Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[knocker]

The good news vis the ext EPS mean anomalies is the Greenland block is eradicated and a much more fluid pattern established  Thus a return to a westerly upper flow eventually as the Atlantic trough weakens and retrogresses west, albeit no significant sign of the subtropical high flexing it's muscles  But it does trend towards positive anomalies so probably portending a more sunshine and sunny periods regime as the Pm and Tm airnasses phase with temps alternating around the average.

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

That's more like it:

ECM T240.  I genuinely think that this evolution is a possibility, even probability for summer (or the rest of it anyway) once we get through this Greenland blocking period, we will see...

Keep posting Mike!

Your input is much appreciated ..

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

12 minutes ago, knocker said:

The good news vis the ext EPS mean anomalies...

What do you think this suggests in terms of rainfall distribution and frequency, Malcolm?

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

What do you think this suggests in terms of rainfall distribution and frequency, Malcolm?

Less rain than we saw yesterday hopefully.

I really must improve my standard of posting now I have no reputation!!

Edited June 13, 2019 by Frosty.

[knocker]

11 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

What do you think this suggests in terms of rainfall distribution and frequency, Malcolm?

Well keeping very much in mind this is a long way out to be talking rainfall particulars Chris but generally I suspect tending towards a NW/SE split with wet spells but nowt like the current set up.courtesy of the more fluid pattern

[ANYWEATHER]

2012 has become  and the outlook similar....But I can become shot down with my predictions, get ready for your gun.....

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

15 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well keeping very much in mind this is a long way out to be talking rainfall particulars Chris but generally I suspect tending towards a NW/SE split with wet spells but nowt like the current set up.courtesy of the more fluid pattern

Thanks - I appreciate that we can't extrapolate from anomalies to detailed forecasts.

Edited June 13, 2019 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Mr Frost]

Oh the joys of being a heat and sun lover living in the UK and Ireland...the above charts sum it all up. (Link from Severe Weather Europe Facebook page)

We are always on the edge of glory in Summer and Winter. (If you like hot/sun and cold/snow)

Go to bed everyone - that’s enough heartbreak for one day. 

Edited June 13, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Djdazzle]

11 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Oh the joys of being a heat and sun lover living in the UK and Ireland...the above charts sum it all up. (Link from Severe Weather Europe Facebook page)

We are always on the edge of glory in Summer and Winter. (If you like hot/sun and cold/snow)

Go to bed everyone - that’s enough heartbreak for one day. 

We will get ours at some point this summer. It’s only a matter of time. It’ll be a huge shock if we don’t see a few days over 90F - it’s almost the norm these days.

[StormChaseUK]

Yup. As the old phrase goes what goes up.. must come down. Hot rising air descends and we will endure wet cool weather well into July I think. 

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Yup. As the old phrase goes what goes up.. must come down. Hot rising air descends and we will endure wet cool weather well into July I think. 

Maybe. Highly unlikely though.

[StormChaseUK]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Maybe. Highly unlikely though.

I said the same about June in May and was laughed at

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

I said the same about June in May and was laughed at

That has no bearing on the next few weeks though. One lucky forecast!  Not saying you’re wrong. Maybe a bit of reverse psychology in play. . .

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

The good news vis the ext EPS mean anomalies is the Greenland block is eradicated and a much more fluid pattern established  Thus a return to a westerly upper flow eventually as the Atlantic trough weakens and retrogresses west, albeit no significant sign of the subtropical high flexing it's muscles  But it does trend towards positive anomalies so probably portending a more sunshine and sunny periods regime as the Pm and Tm airnasses phase with temps alternating around the average.

An improvement is certain now, and given flooding impacts of what has come this week a change is most welcome. Many of us here enjoy extreme weather events at different times of the year, but I don't think any of us enjoy seeing lives negatively impacted in this way. Last third of June should see much more in the way of a neutral to positive NAO signature which will allow high pressure to impact from the south from time to time but also with opportunities for the odd damp blip. In this context average temperatures a decent bet.

Taking a peek into July and I notice 2 things: a GEFS ultra extended that hints at the return of northern heights as the pacific wave fades, and secondly a MetO report rather in line with that GEFS prediction. Summer 2019 kicking off in a dramatically different style to 2018. Ebb and flow of a pattern setting up for the season? I had thought an improved end of the month might last long enough to encourage warmer air to the south to intrude for a bit and give sun/warmth lovers something to enjoy for a while in early July - but not quite so sure now. If Griceland heights build back again then chances of warm and dry fade.

In the meantime as things gradually improve trough impacts look likely to continue to have some degree of impact for another week yet.

[Cheshire Freeze]

18z GFS says another deluge could come next week courtesy of a shallow low interacting with some warm air drifting N

Some ridging shown after this though towards day 8

Edited June 13, 2019 by CreweCold

[Derecho]

2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

2012 has become  and the outlook similar....But I can become shot down with my predictions, get ready for your gun.....

