Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240 mean:

The take is Greenland block gone.  Unsure? here's the spread at same time:

Low uncertainty over Greenland, supportive of improvements in UK, and here we see at T240 on the mean chart, higher pressure pushing into the UK:

Edited June 12, 2019 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

On the face of it the mean doesn't look great on the ensemble map... But with heights diminishing to the NW surely this will start to trend in the right direction before much longer. 

[tinybill]

On 10/06/2019 at 06:45, bluearmy said:

do I smell a change inall i say the offing as we head into the final third of June ????.  greeny heights may be about to finally ‘do one’  .....or is it just a temporary reprieve ????

all i say lookibg at the gfs  is dredfull  up to june  28 at the moment

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, tinybill said:

all i say lookibg at the gfs  is dredfull  up to june  28 at the moment

28th of June is way to far out. Not sure GFS knows what direction to take.. God help us with the FV3.. ECM for me shows improvement, pressure lowering over Greenland, and some ridging to our SW. Much more optimistic for the final 3rd of June and beyond. 

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, tinybill said:

all i say lookibg at the gfs  is dredfull  up to june  28 at the moment

It doesn't look dreadful for the sarf east next week!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Welcome back Karl.. Yes it certainly looks better...

[ANYWEATHER]

• Good Evening! Total rubbish  about a se/nw theme to our weather, .... next week 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Eh? that's what it's showing, unsettled NW settled SE. decent average temps

[Wimbledon88]

This seems to concur with the bbc extended outlook just now. 'Generally unsettled and maybe a bit more settled in the south east. All very volatile at the moment' Their words not mine. I feel the wait for summer will go on for some time yet. 

 

[damianslaw]

I've mentioned a number of times how the northern hemispheric summer base state doesn't tend to bed in until around the solstice, the position of the jetstream on average usually shifts north by then and stays in situ, but not always.. Crucial times ahead I feel - the current synoptical evolution suggests the jetstream taking on a more familiar summer trajectory - lets see what happens..   the key is the extent to which heights are scrubbed out of the Greenland region.. its not very clear cut, there are signs they may ebb away sufficiently enough to allow the jet to take on a more zonal northerly path, alas there are also signs the azores high isn't going to play ball and remain too west, allowing further longwave trough activity to push down over the UK and the elongated looping jetstream will continue...

[MP-R]

11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Although it’s doubtful whether the low pressure system would have as much moisture in winter.

I'm amazed it's had as much moisture even in June given where it was sourced, versus one coming off the Atlantic.

6 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

I wouldn't  stretch to winter but definitely Autumn.  Omega blocking will not shift easily, 2019 has been the most unusual weather year that I can remember in 30 years.  I had 21C in February and 9C in June.  Await to see what the 18z output delivers...

 

Yes, highly unusual in one of the most boring ways possible. Imagine if we'd have the synoptics the other way around!

[danm]

9 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I'm amazed it's had as much moisture even in June given where it was sourced, versus one coming off the Atlantic.!

According to BBC weather, the intense heat over Eastern Europe is one of the factors. The trough we’ve been under is a cut off low, so not a typical zonal pattern, but the heatwave further east has created a temperature gradient that seems to have invigorated the low straddling NW Europe. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

18z GFS changes tack again from earlier output. Suggests a slack, potentially thundery regime is possible around midweek

[summer blizzard]

Looking at the 18z CC is correct that the flow is quite slack with a single shortwave between days 5-11 however what it does do is highlight the absense of any real pressure build.

This is a better pattern than of late and one closer to average but it is just that, near average at best with any lows able to take quite a southerly track without much opposition.

It may slowly lead to a better pattern but that is not guaranteed and we could easily see a reversion to a pattern more similar to now.

Taking a longer term view the GFS does show a stronger wave in the Indian Ocean but persisting trades over the central and east Pacific (strongest bout of the year) so a meaningful change probably wont come before months end.

