Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[Tim M]

Re rainfall totals - ignore ECM and GFS, at least for where I live, as they are no longer realistic already. Here in Mansfield it has been raining non-stop - and mostly heavy - for 22 hours now and looking at the radar it will continue for many hours yet as we are right in the middle of the 'streamer' from the North Sea.

[Polar Maritime]

NetWx-SR take on rainfall accumulation over the next 48hr.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

58 minutes ago, Tim M said:

Re rainfall totals - ignore ECM and GFS, at least for where I live, as they are no longer realistic already. Here in Mansfield it has been raining non-stop - and mostly heavy - for 22 hours now and looking at the radar it will continue for many hours yet as we are right in the middle of the 'streamer' from the North Sea.

What's this with so called 'named' storms? cannot find a name for this one, for the UK surely this is the most 'severe' than any so called named storm this year?

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I do like the suggested pattern change especially ECM output lately but its all still in FI and im still concerned this 2007 pattern is just going to be locked for longer than models are saying and its just going to be stuck like a rut for weeks with blocking in all the wrong places so no way am I falling for the settled ridging in 8 days time, not after when the last two weeks of May was showing a really settled first week of June but where did all that go?  

 

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM London mean indicating something warmer as we move towards the longest day not as warm as the Op but easily into the mid 20s with some sunshine

Fairly predictable that the ECM OP would sit outside the ensemble range - though the mean is now at 10c on the 19th which is always a good sign!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Whoever keeps saying CFS is a farcical model should look again! Like for like with ECM at day 7!!

[Methuselah]

GFS has improvement at Day 5:

[knocker]

Some SYNOP rainfall totals at 0600

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/06.html

And the 0900 sat image

[Methuselah]

06Z GEFS ensembles show an inevitable improvement:

 

 

And -- and this is truly shocking -- the sun's coming out!

[mb018538]

Interesting that the 6z OP was again a cool outlier.

Also to note - there are still plenty of ppn spikes appearing right through then run.....so although the pattern change may be occurring, it doesn't appear there's any appetite for a longer lasting dry spell as of yet. 

[knocker]

Nice MODIS image at 1330 showing the low center over Brittany

Edited June 11, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The main rain belt will slowly swivel north west through this evening and overnight along with the upper and surface occlusions. But the latter tends to slip away to the north east by dawn, so for a time over many areas the persistent rain will either ease or cease, until later tomorrow.It will continue quite windy north of the surface front, particularly in the north east of England and south east Scotland

Edited June 11, 2019 by knocker

[Wimbledon88]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Interesting that the 6z OP was again a cool outlier.

Also to note - there are still plenty of ppn spikes appearing right through then run.....so although the pattern change may be occurring, it doesn't appear there's any appetite for a longer lasting dry spell as of yet. 

True. The 06z all but removes any HP from this area by 19th. Slack gradient with heavy showers. Not too dissimilar to what we have now. 

Edited June 11, 2019 by Blessed Weather
Text changed to 06z as that is the chart shown.

[MattTarrant]

The ECMWF is introducing a substantial upgrade to its Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) today (12z run). This is a notable update and includes several fundamental changes. Key changes include:

.  Improved continuous data assimilation (Ensemble of Data Assimilation (EDA) Increased from 25 to 50)

. Wave model changes (New parametrizations for wind input & deep water dissipation of waves)

. 3D aerosol climatology replaces 2D climatology. 

. Minor updates/improvements to convection & radiation scheme

Appreciable improvements include 1 - 5% reduction in upper air and 0.5 - 2% surface parameters errors in the extra tropics.  

[Methuselah]

Et, voila! Le grande improvement: 

Edited June 11, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Wimbledon88 said:

True. The 06z all but removes any HP from this area by 19th. Slack gradient with heavy showers. Not too dissimilar to what we have now. 

I think the 12z proves you shouldn't get too hung up on minor changes from run to run. A change is looking almost nailed on now and is coming into the reliable time frame. The best GFS run for some time.

[SizzlingHeat]

12Z GFS shows high pressure building from the south from Sunday/Monday with temps rising low to mid twenties, rising each day next week.

Let's hope the ECM follows this emerging trend 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

more like it!

Edited June 11, 2019 by Blessed Weather
Reference to troll removed

[Methuselah]

Echoes of 2012? I think not!

[Scorcher]

One of the most positive things in FI is seeing the Greenland high being slowly eroded. The building blocks are being put slowly into place for something much improved in the second half of the month.

[mb018538]

GEM isn’t great, but the gfs and ukmo look very similar at 144 - with the gfs going on to be a decent run. After the last week, 20-25c is going to feel like a heatwave!

[mushymanrob]

loving these charts, but sadly its probably an outlier and unlikely to verify?..

[Polar Maritime]

12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

loving these charts, but sadly its probably an outlier and unlikely to verify?..

Maybe not to that extent Mushy, But it's certainly becoming a strong trend for High Pressure to push in around that timeframe with a warm S/W flow. For how long is another question..

Edited June 11, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[northwestsnow]

I think we can assume with reasonable confidence that things will improve for many next week, as is almost always the case when we have a trough/troughs nearby and pressure high across the continent the further SE you are, the better.

Just were the dividing line will be is an unknown..

[Mr Frost]

It looks odds on from early next week that we are heading for the average Summer UK and Ireland weather - Warm/hot in the South/Southeast with thunderstorms and coolest/wettest conditions in the North/Northwest.

It has been a bizarre few days weather wise but it looks as though things will be returning to normal! 

From my own IMBY point of view it’s not a great pattern for me but hopefully the heat will spread up and reach us eventually! (I know 18 to 23 degrees is lovely but I would like a few days of 25+ and some intense thunderstorms!)

Anyways - lots to be positive about going forward if you seek hot and sunny weather.