2012 was consistently miserable until early August though whilst this June has seen the rainfall totals bumped up by an exceptionally wet week across England and Wales.

A broken clock strikes right twice a day so I don't think anyone can take plaudits for these predictions when there is no predictive skill. If we see consistently low maxima and persistent wet weather till late July then the comparisons to 2007 and 2012 can be justified however one swallow doesn't make a summer.

GFS overestimates these but worth keeping an eye on this.

I don't think there is much 'shannon entropy' about next week as the models have been fairly consistent. Not much in the way of rainy days next week with the exception of Wednesday which I've been keeping my eye on for a bit now. Some thundery potential for parts of England and some of these could bring high rainfall totals. High pressure signal for the weekend after next but that is where uncertainty begins to kick in.

 

Edited June 13, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[knocker]

Outlook - The good news is that as the pattern slowly evolves over the next few days. the upper trough that has been the cause of the current foul weather will slowly be released from 'captivity'. No sudden plunge into high summer but less rain and more sunshine and temps warming a tad.

Meanwhile the NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UK chart

As can be seen the surface low is tracking west just north of Scotland to be 997mb west of the Hebrides by 1800,  so still some showery rain in the north of Scotland. And the associated waving occlusion has already brought more persistent rain with some heavy pulses into all of England and Wales, bar the south east, as it tracks north east. This rain will fragment during the say to be replaced by frequent showers which will be quite intense in some places. Another cold day within the context of June. But note a new frontal system approaching from the south west

Rain from the new system will track slowly east, mainly skirting N. Ireland, through this evening and overnight, effecting all western areas by dawn and the wind will start to pick up.

The occlusion and belt of showery rain, which will contain some heavy pulses and thunder cannot be ruled out, will track slowly east through Saturday whilst ether side of it perhaps a fair bit of sunshine making a pleasant change.

By midday Sunday the upper trough is out to the west of Ireland with the UK in a WSW flow. The occlusion has by now long cleared to the east but troughs embedded in the circulation will result in a day of sunshine and showers, many of which could well be heavy with thunder in the mix and more likely to be concentrated in western areas.

By Monday the change mentioned at the beginning is underway with the upper low moving north but an occlusion and trough will still bring some heavy showery rain to north western regions.but certainly an improvement in the east where it will be a tad warmer

The movement north of the upper low continues overnight Monday and through Tuesday so at last the UK is free of the shackles resulting in a much drier and warmer day with temps nudging above average, apart from the NW of Scotland where it will still be showery and quite cool. But of course this does open the back door and systems can now approach from the south west.

 

 

[knocker]

And sure enough a shallow low does nip through the door and track north east and phase with the trough to the north and thus a day of showers and some longer periods of rain on Wednesday. Regional variations of temps around the average

The overall NH profile in the 5-10 range is pretty much as expected with now little sign of the block and couple of quite intense vortex lobes.

Edited June 14, 2019 by knocker

[Guest]

Again I think it’s a poor GFS 00z, in a normal summer we’d all be pretty meh about the output for next week, yes it’s much less bad than week but only the south east get one or days into the 20s and with a real failure to build any pressure near the UK the following weekend starting to look cool and wet. A spell of summer weather doesn’t look likely to occur any time soon. GFS also flirts with rebuilding heights over Greenland and ensembles beyond the 20th show little agreement which nearly always defaults to a continuation of an unsettled theme.

Oh well at least I’ve got a trip to the Rose bowl today to watch England / West Indies, oh wait looks showery most of the morning......

[northwestsnow]

EC 168- the heat just goes on and on across SE/E/Central Europe....

[northwestsnow]

A RIDGE!!!!!

Perhaps,a critical aspect of EC is that it not building a ridge to the NW as GFS does, unfortunately for those to the north west, the NW/SE split that has been previously discussed would likely come to fruition.

So, summer to remain on hold for many away from the SE i would speculate..

Edited June 14, 2019 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

The ecm not dissimilar to the gfs tracking a shallow low north east and phasing it with the trough to the north so quite a wet day Weds and sunshine and showers Thursday. And then the more fluid west > east pattern

Edited June 14, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Great 0600 geostationary sat image of the current position

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

A RIDGE!!!!!

Perhaps,a critical aspect of EC is that it not building a ridge to the NW as GFS does, unfortunately for those to the north west, the NW/SE split that has been previously discussed would likely come to fruition.

So, summer to remain on hold for many away from the SE i would speculate..

It's almost an Autumnal looking pattern, although less deep lows and warmer rain.

[Guest]

It’s poor across the board this morning, ECM is especially disappointing. Hard to see anything dry and settled before July now. Lack of posts sums it up. A dreadful June.