Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Come on, uppers are pretty irrelevant if stuck under heavy rain, might make difference of 3/4c. 12c and raining, 15c and raining - who cares...

still hopefully fair enough away to end up being completely different than the currently output.....

My point is there is a big discrepancy between the 2 models.. If we had those uppers with sunny spells, then that's warm... Obviously it's gonna be more disappointing with heavy rain. But the one model is making a big deal of low pressure, the other one, not so much... 

And in all fairness its rained that much here in the last 9 days... I'm slowly beginning to lose interest! Roll on winter... And - 20 uppers....

Edited June 16, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Polar Maritime]

Well as you talk of it Matt, Net-wx shows possible Wintry sorts over the far North on the longest day.. Obviously with elevation.

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Thanks PM.. hopefully an early taste of things to come later this year!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Well as you talk of it Matt, Net-wx shows possible Wintry sorts over the far North on the longest day.. Obviously with elevation.

 

 

and the shortest day snow charts likely look exactly the same

[knocker]

Skipping the short range for the moment as the gfs loses our upper trough over the weekend to be replaced by weak ridging. Certainly a tad more settled and drier but an ideal recipe for unstable incursions from the south. We will have to see the ecm take and how it pans out with the ens

And this is along the lines of earlier comments

Edited June 16, 2019 by knocker

[Methuselah]

Still signs (however far-off) of a better pattern materialising in time for month's end:

 

Taken on its own, it would be about as much use as a fish-net condom...but with what Those Who Cannot Be Named are suggesting, maybe not?

[Frosty.]

Whisper it but there's a chance of another plume either next sunday or the start of the following week according to the GEFS 12z!

Edited June 16, 2019 by Jon Snow

[StormChaseUK]

44 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not sure about that. next monday 12 degrees? to me this worse than 6Z

GFS overdoing it I would say. At least 14C or 15C . Notice derek from the bbc has just said on Twitter that this is the coldest June for 141 years officially.  So GFS might not be wrong 

Edited June 16, 2019 by StormChaseUK

[Don]

17 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Well as you talk of it Matt, Net-wx shows possible Wintry sorts over the far North on the longest day.. Obviously with elevation.

 

 

Booked a holiday in the Cairngorms from this Thursday for a week.  Something to keep an eye on!

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Whisper it but there's a chance of another plume either next sunday or the start of the following week according to the GEFS 12z!

Not only that, Karl -- the far reaches of the 12Z suggest some AZH domination. Which would be a godsend, given the rubbish we've had so far:

  

 

[Mike Poole]

I normally like to be fairly positive on here, taking a view whether winter or summer, of the weather that most on here are looking for, which in summer means heat.  But, for balance, here is a bone chilling take on the GFS and GEM 12z runs...here NH charts at T240:

You remember those Greenland heights we talked about that were on the way out, well they are back here!  Caveat, the uncertainty at T144 should caution against taking these charts with anything other than a large pinch of salt.  

But here's the thing.  I have related the weather in the last month and a half to the exceptionally strong final warming in the stratosphere.  Normally it's a benign transition from winter to summer, but this year had the flavour of a sudden stratosphere warming the likes we see in winter...so I had in my mind a timescale of 6-8 weeks disruption of our weather patterns from late April, which should mean high latitude (Greenland) blocking ending about now - and it still might.  

But in the SSW scenario there is a force to end such blocking the winter polar vortex, that isn't here now, so a worry is that we are left with a flabby mess of pressure patterns over the NH, a meridional jet and luck from the MJO or AAM evolution to determine whether we are under the current trough or a ridge.  Please don't leave us in this trough?  

[knocker]

And the GEFs this evening not dissimilar to this morning and could be a lot worse

 

Edited June 16, 2019 by knocker

[mb018538]

Looks like another trough to deal with....models not suggesting it sticks around this time.....but still another fly in the ointment. I’m now pinning my hopes on the months end being a saviour, as any warmth forecast for early this coming week has been downgraded to nothing now, with yet more torrential rain on the way. Oh the joys!

[Don]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks like another trough to deal with....models not suggesting it sticks around this time.....but still another fly in the ointment. I’m now pinning my hopes on the months end being a saviour, as any warmth forecast for early this coming week has been downgraded to nothing now, with yet more torrential rain on the way. Oh the joys!

Starting to sound very similar to what was being said six months ago!

[Methuselah]

Interestingly, the very low temps (25th to 27th) seem largely confined to the Operational...so we can live in hope?

  

  

I assume that the other ensemble members are also derived from the FV3, and not from the old GFS?

[Gordon Webb]

10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks like another trough to deal with....models not suggesting it sticks around this time.....but still another fly in the ointment. I’m now pinning my hopes on the months end being a saviour, as any warmth forecast for early this coming week has been downgraded to nothing now, with yet more torrential rain on the way. Oh the joys!

and by the months end in London the day will be 3 minutes 56 seconds shorter than on the solstice so Winter Is Coming (should be appreciated by Jon Snow)

[Mapantz]

1 hour ago, StormChaseUK said:

Notice derek from the bbc has just said on Twitter that this is the coldest June for 141 years officially.

Not that this is the thread for this discussion, but he didn't say that at all. He said June 11th was the coldest June day in central England.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

31 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks like another trough to deal with....models not suggesting it sticks around this time.....but still another fly in the ointment. I’m now pinning my hopes on the months end being a saviour, as any warmth forecast for early this coming week has been downgraded to nothing now, with yet more torrential rain on the way. Oh the joys!

Well that's one way of spinning it! I would say heavy thundery showers could mean up to 50mm of rain in places, where up the road ends up with nothing. It's certainly not the washout of the last week. And I would think it becomes more settled away from the NW to end the week and beyond.. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

ECM not that bad.. Pressure a tad West... But could be worse... Its certainly better than what we have become accustomed to. 

And it ends pretty well. 

Edited June 16, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Mike Poole]

ECM, if you have some idea of the evolution in your mind, and I do!, this looks like a good run, here T192,T216 and T240:

 

But it isn't going to deliver summer, looks to end in a cut off low that might take a while to do one.  More runs needed, I think....

[knocker]

The ecm not dissimilar to this morning. The ext EPS not without interest this evening

[mb018538]

The ecm isn’t great either - upper trough still dominating at day 9/10, cool uppers and a continuation of sunshine and showers with temperatures in the teens. 

Some of the 00z clusters had the trough more out of the way, so let’s hope it’s not over the uk again.

[Djdazzle]

We would be immensely unlucky to end up like the ECM 240.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

We would be immensely unlucky to end up like the ECM 240.

Unlucky?..it ends with high pressure ridging / building in!

Edited June 16, 2019 by Jon Snow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Unlucky?..it ends with high pressure ridging / building in!

Yes Jon, looked okay to mee,