Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[Scorcher]

21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS op promoting a change from the deluge as we head through next week.

Yes the building blocks are there for something much improved, too many in here are obsessing over the details of individual runs and theatrically throwing words like 'vile', 'dire' and 'atrocious' at them.

There is a definite trend for heights lowering over Greenland. Also on this latest GFS run, later on the door seems to be opened for the Azores high to begin to extend towards our shores. No real heat showing but at this time of year it will be warm enough in any sunshine.

[StormChaseUK]

31 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Error on GFS charts? every 6 hours it's this

Comes to something when the weather is so bad we can't tell if glitch or real

[danm]

UKMO shows a NW/SE split developing next week and a further draining of heights over Greenland:

 

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

Out of interest when people often refer to a NW/SE split, what would South Wales come under as obviously we're in the western half of the U.K. but closer to the SE than the NW? Next week for example what weather can we expect? 

Edited June 12, 2019 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[Methuselah]

And, here are the 12Z ensembles: the op's on the warm side -- at ground level. And there's a hint of thundery downpours!

     

[ICE COLD]

Something wrong with the gfs tonight I think lol . Imagine the op being true on this graph -25 850s and rising to +25 850s by the end . This place would be in meltdown

[danm]

11 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Out of interest when people often refer to a NW/SE split, what would South Wales come under as we're in the western half of the U.K. but closer to the SE than the NW? Next week for example what weather can we expect? 

There’s no hard and fast rule, depends on the synoptic set up. Rule of thumb the further north and west - cooler and wetter, the further south and east - warmer and drier. South Wales can sometimes be on the boundary in these situations, so cloudier but not as wet as areas further north. 

Edited June 12, 2019 by danm

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

5 minutes ago, danm said:

There’s no hard and fast rule, depends on the synoptic set up. Rule of thumb the further north and west - cooler and wetter, the further south and east - warmer and drier. South Wales can sometimes be on the boundary in these situations, so cloudier but not as wet as areas further north. 

Indeed, it's a continuum.

[Djdazzle]

ECM at 144. Looks a bit slack, but a vast improvement on what we have now.

[Mike Poole]

Quite a long one from me tonight, there's a lot to get through!

The 12z operationals:

UKMO promising at just T144, ICON less so at T180, GFS looking good at T240 (noting that this is now the FV3 - it went live this run) and GEM looking OK for the south at same time.

Edit to add ECM T240, looks good, in the right direction for warm and settled weather, few days to go though...

If we look at the last few 12z and 0z suites, it is clear that a pattern change is underway, as the heights dissolve over Greenland, but to what?   Not to 2012 or 2007 horribleness, a scenario that some on here continue to peddle, but I don't think glorious unbroken sunshine is the order of the day either, at least not in the foreseeable.  

The uptick of AAM on the CFS I posted a couple of days ago is still there, and it is in the next week or so, so usual CFS caveats don't apply, I use it because it is the only model for which AAM predictions are available (as far as I know):

So this bodes well, and is probably behind the ongoing improvements in model output, offering more of an Atlantic trough, UK, Europe ridge scenario, I expect this signal to increase on the modelling going forward.

Moving to longer term, the GloSea5 results for June are out today from the UKMO, here are the tertile  plots for Jul-Sep for 2m temperature, pressure and precipitation:

Perhaps not quite as bullish for heat as the June update, but still a pretty strong signal for high pressure, and warmth, precipitation - no clear signal - Seeing this, I still stick with my position for several months that the summer will be a warmer than average one, but more thundery breakdowns than last year being a key feature.  

Finally, some CFS plots for July, these need to be considered probabilistically, so here's the last 8 runs averaged Z500 anomaly:

Most high pressure dominated (position is uncertain) a couple less good.

Overall, plenty to be optimistic about once we get shot of this Greenland blocking, I think.

 

 

Edited June 12, 2019 by Mike Poole

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks more summery, feel quite humid I would think, 20 degrees plus for the south, thundery shower risk

[mb018538]

Ecm looks ok-ish without being amazing. By day 8-10 the surface pattern doesn’t look too unsettled, but the upper air profile is still dragging cooler air down - 0c isotherm through Scotland again.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Well it's a better ECM.. not great, temps probably back up to average for the time of year. One thing of note though is the decreasing pressure values over Greenland. 

[Guest]

ECM is a bit Meh, yes it’s much less bad, but still showery and probably little sunshine during the peak of the day, lots of infill etc. A small step in the right direction.....

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Alderc said:

ECM is a bit Meh, yes it’s much less bad, but still showery and probably little sunshine during the peak of the day, lots of infill etc. A small step in the right direction.....

Yes, no heatwave but certainly better to the south of the midlands as a rough guide.

Certainly its possible the North west is changeable and one of those scenarios were its cloudy and 16 in manchester and 24 and sunny in London.

Either way, it looks better than the dross experienced for the last few weeks.

 

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM is a bit Meh, yes it’s much less bad, but still showery and probably little sunshine during the peak of the day, lots of infill etc. A small step in the right direction.....

Talk about glass half empty. It’s a good run, and it will be warm in the south.

Edited June 12, 2019 by Djdazzle

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Thanks for that insightful post @Mike Poole hadn't seen you post much recently, but good to see you still bringing us your expertise

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Talk about glass half empty. It’s a good run, and it will be warm in the south.

Like I've said many times before... If your searching a major heatwave then you may be disappointed, in the short term anyway!! What makes me feel more upbeat though, is the potentially dislodging of heights to our NW. If this continues to go to plan, I feel much more hopeful for July. 

[Djdazzle]

I suspect that the ECM op will be on the cooler side of the mean. Probably cursed it now!

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

Like I've said many times before... If your searching a major heatwave then you may be disappointed, in the short term anyway!! What makes me feel more upbeat though, is the potentially dislodging of heights to our NW. If this continues to go to plan, I feel much more hopeful for July. 

Yes and certain folk seeking such a heatwave should be looking for the building blocks to be in place first. At least we are seeing this now.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Like I've said many times before... If your searching a major heatwave then you may be disappointed, in the short term anyway!! What makes me feel more upbeat though, is the potentially dislodging of heights to our NW. If this continues to go to plan, I feel much more hopeful for July. 

Even if we don't see a heatwave this month, there's plenty of time during July, August and September...Wait till the hurricane season kicks off? Plenty model-related headaches to come yet. Before snow becomes the object of desire, once again!

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Out of interest when people often refer to a NW/SE split, what would South Wales come under as obviously we're in the western half of the U.K. but closer to the SE than the NW? Next week for example what weather can we expect? 

Usually but not always if you live south of a line roughly from Bristol to the wash then you usually fair better. So I guess all of Wales would be north of that line & into the not so good category.

[mb018538]

Probably looking like pressure won’t rise sufficiently to keep things dry, even the SE may cop a few showers. I think we can assume now that early next week won’t be anything great, so all eyes on whether that Azores high can build in later next week.

[SizzlingHeat]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Probably looking like pressure won’t rise sufficiently to keep things dry, even the SE may cop a few showers. I think we can assume now that early next week won’t be anything great, so all eyes on whether that Azores high can build in later next week.

I think that Temps up to and slightly above average with spells of sunshine interspersed with a 'few showers' is a significant improvement from this week's relentless rain, storms, flooding and temps in the low teens!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

ECM mean folks, still pleased to see the lowering heights over Greenland, for me, this is the main feature. 

And as Mike pointed out... Pressure rises looking good in the later frames.

Edited June 12, 2019 by Mattwolves