Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[knocker]

For a change the NH 300mb profile (shows the 'fixed' trough over the UK) and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UK chart

The swathe of moderate rain can readily be seen on the latter as the fronts ( note Exeter have sneaked in an upper occlusion) edge north west as the whole system swivels. This slow process will continue through today with the rain clearing the south east but here thundery showers may well develop It will be quite windy,along the rain area as well, particularly along the NE coast. Further north should stay dry with maybe the odd shower.

The rain belt continues it's slow movement north west overnight as the showers die out elsewhere

Through Wednesday the occlusion does not move a lot so still some pulses of rain along it but the main concern is a thundery trough embedded in the circulation which also swings NW bringing more heavy rain during the day, especially to north east England. Still quite windy

Over Wednesday night and through Thursday the orientation of the trough in situ does change, courtesy of movement to the west but the waving occlusion continues to be straddled down the country so another wet day of showers and longer periods of rain.

Friday and Saturday  sees the beginning of the process of the energy flows being exerted from the west removing the blocking ridge and slowly adjusting the position of the upper trough that has been static over the UK. For the time being the country sees little little advantage in this with troughs within the circulation crossing the country so showers and longer periods of rain where the showers coalesce, with thunder in the mix. And again quite windy with coastal gales

Edited June 11, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Another showery day on Sunday and by next week a much more fluid pattern in a westerly upper flow with, for a change, the phasing of Pm and Tm air a welcome sight

[Guest]

Oh no you don’t Mr GFS 00z, not falling for that increasing settled, pleasant and summery look again out beyond day 8/9...

[Scorcher]

21 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Oh no you don’t Mr GFS 00z, not falling for that increasing settled, pleasant and summery look again out beyond day 8/9...

The change happens a lot earlier than that though. It may a bit slower than yesterday's op runs but the GFS and ECM are on the same page at 144 hrs, a lot better than what we have currently. There is a change on the way, it's just a matter of how fast in my opinion.

The ECM is looking great to me for early next week:

[knocker]

And similarly the change underway with the ecm after the weekend

 

[mb018538]

ECM goes full on blowtorch this morning.....again, expecting it to be a fairly big warm outlier.

Still on a knife edge today, a lot hinging on how that low stalls out to the SW, and if we can build pressure in ahead of it.

[Scorcher]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM goes full on blowtorch this morning.....again, expecting it to be a fairly big warm outlier.

Still on a knife edge today, a lot hinging on how that low stalls out to the SW, and if we can build pressure in ahead of it.

It could be an outlier but it's also a very feasible evolution, I reckon the GFS run is a cool outlier this morning.

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

It could be an outlier but it's also a very feasible evolution, I reckon the GFS run is a cool outlier this morning.

You’d be partially correct there - on the 20th June the 00z op is the coldest run! A very pessimistic gfs this morning. The reality is probably sandwiched between the two.

[h2005__uk__]

Does MeteoGroup use a blend of models? Both WeatherPro and BBC apps (i.e. MeteoGroup) have been showing London maxes around 24/25C next week for several days now. 

[Methuselah]

11 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Indeed ! People looking at charts which won't verify at day 9 or 10.....shadows of 2012?

Says you...showing a chart that won't verify and, at the very same time, expecting things to turn out like 2012? 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Says you...showing a chart that won't verify and, at the very same time, expecting things to turn out like 2012? 

It is actually like Sept 2012, 23rd to 25th

[I remember Atlantic 252]

23 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

You’d be partially correct there - on the 20th June the 00z op is the coldest run! A very pessimistic gfs this morning. The reality is probably sandwiched between the two.

Good GFS though still, 19 degrees for my area next week, decent temp for time of year

[mb018538]

17 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

Does MeteoGroup use a blend of models? Both WeatherPro and BBC apps (i.e. MeteoGroup) have been showing London maxes around 24/25C next week for several days now. 

I think they tend to favour the ECM?

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Good GFS though still, 19 degrees for my area next week, decent temp for time of year

Absolutely - i'd take 19c with some sunny spells over this dogs dinner any time. 11c yesterday, 14c today. It's mid June, not mid April for gawd's sake.

[Downpour]

18 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

Does MeteoGroup use a blend of models? Both WeatherPro and BBC apps (i.e. MeteoGroup) have been showing London maxes around 24/25C next week for several days now. 

Yes, it’s a blend of the big three. 

[Downpour]

Just now, mb018538 said:

Absolutely - i'd take 19c with some sunny spells over this dogs dinner any time. 11c yesterday, 14c today. It's mid June, not mid April for gawd's sake.

Who cares if it’s cool on a Monday and Tuesday when we are at work? An improving picture now...

[mountain shadow]

53 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM goes full on blowtorch this morning.....again, expecting it to be a fairly big warm outlier.

Still on a knife edge today, a lot hinging on how that low stalls out to the SW, and if we can build pressure in ahead of it.

Better,  much better this morning from the ops runs. 

Really hoping the ridge stalls the upper low in mid Atlantic and doesn't allow it into the Isles. 

Edited June 11, 2019 by mountain shadow

[Methuselah]

GFS 00Z has the UK under a different regime, than the one we're used to, at T+144, and at T+384 (not to be taken too seriously) has things looking a good deal better:

144:  

384:  

FV3 also shows change by 144, and total change at 384 (again, not to be taken too seriously!):

144:  

384:  

And the GEFS ensembles show a clear, though gradual, warming trend:

        

        

[northwestsnow]

14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Better,  much better this morning from the ops runs. 

Really hoping the ridge stalls the upper low in mid Atlantic and doesn't allow it into the Isles. 

Im sweltering here in warsaw but have to fly back to rainy Blighty later, EC looks really good again..

[Polar Maritime]

GFS still indicating a transition to something warmer and more settled from around the longest day from the S/W. And now into ECM timeframe..

Edited June 11, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

The EPS mean anomaly at 5-10

and given this four days ago, not too bad

[Sky Full]

It's disappointing, to say the least, to be contemplating widespread weather warnings for heavy rain in the middle of June but here are the predicted rainfall totals up to Saturday midday (+108h) according to:

UKMO.                                                        ECM

  

GFS.                                                             ICON

  

The GFS is the most pessimistic for the most widespread rain this week but all seem to agree that Merseyside, North Wales and the North East of England will have the highest overall totals - up to 90mm in some areas but locally this could be exceeded.  This really is a poor outlook for a summer month so let's hope there is a significant change in the forces driving our summer weather so we can enjoy a warm and settled July and August and put all this soggy stuff behind us...

[knocker]

Meanwhile back on the farm. Certainly some potential for the odd storm this afternoon in the south/south east

Edited June 11, 2019 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

ECM London mean indicating something warmer as we move towards the longest day not as warm as the Op but easily into the mid 20s with some sunshine

[Methuselah]

ECM H500s don't look bad, at T240, either: