Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[ANYWEATHER]

9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm not seeing what others are seeing. Looks like a continuance of unsettled to me.

 

Indeed ! People looking at charts which won't verify at day 9 or 10.....shadows of 2012?

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Wimbledon88 said:

GFS going for another southerly tracking low late next week. Given how well they modelled this current spell, it looks very likely. Any improvement, if it occurs, will be short lived. 

Yep. Cherry pick the most unsettled chart available, state an incorrect fact about the GFS modelling this spell (it didn’t), then fail to look at the rest of the GFS run.

And since when is a chart 10 days away likely to verify?

[knocker]

19 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

GFS going for another southerly tracking low late next week. Given how well they modelled this current spell, it looks very likely. Any improvement, if it occurs, will be short lived. 

You are confusing unreliable surface detail with the predicted change of the upper pattern.

[mountain shadow]

39 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Definitely not for England and Wales. It could well warm up quite considerably. How can you not see a difference between this week's charts and the ones for around a week's time?

I don't live in England and Wales.  The pattern might very well be changing,  but from where I live,  it's simply rain from the East being replaced by rain from the West.

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I don't live in England and Wales.  The pattern might very well be changing,  but from where I live,  it's simply rain from the East being replaced by rain from the West.

But this is the model output thread, not the regional thread. The general pattern shows a significant change. That is what people were talking about.

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

You are confusing unreliable surface detail with the predicted change of the upper pattern.

Looks like a pattern change from unseasonably wet and cool to typical British summer fayre from where I'm sitting.

You do get the impression from some in here (and it's the same in winter) that it's all or nothing. In reality, we'll most likely swing back to average. Which is still something most people would relish over the current pattern.

[matty40s]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

But this is the model output thread, not the regional thread. The general pattern shows a significant change. That is what people were talking about.

The problem this year is that significant pattern changes were put back week after week all winter and into spring.  Nothing has changed now, the models keep promising change, and keep shifting it back every day. 

They are models, not accurate forecasts. 

[Djdazzle]

8 minutes ago, matty40s said:

The problem this year is that significant pattern changes were put back week after week all winter and into spring.  Nothing has changed now, the models keep promising change, and keep shifting it back every day. 

They are models, not accurate forecasts. 

Nobody is saying they are accurate. But this pattern change was at day 9/10, now it’s at 6/7. So it’s getting closer to the reliable.

[Snowy L]

Never thought I would be so happy to see a zonal Atlantic driven chart, that is how dire it is at the moment. Expected to be 10C below average tomorrow, the opposite of that would be a high of 30C just to put it in perspective of how dreadful it is. Trending in the right direction at least at the end of the week. Not looking for high pressure, the important thing to get in the reliable timeframe is the troughing moving north/northwest away from us towards Iceland which is what both ECM and GFS show during Sunday/Monday. Just 6 days to go...

[danm]

8 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Never thought I would be so happy to see a zonal Atlantic driven chart, that is how dire it is at the moment. Expected to be 10C below average tomorrow, the opposite of that would be a high of 30C just to put it in perspective of how dreadful it is. Trending in the right direction at least at the end of the week. Not looking for high pressure, the important thing to get in the reliable timeframe is the troughing moving north/northwest away from us towards Iceland which is what both ECM and GFS show during Sunday/Monday. Just 6 days to go...

Absolutely agree. A more traditional, zonal, westerly flow is far more preferable to the disgusting weather we have at the moment. Shows how bad it is! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, danm said:

Absolutely agree. A more traditional, zonal, westerly flow is far more preferable to the disgusting weather we have at the moment. Shows how bad it is! 

Yes, for our locations miles better, but worse for those in W Scotland, but that's where the rain/wind should be

[Wimbledon88]

14 days out and GFS still going for LP /troughing around UK and Ireland. Looks to be another low forming in the Atlantic around then too. Met Office update would appear to agree. The wait for summer goes on. 

[Mr Frost]

Just to add some balance to the thread as it has not been all doom and gloom today - I know loads of folk down South are having nightmare weather at the moment but it really has been a glorious Summer day up here near the West Coast of Scotland.

Morning...

Afternoon...

Night...

Hopefully these outlooks on the models at day 8 onwards get into the reliable timeframe - snow charts at that range in Winter and the ones in Spring/Summer so far have been non starters 99% of the time!

It would be great to get a sustained period of sun/warmth for all the UK and Ireland. (20 to 25 degrees and some thunderstorms would be ideal)

You do get the feeling this chart below could be the story of Summer...few days of heat for the South and then back to average again for a few days...rinse and repeat. 

