Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[Mandrake]

20 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It’s poor across the board this morning, ECM is especially disappointing. Hard to see anything dry and settled before July now. Lack of posts sums it up. A dreadful June. 

See snap of a realtime map of weather stations across Europe....tells a story for actual on the ground temps!

[Methuselah]

So, the 00Z ensembles suggest a steady warming trend, between now and mid-week, followed by a few days' cooling and then it's Fantasy Island:

             

             

And the precip chart still thinks we are battling crocodiles, halfway up the Zambezi!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Oh my lord, what a shocking state of runs. It really is a case of no hope for the foreseeable future with the UK continuing to be a giant trough magnet pulling in LP from almost any direction and Greenland being a High pressure magnet.
After next weeks warm day and improving 'blip' it looks like it could get more cool and unsettled with strong height rises towards Greenland once more while ridging across SE and Central Europe, so plenty more scope for further deluges to add to the wettest June on record.

If this run comes off it will take us into closing days of June and into July and by then we'll be in the highest part of Summer and still waiting for Summer to start. Hopefully July will offer the improvement we all crave for but im not holding my breath for that.

 

[Derecho]

35 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Oh my lord, what a shocking state of runs. It really is a case of no hope for the foreseeable future with the UK continuing to be a giant trough magnet pulling in LP from almost any direction and Greenland being a High pressure magnet.
After next weeks warm day and improving 'blip' it looks like it could get more cool and unsettled with strong height rises towards Greenland once more while ridging across SE and Central Europe, so plenty more scope for further deluges to add to the wettest June on record.

If this run comes off it will take us into closing days of June and into July and by then we'll be in the highest part of Summer and still waiting for Summer to start. Hopefully July will offer the improvement we all crave for but im not holding my breath for that.

 

Oh my Lord, another overreaction to the model output, yes the 00z's aren't anything to write home about but they aren't awful either....

For England and Wales, sunshine and showers sums up the weekend, turning lighter and less frequent by Monday. Dry Tuesday, thunderstorms Wednesday, scattered showers Thursday, most areas sunny on Friday and fine for most of Saturday till some rain from France moves north later.

Anything after 7 or so days in Summer should be taken with a pinch of salt which takes us into the last 10 days of June? 

Edited June 14, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[knocker]

36 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Oh my lord, what a shocking state of runs. It really is a case of no hope for the foreseeable future with the UK continuing to be a giant trough magnet pulling in LP from almost any direction and Greenland being a High pressure magnet.
After next weeks warm day and improving 'blip' it looks like it could get more cool and unsettled with strong height rises towards Greenland once more while ridging across SE and Central Europe, so plenty more scope for further deluges to add to the wettest June on record.

If this run comes off it will take us into closing days of June and into July and by then we'll be in the highest part of Summer and still waiting for Summer to start. Hopefully July will offer the improvement we all crave for but im not holding my breath for that.

 

I am interested in the charts you are using to justify the comment" strong height rises towards Greenland once more" because this is the EPS take on it TIA

Edited June 14, 2019 by knocker

[StormChaseUK]

The GFS 00z ends on a back to square one note.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Paul

[summer blizzard]

Both GFS and Euro agree that the coming week will be more normal with only one system moving through at day 6 however both by day 10 look to have lows queuing up with the GFS especially bad.

The ridges are simply disappearing when faced with a low.

[mushymanrob]

12 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

2012 has become  and the outlook similar....But I can become shot down with my predictions, get ready for your gun.....

pretty easy really.... 2012 had persistent northern blocking, all indications are that the current block will dissipate and a more 'normal' north atlantic trough will establish. that will cut off the colder northerly feed thats mixed with the warm southern air causing this torrential rain.
there may be no long term heatwave/settled on the cards, but the '2012' style pattern is on its way out to be replaced by 'normal', or 'average'..

[Wimbledon88]

Yes, some very disturbed output this morning. No need to post charts. We could as I said several weeks ago be looking at a 2007 Summer. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the mean charts the outlook doesni look too bad, a mixture of troughs and ridges with temperatures recovering closer to average, perhaps warm / very warm at times for the s / se where the best of any summery weather would be..most unsettled and coolest the further n / nw you go.

[Blessed Weather]

With regard the causes of 'stuck' weather patterns and weather extremes (e.g. 2012 rain, 2018 heat, 2019 rain), folk reading this thread might also be interested in reading my post on the Teleconnections thread this morning:

 

[knocker]

57 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Yes, some very disturbed output this morning. No need to post charts. We could as I said several weeks ago be looking at a 2007 Summer. 

If there is no need to post charts when the weather is disturbed, may I ask when is there a need to do so? Or does an opinion on the summer suffice?

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

I am interested in the charts you are using to justify the comment" strong height rises towards Greenland once more" because this is the EPS take on it TIA

Looks like NB to me. I said the same at the end of May that NB will strongly take hold in June only to be laughed at and get a torrent of verbal

Edited June 14, 2019 by 38.5*C

[Derecho]

17 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Looks like NB to me. I said the same at the end of May that NB will strongly take hold in June only to be laughed at and get a torrent of verbal

But I could say July will be full of Northern Blocking... doesn't mean anything if there is no predictive skill.

Besides northern blocking doesn't equate to writing off a Summer, I'd say this chart has a stronger northern block then the ones you posted. Didn't turn out too badly did it?

The fact is that the next week in the model output doesn't look awful so it needs clarifying for those members who are browsing the thread and haven't seen the model output themselves. We have had 7 days of bad weather but the preceding days this June weren't that bad away from the NW and next week is looking reasonable.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[Methuselah]

So the 06Z continues to drain the HLB, at least to the point where it's nowt out of the ordinary. And, once that overall pattern-change has occurred, it's maintained (in broad terms!) right through to the end of the run:

 

[danm]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So the 06Z continues to drain the HLB, at least to the point where it's nowt out of the ordinary. And, once that overall pattern-change has occurred, it's maintained (in broad terms!) right through to the end of the run:

 

Yep, no summer 2018 charts there but pretty standard UK summer fayre with a NW/SE split. Some warm sunny days further SE, interspersed with some showers whilst remaining cool and relatively unsettled further NW. No UK wide heatwave, but miles better than what we have now. 

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So the 06Z continues to drain the HLB, at least to the point where it's nowt out of the ordinary. And, once that overall pattern-change has occurred, it's maintained (in broad terms!) right through to the end of the run:

 

Hopefully by July / August that big blob of cool green snot to the NW will be gone..wishful thinking?

[Mr Frost]

I have to just say something here...there are two or three posters who keeps whinging about people saying Summer will be a washout, 2012 or there is no sign of a heatwave ect ect.

It is getting extremely boring reading it every single day! Can you not just ignore the people you think are on a wind up? The people you are moaning about are posting a chart or two most of the time and giving an opinion and that is what this thread is all about . (The funny thing is a couple of members who are complaining about the above never post anything model related themselves)

Its tiring reading people shout down anyone who prefers cooler weather in Summer or has a different opinion from wanting warm and sunny weather!

I want 30 degrees, non stop sunshine mixed in with thunderstorms but I have no issue with anything anyone is posting - I respect everyone’s thoughts.

Surely if you have an issue with a post you hit the flag option and report it to a moderator - it’s up to them if they think someone is on a wind up or not. 

The models/outlooks and charts are not great so either side or the spectrum are free to post what they want as long as it is model related.

Have a good day all!

Edited June 14, 2019 by Mr Frost

[MP-R]

We've had November weather for the last week and it looks like we'll at least upgrade to more Septemberish conditions next week lol. Need that jet to shift north to its summer position though if we're going to achieve anything more than just one or two days of fine weather at a time.

Shift this a couple of hundred miles north and then we're talking!

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

But I could say July will be full of Northern Blocking... doesn't mean anything if there is no predictive skill.

Besides northern blocking doesn't equate to writing off a Summer, I'd say this chart has a stronger northern block then the ones you posted. Didn't turn out too badly did it?

The fact is that the next week in the model output doesn't look awful so it needs clarifying for those members who are browsing the thread and haven't seen the model output themselves. We have had one week of bad weather but the preceding days this June weren't that bad away from the NW and next week is looking reasonable.

I think that's an unfair comment saying their was no predictive skill involved as those calling it out were only showing what the majority of the models showed.  

3 weeks ago all those with the all predictive skills, in depth knowledge and ability to be able to articulate them were telling us there was no way the teleconnections and mid term outlook were supportive of an extended northerly blocking pattern. Guess what? Massively wrong, and at time a whole bunch of posters subsequently being shot down often a condescending manner for showing what the models were outlining, yes a god awful northerly blocking pattern.

 

[knocker]

25 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Looks like NB to me. I said the same at the end of May that NB will strongly take hold in June only to be laughed at and get a torrent of verbal

If you are going to select random charts from one gfs run way out in F1 as evidence of NB then so be it. I think it very unwise and unjustified but that's just my opinion of course. The GEFS mean anomaly shows no signs of NB which is in line with the EPS this morning

[Frosty.]

Despite some of the things you are reading on here the GEFS 6z mean shows an improvement early next week and then again from the end of next week with the south and east doing best, as is typical in summer with lower heights to the NW keeping the n / nw in a predominantly cooler changeable / unsettled atlantic regime but with some fine and warmer spells too, especially in the longer term and the s / se in particular could become very warm at times with continental influence as well as the azores high / ridge..

[knocker]

Just to make one thing clear. My posts are nowt to do with warfare mode or any other mode. I just feel that a number of posts are very misleading, either inadvertently or deliberately. But to reiterate, it is just my opinion which I assume is within the guide lines of the thread, which many posts are not.

[Derecho]

28 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I think that's an unfair comment saying their was no predictive skill involved as those calling it out were only showing what the majority of the models showed.  

3 weeks ago all those with the all predictive skills, in depth knowledge and ability to be able to articulate them were telling us there was no way the teleconnections and mid term outlook were supportive of an extended northerly blocking pattern. Guess what? Massively wrong, and at time a whole bunch of posters subsequently being shot down often a condescending manner for showing what the models were outlining, yes a god awful northerly blocking pattern.

 

But the point is that some people were posting the summer was going to be awful before it had even started! People were pointing the output this week looks really bad (in fact I alluded to the fact we may break some maxima records in a post).

However anything in the model output more then a week away is subject to sudden changes at this time of the year when atmospheric circulation patterns are much flatter. Just compare the two charts to see what I mean. That zonal rut would be tough to get out of due to the large scale steering currents. Yet the chart for next week shows a lack of any major steering currents. This week could easily have seen the high sink a bit more and have kept the majority of rain over the continent.

 

The fact is that the extended model output has shown anything from heatwaves to washouts so far this summer so taking it as gospel is wrong.  In a nutshell the model output shows across England:

Saturday: 16C - 20C, fine sunny morning away from the SW, heavy showers later

Sunday: 16-21C, fine morning, heavy showers again later

Monday: 17C-22C, scattered showers in the afternoon

Tuesday: 19-24C, hazy sunshine

Wednesday: 18-25C, scattered thunderstorms, heavy rain in the far north - humid

Thursday: 18-22C, thundery showers in the south, scattered showers towards the east

Friday: 17C-22C, some heavier afternoon showers in the SE again, scattered elsewhere

Saturday: 16C-21C, generally sunny with maybe a few heavier showers over East Anglia

Hardly awful as I say and as the below charts show how its foolish to take northern blocking in the extended time range and treat it as gospel, the 00z and 06z for the same time are a lot different. To those who complain about the ciriticism, knocker and others spend a lot of time going through synoptic charts. If someone then posts a sweeping statement underneath it should be called out. I could post as many synoptic charts as I could like but others already do a great job.

   

 

 

Edited June 14, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[mb018538]

I think some people have been smoking some of the strong stuff this morning?



Why are people banging on about northern blocking again? It's clearly dissipating, and both the AO/NAO are due to turn positive. 



Maybe people are just expecting a heatwave now the Greenland block is going. It can still be fairly disappointing for the UK even with low pressure over Greenland/North Pole.