Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[StormChaseUK]

18z builds high pressure everywhere uk still lower pressure 

[Scorcher]

27 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

18z builds high pressure everywhere uk still lower pressure 

The best run for quite a while I think, could be a nice spell from Friday to Monday at least, and it could still improve after that.

[Don]

12 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The best run for quite a while I think, could be a nice spell from Friday to Monday at least, and it could still improve after that.

Shame it's the 18z though!

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 500mb profile and surface analysis for midnight

The complexities of life under the mantle of the upper low continues. The showers over the north of Scotland courtesy of the trailing front, finally clear in the early hours leaving most areas with a dry and bright start to today  But sporadic rain is already into the south west as the next frontal system approaches. This will continue to track north east through the day with frequent, perhaps thundery, showers effecting Wales and a broad swathe of central and eastern England. These may coalesce to give a longer spell of rain around south Wales later. Much the same scenario applies over N. Ireland and Scotland courtesy of a trough embedded in the circulation also tracking north east

The showers die out over England and Wales through this evening and but the triple point of the frontal system continues to run NNE and bands of rain associated with the fronts will effect northern regions through the night

By midday Monday the triple point is over Stavanger but the waving trailing cold front is still straddled across the country so showery activity in the vicinity of this. But more to the point there is yet another trough in the circulation which will bring frequent heavy thundery showers, with hail in the mix, to N. Ireland and Scotland  Further south sunny and quite pleasant

Tuesday will be quite a dry and warm day over much of the country as the trailing front weakens but still some frontal activity in the north west so cooler with rain here. And also during the late afternoon a shallow thundery will track north from France introducing heavy showers and perhaps the odd storm to the south of England.

The thundery low will continue to track north east over Tuesday night and through Wednesday accompanied by the thundery showers so quite  a wet day in England and Wales with the potential for some heavy downpours. Drier in Scotland and N. Ireland as the frontal rain moves away Some very marked variations in temp.

By Thursday the upper low has once more slipped over the UK under pressure from the west so a day of sunshine and showers, perhaps more predominate in the west

Edited June 16, 2019 by knocker

[Guest]

Having just turned the heating on again Gfs 00z is just terrible and shows a continued deterioration in the overall synoptic setup in the model output compared to that of 24/36hrs ago. The mid week warm spell has now been totally erased and outside of London the GFS has nowhere reaching 20c until July (other than London) as a succession of low drive in from the west, maybe the weakest of ridges building in towards the end of the week but given how this weekend was first supposed to a massive improvement and then midweek Im not sure its currently worth the CPU processing power it was calculated from...Still I’m sure this is normal summer weather. 

[knocker]

To continue briefly with the gfs

The ridging of the subtropical high to the west that was becoming evident on Thursday continues and by midday Saturday the upper low has been displaced to the north with a surface high cell over the UK Which moves over the North Sea on Sunday as forces gather to the west and the ground is prepared for a more mobile patten

[Guest]

GFS 00z ensembles back up the Ops run and make grim reading, cool and unsettled to the end of the run with very little sign of anything remotely settled. 

Edited June 16, 2019 by Alderc

[Frosty.]

Disappointing Gfs op / Gefs 00z mean for summer fans..at best it's a north / south split with only glimpses of summery weather across southern uk but no such luck further north..in a nutshell it's a mixture of troughs and ridges with no sustained anticyclonic weather indicated..this doesn't preclude a marked change for the better come late June / early July, it's only based on what the above is showing me.

Edited June 16, 2019 by Jon Snow

[knocker]

The GEFS medium term anomaly this morning is certainly moving in the right direction. Still a weak trough in the vicinity of the UK and a westerly upper flow but much more benign and weaker with the subtropical high gaining some traction

 

Edited June 16, 2019 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Not at alll sure what to make of EC168?

its different thats for sure..

Different but MUCH better than GFS by day 8!!

Edited June 16, 2019 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

Lets just say EC is nothing special 850 wise but its on a different planet to GFS and will dry out a lot of flooded areas nicely..

day 9 is another improvement but looks so different to anything recently, confidence is low for now, but here is day 9 fwiw..

Edited June 16, 2019 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

Last evening's EPS medium term mean anomalies suggested the subtropical high zones would amplify for a few days. This morning's det output

[northwestsnow]

Now EC seemingly setting us up for a warm northerly at day 10..

Ens will be interesting but i'm a bit suspicious about that run...

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z operational isn't bad, actually from T+144 onwards it's rather good with higher pressure and increasingly warm surface conditions..chalk and cheese with gfs!!

Edited June 16, 2019 by Jon Snow

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

all  i say its not great  no sigh of any longer term   dry weather   at the  moment and fantasy  world it about the  same

 

[Man With Beard]

Last night's clusters still dominated by a positive ridge anomaly nearby at D10, yes still the possibility of a trough stuck in the pattern but looks minor compared with this week's. We'd be unlucky not to get some good days out of this

[mb018538]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Last night's clusters still dominated by a positive ridge anomaly nearby at D10, yes still the possibility of a trough stuck in the pattern but looks minor compared with this week's. We'd be unlucky not to get some good days out of this

Looks like we don’t have the corresponding negative heights to the NW to support any long lasting UK ridge/warmth to me. So different to 2018.

[knocker]

Looking at the det run 5-10 anomaly and the EPS mean for same period it is reasonable to think that the Atlantic subtropical high zone will amplify somewhat for a few days before reverting to a more zonal flow.

Edited June 16, 2019 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks like we don’t have the corresponding negative heights to the NW to support any long lasting UK ridge/warmth to me. So different to 2018.

Yes - no guarantee of a heatwave or sustained settled spell from this, either. Just an improvement! 

[Frosty.]

Not a bad day 10 Ecm 00z ensemble mean, large upper ridge and the azores high looks primed, it's not all bad before that either!!!!..some signs of hope!

[Methuselah]

GEFS 00Z ensembles look neither very good nor very bad:

 

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, tinybill said:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

all  i say its not great  no sigh of any longer term   dry weather   at the  moment and fantasy  world it about the  same

 

You could look at it this way: when FI shows that we'll have an extreme heat, cold, rain or wind event (and it often does) - how often do you think that materialises?

Conversely, it’s not that often that FI shows nothing exciting (models often end up returning extreme values in the last frames due to the nature of aggregating estimated values of atmospheric conditions that far out).

This indicates to me that over the next few days we might see something different emerge within the reliable timeframe.

Perhaps a sustained plume, or at least a noteworthy dry and sunny period?

Edited June 16, 2019 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Methuselah]

I know it's in FI, but this could be a rather worrying pattern developing -- similar to what led to last week's deluges, but with generally warmer uppers:

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

A bit of everything from the 6z. Not sure about the low pressure it's placing us under by next weekend though! It seems to be followed by a Ntly, then a rebuild in pressure with ever increasing temps beyond that! 

[h2005__uk__]

On 11/06/2019 at 08:21, h2005__uk__ said:

Does MeteoGroup use a blend of models? Both WeatherPro and BBC apps (i.e. MeteoGroup) have been showing London maxes around 24/25C next week for several days now. 

Unfortunately the temps forecast by these apps for London/Essex for the coming week have been eroded day by day, in line with the posters on here commenting on a downgrade.

Now showing nothing higher than 20/21C, but a thunderstorm risk remains for SE England. Fingers crossed that won't get eroded away too as it'd be nice to have some bangs rather than just continuing rain.