrated more in the N/W.

June 2015 was actually very dry, especially in the London area. Northolt only had 7mm all month for example - hardly soaking! 

It was also warm on the 29th June, and very hot on the 30th June - 32.5c at Heathrow, so it wasn't quite a one day event. Certainly went downhill very quickly after though! Rest of July and August were very poor.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Just to add a bit more on the EC clusters this morning - potential for a few good days at the end of June very much there but not expected to be much more than that:

25th June: The recurring problem for the UK - a cut-off trough very near the UK

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019061700_192.

27th June: Fortunately, the trough could well be short-lived and shallow, allowing the opportunity of a few nice days at the end of the month (cluster 3 keeps the trough going, though, a 30% option)

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019061700_240.

29th June: ridging may well pull west again here. Difficult to pinpoint details on this. Possibility of an unsettled NW flow (e.g. cluster 2), or - if the ridge retreats a long way west, a chance that the trough may stall to the west (clusters 1 and 4, maybe 5?) allowing some parts of the UK to remain warm/dry.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019061700_288.

2nd July (the anomaly colours change to reflect different norms in July, btw): a trough anomaly setting up to the east in clusters 1, 2 and 3 - this could usher in yet another below average start to a month, with only cluster 4 (13%) clearly positive for the UK.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019061700_360.

However - the good news - the Greenland ridge has gone pop, which may be good news for the rest of the month

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

That's partially true - May was fairly wet, though concentrated more in the N/W.

June 2015 was actually very dry, especially in the London area. Northolt only had 7mm all month for example - hardly soaking! 

It was also warm on the 29th June, and very hot on the 30th June - 32.5c at Heathrow, so it wasn't quite a one day event. Certainly went downhill very quickly after though! Rest of July and August were very poor.

I nearly fell for that one, the 32.5C was actually recorded at 9am GMT on the 1st July I believe but fell into the prior days 09Z-09Z Max/min reporting.....

No idea how I remembered that given I don't remember my own name most mornings...

Edited by Alderc
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Just Model Discussion please, Post's like above are more suited to the Summer thread.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A glance at the latest wrf which incorporates part of the unstable period in the south east. I appreciate the rainfall totals could be well out but it gives an idea

totalprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.27468db159c6378dc69c3cb94c2bc352.pnglpi_d02_46.thumb.png.3afb24a5d03c174b47d8668c24cf8bfb.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
15 minutes ago, knocker said:

A glance at the latest wrf which incorporates part of the unstable period in the south east. I appreciate the rainfall totals could be well out but it gives an idea

totalprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.27468db159c6378dc69c3cb94c2bc352.pnglpi_d02_46.thumb.png.3afb24a5d03c174b47d8668c24cf8bfb.png

Interesting not seen the second map/lightning prediction before is that new?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...