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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
17 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

A bit of everything from the 6z. Not sure about the low pressure it's placing us under by next weekend though! It seems to be followed by a Ntly, then a rebuild in pressure with ever increasing temps beyond that! 

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-0-216.png

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-0-264.png

gfs-0-300.png

gfs-1-204.png

gfs-1-240.png

gfs-1-264.png

gfs-1-300.png

gfs-1-336.png

At least there's a chance of a substantial pressure-increase over Europe and the UK, around month's end...would tie in with some of the other longer-term forecasts?:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.6f011bc0cb70c691c7d0b179f4b8c88d.pngimage.thumb.png.9a5019232902e2fcd400b53f12cc2ea0.png 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Word of warning gang, there is some absolute filth indicated for late June on the GEFS 6z in terms of unseasonably cool and unsettled but in amongst the dross there are some very summery members too, anyway, that's just my unbiased agenda free opinion!

GFSAVGEU06_240_1.png

 

GFSP02EU06_318_2.png

GFSP03EU06_318_2.png

GFSP03EU06_318_1.png

GFSP05EU06_318_1.png

GFSP05EU06_318_2.png

GFSP17EU06_318_1.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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thestixx Enthusiast

thestixx

Posted
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
Posted
38 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Word of warning gang, there is some absolute filth indicated for late June on the GEFS 6z in terms of unseasonably cool and unsettled but in amongst the dross there are some very summery members too, anyway, that's just my unbiased agenda free opinion!

GFSAVGEU06_240_1.png

 

GFSP02EU06_318_2.png

GFSP03EU06_318_2.png

GFSP03EU06_318_1.png

GFSP05EU06_318_1.png

GFSP05EU06_318_2.png

GFSP17EU06_318_1.png

Just in time for Glastonbury. Therefore it's bound to go tits up. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
6 minutes ago, thestixx said:

Just in time for Glastonbury. Therefore it's bound to go tits up. 

It has no support anyway..just trying to lessen the pain rather than adding to it!!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

The 06Z ensembles are suggestive a generally higher temperatures::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.c60781ae4ca5459298be1eed5888abe0.pngimage.thumb.png.81eb38ccb56cf924b7ced2c3a9890501.png  

image.thumb.png.31223b6cba12bf01b5cd5519ab94d802.pngimage.thumb.png.151bc4857ead8807f59e1b0d1251e250.png  

Edited by Ed Stone
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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The 12Z ensembles are suggestive a generally higher temperatures::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.c60781ae4ca5459298be1eed5888abe0.pngimage.thumb.png.81eb38ccb56cf924b7ced2c3a9890501.png  

image.thumb.png.31223b6cba12bf01b5cd5519ab94d802.pngimage.thumb.png.151bc4857ead8807f59e1b0d1251e250.png  

bit early mate, the time suggests 06 Z?

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

bit early mate, the time suggests 06 Z?

Cheers, John. Will edit!:fool:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational there certainly is thunderstorm potential from late tuesday and continuing through wednesday across the south, southeast and east anglia.

ukstormrisk.png

ukcapeli.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Andy Bown Accomplished

Andy Bown

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
Posted
1 hour ago, duggyfresh said:

Please don't say that! We're all on one weeble cheek here.

Anyone looking at the models and getting frustrated at rain bearing charts should weep more tears in the respect that last year, the fallow year, would have been a dust bowl! 

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

Just for fun, a comparison with the clusters this morning for T300 with those on exactly the same day last year. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018061600_300.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019061600_300.

The difference between NW trough in 2018 and NE trough in 2019 is just about there, but at this stage the 2018 chart doesn't scream a huge improvement on this year's charts. Perhaps too early to write off the whole of June yet - there's definitely a route to a much better final week

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

The triple point of the frontal system will track north east during this evening and overnight and the main rain bands will be in the area of the occlusion and the cold front.  Thus a band of showery rain remaining in the vicinity of north Wales and England whilst some quite intense downpours track north initially through N. Ireland/ the north of England and then Scotland  Drier further south