Time will tell - hopefully we get the Summer we desire because I can’t handle a crap Summer coming so soon after a 5 out of 10 Winter! 

Edited June 10, 2019 by Mr Frost

[SizzlingHeat]

17 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

14 days out and GFS still going for LP /troughing around UK and Ireland. Looks to be another low forming in the Atlantic around then too. Met Office update would appear to agree. The wait for summer goes on. 

Did you purposely ignore the charts this GFS 12z showed for the week prior to this?

[Wimbledon88]

1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Did you purposely ignore the charts this GFS 12z showed for the week prior to this?

No, haven't ignored them. As my earlier post said, they are showing a short lived improvement. Long term, more of the same as we have now. 

[Djdazzle]

20 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

14 days out and GFS still going for LP /troughing around UK and Ireland. Looks to be another low forming in the Atlantic around then too. Met Office update would appear to agree. The wait for summer goes on. 

I can only assume this post is in jest. If it is serious, then you have some issues!

You’ll be posting CFS charts soon . . .

[SizzlingHeat]

5 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

No, haven't ignored them. As my earlier post said, they are showing a short lived improvement. Long term, more of the same as we have now. 

No they don't.

Run the GFS from the chart you have posted until the end of that particular run. No more northern blocking, high pressure becoming more dominant, with the jet moving further north. You cant cherry pick one chart in exactly 14 days and state there are no changes. There are huge changes to the vile, atrocious charts this week. Its pattern changes we are looking for, which is absolutely becoming more likely going into next week.

Edited June 10, 2019 by SizzlingHeat

[Badgers01]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I can only assume this post is in jest. If it is serious, then you have some issues!

You’ll be posting CFS charts soon . . .

what's the problem people are posting charts from models and discussing them .....the gfs operational in  the long range continues to look unsettled...

[Mr Frost]

8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I can only assume this post is in jest. If it is serious, then you have some issues!

You’ll be posting CFS charts soon . . .

Cmon mate don’t slag off the CFS...it’s got the Summer and Winter patterns nailed on even at this range...

Summer...

Winter...

[SizzlingHeat]

6 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

what's the problem people are posting charts from models and discussing them .....the gfs operational in  the long range continues to look unsettled...

Unsettled you mention?

[Djdazzle]

8 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

what's the problem people are posting charts from models and discussing them .....the gfs operational in  the long range continues to look unsettled...

The problem is that they are picking charts from 2 weeks away and posting them as if they are fact, and ignoring any output that suggests otherwise.

Edited June 10, 2019 by Djdazzle

[Cheshire Freeze]

15 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Unsettled you mention?

Anyone (and I mean anyone) posting a day 16 operational chart to win an argument or prove a point deserves to be ignored in the same vein as someone trying to predict EuroMillions numbers.

Edited June 10, 2019 by CreweCold

[SizzlingHeat]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Anyone (and I mean anyone) posting a day 16 operational chart to win an argument or prove a point deserves to be ignored in the same vein as someone trying to predict EuroMillions numbers.

It was sarcastic.... showing exactly as you say, how useless posting individual charts 2 weeks in advance are, the same as some individuals posting charts from a similar timeframe with low pressure.

Edited June 10, 2019 by SizzlingHeat

[Catacol]

15 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The problem is that they are picking charts from 2 weeks away and posting them as if they are fact, and ignoring any output that suggests otherwise.

Probably difficult to do anything other than improve from the week we have now - but Crewe has it right: change from poor to average. Strongly -NAO to be replaced by trough to our west and ridge to our east looks the likely development...and this will bring temperatures back up to average and possibly a bit above average at times, but I doubt it will keep things settled for any length of time. GEFS has quite a pronounced signal for a trough just off to the SW in the extended, and the high pressure anomaly over Greenland has not gone altogether - so a very very different setup to last year. Azores High not a major player yet. Given that modelling often overestimates the speed of change no awesomely warm and dry spell in the offing for this June I think.

Longer term - will heights reestablish over Greenland again into July? I am struck again by the continuing depth of the cold SST anomaly off the US east coast and by the strength of the trades this month and slow passage of the pacific wave. However I reckon the start to July at least will be a good one for summer lovers as a long wave pattern more conducive to better weather takes hold. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

This shows the futility of looking at FI at the minute (or any minute really).... +NAO on the 12z run, building N Atlantic HP and -NAO on this run

Edited June 10, 2019 by CreweCold