Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[MATTWOLVES 3]

45 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM 12z delayed . . .

Its a bloody pitty it wasn't delayed all night, for how well it turned out. Very disappointing run... Low pressure is never far away... And high pressure is never closer enough... Yes it warms up.... But it seems to be very fleeting! Not like me to say this.... But roll on July... Hopefully the start of summer proper. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

not that bad Matt, not for Wolverhampton, Saturday onwards looks like being around 18 degrees, maybe dry at times too

[Scorcher]

Ridiculous negativity after that ECM run- it's actually showing MUCH warmer conditions than we have at the moment so I don't get what the flood of moaning is about. A warm and humid week showing on the ECM. 

Understandable if you're in Scotland or Northern Ireland that you wouldn't be a fan of this run, but most of the moaners aren't!

The other thing is, while it would be nice, we don't necessarily need pressure to lower over Greenland for something warmer to come our way.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not that bad Matt, not for Wolverhampton, Saturday onwards looks like being around 18 degrees, maybe dry at times too

Its better than what we have currently Atlantic. But I feel we need something much better come July.... Plenty of time yet. 

Edited June 11, 2019 by Mattwolves

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, as we're currently at rock bottom, that is a great EC, would be a poor EC if we were currently at full sun and 27 degrees, 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Ridiculous negativity after that ECM run- it's actually showing MUCH warmer conditions than we have at the moment so I don't get what the flood of moaning is about. A warm and humid week showing on the ECM. 

Understandable if you're in Scotland or Northern Ireland that you wouldn't be a fan of this run, but most of the moaners aren't!

The other thing is, while it would be nice, we don't necessarily need pressure to lower over Greenland for something warmer to come our way.

Its a decent run away from the NW. But the fact some think is a really good run only shows how utterly rubbish our weather has been so far this month! Don't get me wrong, i will take low 20s and settled all summer, but I think on here you either have the cool wet lovers, or the heat lovers where they want to be seeing 30+c..not many like the bit in the middle. 

[danm]

4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Its a decent run away from the NW. But the fact some think is a really good run only shows how utterly rubbish our weather has been so far this month! Don't get me wrong, i will take low 20s and settled all summer, but I think on here you either have the cool wet lovers, or the heat lovers where they want to be seeing 30+c..not many like the bit in the middle. 

I love 30c+ heat as much as anyone, but I’ll gladly take 22c-25c and sunny if that’s what’s on offer. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, danm said:

I love 30c+ heat as much as anyone, but I’ll gladly take 22c-25c and sunny if that’s what’s on offer. 

Most definitely danm, I'm pretty sure at some point this summer the 30c will be breached... Would be shocked if this failed to materialise! 

[Mr Frost]

As @Mattwolves points out not a great ECM away from the South/Southeast.

Be good to hear what our own weather god @ANYWEATHER thinks of this...

[Mapantz]

I don't care what the temperature was in your back garden today. I don't care if you think it won't reach 30°C this year. I don't care what your favourite temperatures are in Summer. What I do care about, is that this thread stays on track of discussing the model output.

Please continue (discussing model output)

Thanks.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

As @Mattwolves points out not a great ECM away from the South/Southeast.

Be good to hear what our own weather god @ANYWEATHER thinks of this...

Yes Mr frost, just like a very own Karl.... Frosty.... I'm not one for saying great weather... When a large chunk to the NW is unsettled. I would much prefer to be saying ECM is a blinding run, its gets all the uk in on the nice conditions. We all no what's coming up soon on here.... Northern Blocking shows no sign of diminishing..... 2012 all over again....

[Mike Poole]

Just to comment briefly on the ECM 12z mean, taking the NH view here at T192 and T240:

Suggestive of Atlantic trough and downstream ridge, and hinting at dissipation of the Greenland high, there's not much of an anomaly left here come T240.  Some comments earlier in the thread look wide of the mark to me, the trend is for improvement for UK summer weather, will take a little longer for anyone to claim heat waves etc. for sure, but improvement nonetheless.

[Downpour]

An improving picture in the SE. 25c likely in London next week. Perfectly happy with that!