PPVA89.thumb.gif.50c89fad1d28d490951d3d37b16eebe0.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.2567238af5579db340f245b1d19a4c1e.gifps_reflec_d02_13.thumb.png.60576b06dcefa6bde25be6cab0ea32db.pngps_reflec_d02_15.thumb.png.c827dd0ea642e7b86c458cdfc4c1f21b.pngps_reflec_d02_18.thumb.png.c4cfeacee91ad956331932055d78eb53.pngps_reflec_d02_21.thumb.png.dea86896aa4e717b30197d9999955d4d.pngps_reflec_d02_24.thumb.png.444ed8c20311a5d2952df11d9a82c4c1.png

Edited by knocker
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

GFS, ICON and ECM at day 7 regarding low pressure... ECM not really on board! 

gfs-0-168 (1).png

icon-0-168.png

ECM1-168.gif

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ICON 12z has some heat pumped up at T180, wouldn't take much adjustment to get a proper plume here:

image.thumb.jpg.f566998fc9ef4d5e44d86db5301c08b7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.71d81dbe94d3dc915a03145f3c5bbbd8.jpg

as it is it's a glancing blow, but spare a thought for Siberia, ICON T165, those huge four-figure numbers falling from the sky are going to hurt if one catches you!

image.thumb.jpg.6946900a25a56582550d8465753cf875.jpg

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

UKMO T144, compared to ICON at same time UKMO first:

image.thumb.jpg.88d9b9ae7b3804bb305d5051ac80cc36.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ef54abc626378b437086ff939c027094.jpg

UKMO looking much better and as always it is frustrating that this model stops at T144.  On to the GEM and GFS...

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Yes mike.. The ukmo 6z looks more similar to the ECM 0z run... So i can live with that... 12s just rolling out on UKMO. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

There's a real worry about more flooding in the already flood hit areas on tues / wed as heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms move north and also develop in-situ across the s / se / east anglia / lincolnshire due to the increased humidity according to the 6z operational and likely the 12z too.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

UKMO out to day 6... Not making as much of an issue with low pressure, which is devoloping on the GFS and ICON.. temps still not great out to day 6.

UW96-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO T144, compared to ICON at same time UKMO first:

image.thumb.jpg.88d9b9ae7b3804bb305d5051ac80cc36.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ef54abc626378b437086ff939c027094.jpg

UKMO looking much better and as always it is frustrating that this model stops at T144.  On to the GEM and GFS...

OK so three charts to add to that now, the GEM, GFS (FV3) and the old GFS all at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.6cfd5d18e5c3d3b8c0b8a2acafb3aee1.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.e078ab1a401c4aff8bcbd1f05fc5fb27.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.3699fa27860dc2456cee726f818c7c46.jpg

The message is one of improving fortunes.  It is interesting that the old GFS has not been totally put out to pasture...maybe NOAA have some concerns still re FV3, I am wary of it.  FV3 has consistently outperformed the old GFS on NH verification stats, not by much, but it has.  However, it has shown a cold bias in the US, and has shown some odd solutions for the UK too.  

So it's good we've access to both until September it seems.

Edited by Mike Poole
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

And now it seems the GFS 12z not making as much of an issue with low pressure has the 6z did... For me that's an improvement. 

gfs-0-168 (2).png

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

And now it seems the GFS 12z not making as much of an issue with low pressure has the 6z did... For me that's an improvement. 

gfs-0-168 (2).png

not sure about that. next monday 12 degrees? to me this worse than 6Z

ukprec.pngukmaxtemp.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not sure about that. next monday 12 degrees? to me this worse than 6Z

ukprec.pngukmaxtemp.png

Completely different on the other GFS. It's unsettled but very much warmer... Look at the uppers. 

gfs-0-192 (1).png

gfs-1-192.png

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Completely different on the other GFS. It's unsettled but very much warmer... Look at the uppers. 

gfs-0-192 (1).png

gfs-1-192.png

Come on, uppers are pretty irrelevant if stuck under heavy rain, might make difference of 3/4c. 12c and raining, 15c and raining - who cares...

still hopefully fair enough away to end up being completely different than the currently output.....

Edited by Alderc
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

GFS looking good for a push from the Azores at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.e387460310d2ee22f014391b8aecaec1.jpg

Power to build. Compared to its predecessor, which puts us back in the cement mixer!

image.thumb.jpg.9077d8add171e892f906f9fa363576d9.jpg

So by T192, uncertainty reigns, still a lot of model watching before the eventual destination a week of so from now can be predicted with any confidence...

Edited by Mike Poole
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