[mountain shadow]

The Oz GFS is very good in the extended.  High pressure in control.

Until then, plenty more rain for the North and West. 

 

[Guest]

Well the bad news is the 00z GFS Ops fails to build any sort of pressure through the middle part of next week allowing some quite active frontal activity across the UK giving again some pretty wet conditions at times however the really goods news is that it looks as though it’s in the bottom quintile of the ensembles. So yes next week certainly looking less bad and hopefully some drier, brighter and warmer conditions on the way if still mostly cloudy at times...

[northwestsnow]

What is going on with EC???

Its really late again this morning on both WZ and Meteociel..

[Summer Sun]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

What is going on with EC???

Its really late again this morning on both WZ and Meteociel..

ECM updated yesterday on the 12z along with GFS might have a few teething issues 

[Frosty.]

This is my idea of what summer should be!!..increasingly fantastic low res on the Gfs 00z operational and bear in mind these are noon temps, we would easily hit the low 30's celsius by mid / late afternoon!!

[Methuselah]

I quite like the 00Z's 'might be' evolution; the importing thing being that those irritating Greenland heights look like being drained:

 

 

Ensembles also looking very optimistic:

 

 

 

So, all things being considered, the final stretch, in our long and tortuous journey into summer, may at last be with us...Touch wood!

[BlueHedgehog074]

25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

What is going on with EC???

Its really late again this morning on both WZ and Meteociel..

ECMWF seems to be behaving itself now! 

Using examples from 144 hours up to 240 hours on the 00Z ECMWF, this is what they are portraying:

Some fairly weak(ish) areas of Low Pressure, especially over Northern UK, so probably quite changeable next week, though the run does show a modest pressure build over the UK towards the end of the run. Becoming more settled and drier for all/most of the U.K!

While it does admittedly feel like cherry picking, the GEM 00Z is also going for more of a Pressure build from the South-West over the U.K towards the end of its run. In fact, even more so than the ECMWF with slightly stronger upper heights:

After all the wet weather a lot of us have endured this week (so far), would be great to see this evolution becoming more of a thing! 

Next time ECMWF, no having any late arguments with the GFS - you’ll just make yourself too tired to get up on time in the morning to produce your 00Z run! I’m sure that’s why you were late today!...

[johnholmes]

43 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I quite like the 00Z's 'might be' evolution; the importing thing being that those irritating Greenland heights look like being drained:

 

 

Ensembles also looking very optimistic:

 

 

 

So, all things being considered, the final stretch, in our long and tortuous journey into summer, may at last be with us...Touch wood!

How liley are charts at 16 days to turn out correct?

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

How liley are charts at 16 days to turn out correct?

Very unlikely, John...Which is why I emphasised the potential draining of the HLB and ignored the details. As you've said, many a time, talking about details in the far-reaches of FI is a mug's game.

[StormChaseUK]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

How liley are charts at 16 days to turn out correct?

Not good odds, as we had the same prediction for now about 16 days ago. 

The pattern for nearly 2 months has been cool weather with low pressure generated by heat over to our east, then the models show
warming about 2 weeks ahead, warming occurs but over the continent,  thus creating more low pressure for us and repeating the cycle.

May = cool, cloudy and dry - June =  cool and wet 

Until that heat shifts from Germany, Poland, Arctic Circle, Finland  our pattern is locked in

 

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Not good odds, as we had the same prediction for now about 16 days ago. 

The pattern for nearly 2 months has been cool weather with low pressure generated by heat over to our east, then the models show
warming about 2 weeks ahead, warming occurs but over the continent,  thus creating more low pressure for us and repeating the cycle.

May = cool, cloudy and dry - June =  cool and wet 

Until that heat shifts from Germany, Poland, Arctic Circle, Finland  our pattern is locked in

 

That's very profound, SCUK: the current pattern is locked in until it isn't?

PS: The GFS updater is having a wobbly, just now!

Edited June 13, 2019 by Ed Stone