[Djdazzle]

Yes the mean is better than the op.

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening Everyone... The crazy jet stream is bringing us some of the worst summer conditions since 2012!  But the synoptic conditions look a little better and thankgoodness by day ten! Certainly caution needed , as this time last week ecm and gfs were modelling Anticyclonic  conditions.. for this week . As they say things will get better before they get worse...

[knocker]

The ext EPS mean anomaly pretty much as expected. A diffuse area of low pressure over the Arctic with associated trough eastern Europe and mid Atlantic  And a quite a strong westerly upper flow across same towards some ridging and positive anomalies over Europe. This would portend a fairly changeable period depending on the phasing of the Pm and Tm airmassses and always favoring a N/S split, but generally temps shading a tad above average

NOAA not a million miles away from this

Edited June 11, 2019 by knocker

[ICE COLD]

Blink and your miss it event with the warmer uppers on the ECM graph . The mean heading back down at the end . HLB looking like it’s going to continue for the foreseeable. Is it going to be the year of the Greenland high , let’s hope it’s still around in November . 

[Gimmecold]

Hello there! Long time occasional peruser of this forum. I don't have anything intelligent to add I'm afraid, but I would like to express my admiration for the depth of knowledge displayed here. Just by way of balance, I would also like to say that whilst the weather will do whatever it will, I have loved these last few days of cool and wet. Last summer was torture for me! Sorry for bucking the majority opinion, and keep up the good work!

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Blink and your miss it event with the warmer uppers on the ECM graph . The mean heading back down at the end . HLB looking like it’s going to continue for the foreseeable. Is it going to be the year of the Greenland high , let’s hope it’s still around in November . 

Dry will suffice IC!!

You will fare quite well - temps into the low to mid 20s for south of Birmingham next week i would guess..

[knocker]

32 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Good Evening Everyone... The crazy jet stream is bringing us some of the worst summer conditions since 2012!  But the synoptic conditions look a little better and thankgoodness by day ten! Certainly caution needed , as this time last week ecm and gfs were modelling Anticyclonic  conditions.. for this week . As they say things will get better before they get worse...

 

Really

Well this was the ecm forecast for tomorrow from five days ago

Edited June 11, 2019 by knocker

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Blink and your miss it event with the warmer uppers on the ECM graph . The mean heading back down at the end . HLB looking like it’s going to continue for the foreseeable. Is it going to be the year of the Greenland high , let’s hope it’s still around in November . 

The main thing is that there is good support for a positive change, Day 9 and 10 can, and will, change.

[northwestsnow]

The heat is intense across much of Europe, EC looks very hot across Poland where i have just been, and taken a pic of a storm in SW Poland, temps into the low 30's...

Not sure what it is, looks like a mushroom cloud!!

[Sky Full]

I like to hear good news as soon as it's available - even if it's 'fake news' - and that's why I can't resist having a look at the CFS charts when the weather is dire, just to give myself some hope for a period beyond 10 days.  Yes - I know it's very sad and the wife probably could have me certified but I can't help it, OK? 

Unfortunately for my sanity, the first incidence of a high pressure being forecast to centre itself over the UK - according to the CFS - does not occur until the 16th July:

CFS 9 month +852hrs:  

The next is the 18th July....

CFS 1 month +888hrs   

Now I know these charts will be far from the actual conditions on the dates in question but it does seem that the current low pressure dominated conditions could hang around for a lot longer than we would like.  It's also not a good sign that the CFS goes on to show low pressure rebuilding after these dates.....  

This is not a 'summer is over' post but I am getting the impression that summer has yet to start.

Edited June 11, 2019 by Sky Full

[Cheshire Freeze]

Interesting how the modelling of this wet spell is progressing. Subtle changes in positioning and orientation of the front is evident. Looks like N England will be slammed by rain tomorrow night going by the 18z GFS

2 inches of the stuff has fallen here already

[Cheshire Freeze]

As the ECM hinted at earlier, there could be another heavy rain event possible next week as troughing meets a plume of warmer air moving N

Edited June 11, 2019 by CreweCold