Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Another decent day 10 Ecm mean with the azores high lurking with intent... Fingers crossed the end of June and into July will bring at least a taste of proper summer, it's been really poor so far but there's plenty of time left!!

Aye, Jon, summer dosen't really start until Wimbledon at the earliest, and Sept is summerier than June

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, Jon, summer dosen't really start until Wimbledon at the earliest, and Sept is summerier than June

Interesting theory but we have had some lovely weather in may and june in recent years..

If anything August has been a poor month in general during the christmas pudding, i will agree a nice sept is often a hallmark of a poor summer though 

Probably drifting off topic ,i dont see much evidence of a stable anticyclone looking at the 00z runs, the azores high looks set to make an attempt at ridging in by day 9 or 10, although the appetite to reinvigorate northern blocking is a concern.

Probably at this juncture someone like Tamara would be able to offer more insight..

Edited June 17, 2019 by northwestsnow

[mushymanrob]

the azores high... saint or sinner?... im in two minds about the azores high, when its stuck there just to our near west/southwest. it would prevent a washout, but it would also prevent a heatwave. so the jurys out on this, and its no unusual for the azores high/the azores enemy , to be sat there for a considerable period.

 

[Mr Frost]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

 

I will confess some of the content is above my pay grade so to speak, but such a knowledgable poster is invaluable for someone like myself eager to develop my understanding of telecommunications etc ..

Tell you what I have learned from the teleconnections (thanks @Downburst blame @northwestsnow for that one! ) this past Winter, Spring and Summer so far...whatever outlook they are pointing to...expect the opposite!  

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

Tell you what I have learned from the telecommunications this past Winter, Spring and Summer so far...whatever outlook they are pointing to...expect the opposite!  

Of course it is one piece of a complex jigsaw..

There is a miriad of drivers,including  ssts (which i happen to think are overlooked somewhat).

 

[StormChaseUK]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, Jon, summer dosen't really start until Wimbledon at the earliest, and Sept is summerier than June

Do you celebrate Christmas in March?

[Mr Frost]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

 

I will confess some of the content is above my pay grade so to speak, but such a knowledgable poster is invaluable for someone like myself eager to develop my understanding of telecommunications etc ..

Telecommunications!? Imagine being daft enough to type that...

[mb018538]

27 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

the azores high... saint or sinner?... im in two minds about the azores high, when its stuck there just to our near west/southwest. it would prevent a washout, but it would also prevent a heatwave. so the jurys out on this, and its no unusual for the azores high/the azores enemy , to be sat there for a considerable period.

 

This isn't a good chart really - you certainly wouldn't get a nice settled warm spell from this sort of set up. Massive heat ridge out to the east, and too much high pressure to the west of Greenland just spells temporary ridges. Nothing in the longer term ensembles either to suggest summer proper is going to land on our shores any time soon. 

[Coopsy]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

Another decent day 10 Ecm mean with the azores high lurking with intent... Fingers crossed the end of June and into July will bring at least a taste of proper summer, it's been really poor so far but there's plenty of time left!!

Indeed - even the heatwave last year didn't get going until June 23 officially. I know the spring was also good though. The weather has a way of balancing itself. I strongly expect a sunny and warm second half - August and September - fingers crossed.

[Frosty.]

Decent finish to the Gem 0z with a strong azores / atlantic ridge extending across southern..indeed most of the uk..this would provide some welcome respite from all the deluges / flooding!!

Edited June 17, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Somewhere in Lincolnshire might hit 20c today the rest of the week struggles to pass 20c even in sub-tropical London.

This must be the longest run in June in a long time without getting comfortably into the 20s even in the SE 

 

 

 

The upper teens will be pleasant enough with the sun now at its strongest as the longest day nears but the lack of easily getting into the 20s is very unusual for the time of year.

Maybe July will offer something hotter

It seems that parts of Kent and Essex have already surpassed 20C, SS?

Anywho, a rather spiffing pattern suggested for early next week:

 

Edited June 17, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It seems that parts of Kent and Essex have already surpassed 20C, SS?

Anywho, a rather spiffing pattern suggested for early next week:

 

Yep. Looks like the cloud has broken up quite quickly in those areas and the temps are responding nicely 

[StormChaseUK]

Some serious heat in France next week - look how close it comes to the UK , would only take a slight shift ..

Some parts of northern France are 33C at 9am and 40C by 3pm  I don't see how heat of this power can
get so close without influencing our weather at all . 

Edited June 17, 2019 by StormChaseUK
edit

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Some serious heat in France next week - look how close it comes to the UK , would only take a slight shift ..

Some parts of northern France are 33C at 9am and 40C by 3pm  I don't see how heat of this power can
get so close without influencing our weather at all . 

I don't know about France...but there could be some serious heat in parts of Southern England, too? They've likely already wet themselves, down at the Daily Express!

  

[mb018538]

The 00z ECM clusters:

Lots of high pressure around at day 10 - nagging high anomalies to the NW again present:



Day 12:


 

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I don't know about France...but there could be some serious heat in parts of Southern England, too? They've likely already wet themselves, down at the Daily Express!

  

Did you check the corresponding precipitation chart which goes with that?......

 

[Guest]

Oh no you don't Mr GFS 06z, we are not fooling for that one again with a cut off low dragging in seriously juicy air through the early and middle part of next week. Been have several time already in the past 4-6weeks at this 8-10day range.

The whole run is probably going the biggest outlier you've ever seen. In its craziness it also produces dew points on the near continent of 29C along with LI's of -18 next Thursday before at the very end of run dumping us back under the influence of a developing trough.....one for the garbage can.....

Edited June 17, 2019 by Alderc

[Frosty.]

I mentioned about the idea of repeated plumes yesterday and the 6z operational shows this..great for a BBQ but keep the brolly and boat handy!!!

Edited June 17, 2019 by Jon Snow

[mushymanrob]

9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Oh no you don't Mr GFS 06z, we are not fooling for that one again with a cut off low dragging in seriously juicy air through the early and middle part of next week. Been have several time already in the past 4-6weeks at this 8-10day range.

The whole run is probably going the biggest outlier you've ever seen. In its craziness it also produces dew points on the near continent of 29C along with LI's of -18 next Thursday before at the very end of run dumping us back under the influence of a developing trough.....one for the garbage can.....

eh? an outlier?... the previous 2 gfs runs also had a transitory plume later next week.

various anomaly charts knocker posted clearly show an expected troughing to our near southwest, over biscay, so whilst these juicy charts the gfs are throwing up may well not verify exactly as currently predicted, something similar IS possible.

so going off current expectations, something like what the gfs is suggesting might well happen... not 'one for the garbage bin' at all, but something to keep an eye on.

[StormChaseUK]

We are in a better position now with the biscay low pumping up hotter area.  Previously hotter air has just filtered east with the UK acting as the Biscay style low.  When France heats up we usually do get some overspill

[Methuselah]

22 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Did you check the corresponding precipitation chart which goes with that?......

 

Given the 'reliability' of GFS precipitation charts at that range (even worse than T850s?) I thought it best I didn't bother...

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Given the 'reliability' of GFS precipitation charts at that range (even worse than T850s?) I thought it best I didn't bother...

At least the rain would be warm with +21 T850's across the SE!!

Edited June 17, 2019 by Jon Snow

[knocker]

15 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

eh? an outlier?... the previous 2 gfs runs also had a transitory plume later next week.

various anomaly charts knocker posted clearly show an expected troughing to our near southwest, over biscay, so whilst these juicy charts the gfs are throwing up may well not verify exactly as currently predicted, something similar IS possible.

so going off current expectations, something like what the gfs is suggesting might well happen... not 'one for the garbage bin' at all, but something to keep an eye on.

Indeed mushy

You can see by  looking at the GEFS anomaly and det at 0600 that it is very much a knife edge position vis the orientation and position of the ridges/trough. Of course this is the pattern as the gfs sees it and not a prediction

 

Edited June 17, 2019 by knocker

[mountain shadow]

17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Given the 'reliability' of GFS precipitation charts at that range (even worse than T850s?) I thought it best I didn't bother...

Well, I thought it was underplaying the rain to be honest. Hot dry continental air mixing with cooler Atlantic air. Torrential thunderstorms and widespread flooding if you ask me.

If hope that GFS 6z is an outlier for rain. We're getting drowned over here.

[danm]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

It seems that parts of Kent and Essex have already surpassed 20C, SS?

 

Yep, has turned into a beautiful day down here in the SE. Warm and sunny, 21c currently.