Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[StormChaseUK]

That is a huge temperature difference. 

In winter that would be 20C in France  minus 5 in UK 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

19 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

That is a huge temperature difference. 

In winter that would be 20C in France  minus 5 in UK 

11C in NW England at 18:00 on a late June evening???? Gotta be impossible for it come off otherwise that is remarkably poor and falls even worser than 2012 as far as temperatures are concerned.

[Daniel*]

Well the pub run certainly wasn’t boring, I’m not sure what the new GFS is drinking but I’ll have what it’s on worthy of a mention. A ‘Death Valley’ ridge with severe 40C+ heat affecting France and Southern Europe. 28C 850hpa temps over parts of France with 24C isotherm making it to Kent & East Sussex coast. 

Chance? 0.0000001%  

[danm]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Well the pub run certainly wasn’t boring, I’m not sure what the new GFS is drinking but I’ll have what it’s on worthy of a mention. A ‘Death Valley’ ridge with severe 40C+ heat affecting France and Southern Europe. 28C 850hpa temps over parts of France with 24C isotherm making it to Kent & East Sussex coast. 

Chance? 0.0000001%  

 

I’ll take even a watered down version of that!

[Gimmecold]

All this talk of loving / wishing for heat is a bit alienating to a year round coldie like me. Some of us love the rain!

Last summer just spoke of impending climatolgical disaster to me. Careful what you wish for.

Sorry if this offends anyone. I won't post again.

[tinybill]

this  the last thing  our area needs  at the  moment  bbc  are talking about  flash flooding  tue/wed

[knocker]

The NH 500mb profile and North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 WV image

The triple point will clear northern Scotland this morning so the showery precipitation will ease for a while. But another low and associated front swinging around the base of the upper trough will bring more concentrated rain into Scotland. and to a lesser extent N. Ireland, during the afternoon. Further south the weakening cold front is straddled across Wales and northern England so cloudy with some showery rain continuing in these regions, but dying out later.

The rain over Scotland will die out this evening but another band will effect the north west in the early hours of tomorrow morning

This rain will track east during the day but you will have noted some heavy showers ingressing the south coast These will track north east through Tuesday, perhaps with the odd thunderstorm, courtesy of a shallow low and associated fronts moving north from France in the warm and humid air being pumped up by the low over Biscay

Overnight Tuesday and through Wednesday the thundery low tracks into the North Sea and in this period there could well be some quite intense downpours in the south east quadrant of England.

All of this clears away overnight and by Thursday the country is back under the auspices of the upper low so a day of sunshine and showers as the odd trough runs around in the circulation

By Friday the subtropical high zones are stirring and a regions has mover across the south of the country with the showers mainly concentrated in the north and eastern coastal regions

 

 

Edited June 17, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

According to the gfs this is the position at T144. Ergo a very slack gradient over the country for the weekend with some showers around, mainly in the west before a band of rain effects the south coast by midday Monday. But that's a long way off/

Impressive WAA into Europe

 

[Guest]

Well not sure how this week went from having a warm spell in the middle to tomorrow having maxes in the mid teens down here tomorrow and rain pretty much all day. The only positive thing is that GFS appears to planting a developing convective system around midnight tues into Wednesday over the mid channel area as the destabilising plume fires And moves inland through Dorset/Hampshire. Despite slightly better Synoptics and rise in rise pressure generally looks like the south could to be close to the cut that wants to form and again we are looking at least a week until we reach 20c which will have over 20days since we last reached that mark, which is in turn from what I can see one of the longest runs in the last 50yrs of sub 20c maxes in summer, terrible. 

Just adding an upper level warmth early next week is firstly an outlier in the ensembles which are at best are disappointing and secondly irrelevant due to cloud and rain and any warmth doesn’t get effectively transferred to the surface. 

Edited June 17, 2019 by Alderc

[knocker]

The GEFS anomaly this morning pretty much as expected so more settled with temps around average but the detail yet to be sorted

[knocker]

The ecm has transient ridging over Saturday but is quickly shunted out of the way as the next trough approaches from the west with frontal rain into the south west by midday Sunday

 

[Guest]

ECM frustrating into the weekend with the UK wedged on the wrong side of the northerly nudging Azores high and to the west of another and probably the most significant push of heat this year into Central Europe. 40c likely across eastern Germany, Poland and the lowland areas of Austria/Switzerland etc. 

ECM also keen to build Greeny heights by day 9/10. The pattern could easily lead to another stagnant trough over the uk as the north east extension to the Azores high that had ridged towards us would collapse back westwards. Still a long way to worry about that....

Edited June 17, 2019 by Alderc

[Frosty.]

Plenty of warm weather on the Ecm 00z operational, indeed very warm at times, especially during the second half of the run further s / e and occasionally very humid with a risk of thunderstorms but also some fine weather with sunny spells..azores high ridging in later.

Edited June 17, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Having just read through two pages of 'the thoughts of doomsayers anonymous', I find (quelle surprise) that the actual model is nowhere near as bad as the commentary...ensembles:

  

 

 

So, there you have it: no major heatwave, no major coldwave, and FI post Day 8...

[Summer Sun]

Looking at UKMO this week doesn't as wet as last week for England but given how saturated the ground is even 30mm of rain could easily see some surface flooding

NW Scotland could see the most rain this week with locally 80mm to 90mm possible by the weekend

Edited June 17, 2019 by Summer Sun

[northwestsnow]

All looks quite complicated this morning, in particular the trough to the SW - so from my POV little confidence in anything post 144 ...

An improving picture looks favorite but still with some showers around in a slack set up.

Either way our residential (and incredibly annoying) trough looks set to lift out in the near term ..

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Having just read through two pages of 'the thoughts of doomsayers anonymous', I find (quelle surprise) that the actual model is nowhere near as bad as the commentary...ensembles:

  

 

 

So, there you have it: no major heatwave, no major coldwave, and FI post Day 8...

Great minds think alike Pete

Edited June 17, 2019 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[Methuselah]

EC NH500s at T120 and T240: an improving picture...

 

[knocker]

The low west of Biscay is an area of interest over the next 48 hours

[Summer Sun]

Somewhere in Lincolnshire might hit 20c today the rest of the week struggles to pass 20c even in sub-tropical London.

This must be the longest run in June in a long time without getting comfortably into the 20s even in the SE 

 

 

 

The upper teens will be pleasant enough with the sun now at its strongest as the longest day nears but the lack of easily getting into the 20s is very unusual for the time of year.

Maybe July will offer something hotter

Edited June 17, 2019 by Summer Sun

[northwestsnow]

As posted above, the EC and its mean does provide an improving picture,- todays mean and then day 10 mean..

No heatwave but an improvement, although in the interests of fairness this is open to change..

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Somewhere in Lincolnshire might hit 20c today the rest of the week struggles to pass 20c even in sub-tropical London.

This must be the longest run in June in a long time without getting comfortably into the 20s even in the SE 

The upper teens will be pleasant enough with the sun now at its strongest as the longest day nears but the lack of easily getting into the 20s is very unusual for the time of year.

Maybe July will offer something hotter

I think i read on twitter this June is the wettest or in broad terms , the crappiest, for 40 years in the UK..

The scenario of the green circle over us and blocking to the North west is the worst case scenario for summer lovers as it is(as we have seen) a very entrenched pattern and not easy to escape from.

And when we do , it usually involves a slack pattern, as depicted by EC 00Z..

Edited June 17, 2019 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

The EPS mean medium range anomaly pretty as expected after some mid Atlantic transient ridging, portending changeable and average temp weather

Edited June 17, 2019 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

The 00z London ECM mean backs some warmer temps to start next week Tuesday and Wednesday this week will have some warmer air in the south and east but that'll come with some potentially torrential rain/thunderstorms next weeks' warmth might be with something drier

[Frosty.]

Another decent day 10 Ecm mean with the azores high lurking with intent... Fingers crossed the end of June and into July will bring at least a taste of proper summer, it's been really poor so far but there's plenty of time left!!