Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[I remember Atlantic 252]

27 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

loving these charts, but sadly its probably an outlier and unlikely to verify?..

Yes, great charts, but a bit optimistic I reckon, will be more westerly still good though, may even make dizzy heights of 20 degrees for NE Midlands

hope EC follows trend for big improvement

[thestixx]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, great charts, but a bit optimistic I reckon, will be more westerly still good though, may even make dizzy heights of 20 degrees for NE Midlands

hope EC follows trend for big improvement

The new update debuts on tonight's 12z. Fingers crossed it continues the positive trends....

[SizzlingHeat]

12z operational huge outlier, which isn't surprising. Although most members do show significant improvement, perhaps not to the extent of the op, but still much better than this week!

[Tim M]

So it is still raining in Mansfield - 31 hours non-stop now - and yet many forecasts kept saying throughout today that it would eventually dry up this afternoon - raintoday has constantly said the rain would ease off in the 3rd/4th hour of its forecast only to change as the timeframe drew nearer.

Does anyone actually know when it will stop? (And that is not meant to be sarcastic) 

Looking at the radar it looks very unlikely that it will be this evening as many forecasts suggested earlier today.

And if not, then what chance is there for accurate forecasting days in advance when we can't forecast a few hours ahead as seems to be the case at the moment. (Again not being sarcastic)

 

 

[knocker]

Pretty much where we expected to be

Edited June 11, 2019 by knocker

[Methuselah]

And the GFS 12Z Operational really is an outlier!

  

 

But, hey...the FV3 goes live on Friday!

[Djdazzle]

ECM 12z delayed . . .

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

ECM 12z delayed . . .

upto 144, and looks good

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

upto 144, and looks good

Yes, cold rain replaced by warmer rain at that point. Interestingly, I looked at the corresponding precipitation charts on the GFS 12z run, and they still show some rain across the UK, even with better looking synoptics.

[Djdazzle]

Doesn’t seem to be working on Wetterzentrale though,

144 looks ok as you say,

[danm]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, cold rain replaced by warmer rain at that point. Interestingly, I looked at the corresponding precipitation charts on the GFS 12z run, and they still show some rain across the UK, even with better looking synoptics.

Depends on location. Looks more settled down here in the SE on that chart. 

[Scorcher]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, cold rain replaced by warmer rain at that point. Interestingly, I looked at the corresponding precipitation charts on the GFS 12z run, and they still show some rain across the UK, even with better looking synoptics.

It's more about the progression though, it's certainly moving in the right direction, even if we have a bit more dross to get through beforehand. I'd certainly take warm rain over the current horrible cold conditions. Details still to be decided for early next week anyway. The BBC have it dry here on Monday at the moment and 20C.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, cold rain replaced by warmer rain at that point. Interestingly, I looked at the corresponding precipitation charts on the GFS 12z run, and they still show some rain across the UK, even with better looking synoptics.

happily take warmer rain, rather rain at 19 degrees than 9 degrees

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

Depends on location. Looks more settled down here in the SE on that chart. 

Yes, certainly drier further SE

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

It's more about the progression though, it's certainly moving in the right direction, even if we have a bit more dross to get through beforehand. I'd certainly take warm rain over the current horrible cold conditions. Details still to be decided for early next week anyway. The BBC have it dry here on Monday at the moment and 20C.

Some warmer air being pulled N at 168 on the ECM. Depends how any troughing interacts with the warm air after that point- if it engages in a certain way, we'll be flooded out after this week's rain.

Conversely, if pressure builds, we'll get at least some sort of a warm spell.

[knocker]

The precise interaction of the complex upper trough in the eastern atlantic and any movement of the subtropical high is quite important from this point.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The ECM shows northern blocking not disbanding as much as was once suggested. The consequence is troughing sticking around the vicinity of the UK.

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The ECM shows northern blocking not disbanding as much as was once suggested. The consequence is troughing sticking around the vicinity of the UK.

Was just going to post the same. The last couple of days have shown it decaying by day 10, tonight it’s still very much there by day 9. One to watch....if it doesn’t shift then we won’t get too far.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, mb018538 said:

Was just going to post the same. The last couple of days have shown it decaying by day 10, tonight it’s still very much there by day 9. One to watch....if it doesn’t shift then we won’t get too far.

Modelling can sometimes be too eager to remove N blocking, which is why it sometimes seems to intensify as we get towards days 4&5.

If it doesn't shift, some places will be looking at their wettest June on record.

[Guest]

Just now, mb018538 said:

Was just going to post the same. The last couple of days have shown it decaying by day 10, tonight it’s still very much there by day 9. One to watch....if it doesn’t shift then we won’t get too far.

This is from the model that’s already the best and had a big upgrade today, really not what we were all hoping for.....GFS clearly a massive outlier and the outliers being driven by a tendency to break down the northerly blocking. Bit of a horrid rut summer 2019 appears to be stuck in....

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Was just going to post the same. The last couple of days have shown it decaying by day 10, tonight it’s still very much there by day 9. One to watch....if it doesn’t shift then we won’t get too far.

See where it sits in the ensembles. And whether it’s repeated on the 00z.

[northwestsnow]

I will reserve judgement on EC until i have seen the wz version as i openly admit i find WZ better to analyze, of course the ens will be interesting.

From what i can see, the op looks OK to me, esp the further away from the far NW one heads, as it stands, a NW/SE split is favoured but at this range, the dividing line is difficult to pin down..

[Cheshire Freeze]

I do wonder whether the fact we've hit solar min is having an effect. Just like the summers around the turn of the decade.

[Djdazzle]

Just now, CreweCold said:

I do wonder whether the fact we've hit solar min is having an effect. Just like the summers around the turn of the decade.

Possibly. Although it’s a bit early to make that link. You can still have hot summers with solar minimums.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Possibly. Although it’s a bit early to make that link. You can still have hot summers with solar minimums.

Indeed, though I was pertaining more to the characteristics of the jet. I.e highly meridional. When the jet exhibits these characteristics, weather conditions on the ground can remain quasi-stationary for extended periods. Whether you're stuck under troughing or HP.