Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[knocker]

The good news is that the ecm has renewed energy from the west shifting out upper trough our of the way from T144 >

 

Edited June 10, 2019 by knocker

[mb018538]

Fantastic ECM again today....probably a top end or outlier compared to the ensembles, but the NH profile at 240 looks superb:

[Summer Sun]

UKMO and ECM differ quite significantly by Thursday 6pm on rain totals. Both have substantial amounts but UK is the most extreme with locally 140mm

Edited June 10, 2019 by Summer Sun

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Fantastic ECM again today....probably a top end or outlier compared to the ensembles, but the NH profile at 240 looks superb:

Here's hoping mb. Just hope it's not another false dawn.

[knocker]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Here's hoping mb. Just hope it's not another false dawn.

But this is along the lines of the pattern change that the EPS has been indicating

 

[knocker]

The 0700 chart. Moderate rain creeping NW

[mushymanrob]

20 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Similar posts occur even before December starts for winter to be over. Hard to understand the science behind any such post.

 

but surely john, there IS science behind it somewhere, just because i cant articulate it doesnt mean it doesnt exist ... because patterns repeat themselves and thats why we get 'long hot summers', 'washout summers' , droughts, etc. whatever causes that must have a scientific explanation.

it cannot be ignored that many washout/wet/poor summers started in early june often after a rather dry spring ... 98, 99, 07, 08, 12, are all examples .

of course there is no unwritten law , a wet start to june doesnt 'write off' summer, but going off previous similar examples of such patterns it would suggest that a 'poor' summer, at least for the first half, is more likely then any drift towards a more settled/dry/warm pattern emerging.

lets face it, the greenland block is going nowhere fast, and until that weakens/declines/moves, a change in the current poor/wet outlook is unlikely . any such change remains firmly in f.i.





 

Edited June 10, 2019 by mushymanrob

[mushymanrob]

the problem i have with the ecm is that it has no real support (atm) from the noaa anomaly chart that has been consistent in suggesting the current pattern it does. (other then transitory ridging)

 

Edited June 10, 2019 by mushymanrob

[Methuselah]

It's looking like a pattern-change, to something a tad less dire, is underway by this time next week?

FV3: 

And, here are the 06Z GEFS ensembles. Though, with the FV3's takeover being imminent, one never knows quite how useful they still are:

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

22 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

the problem i have with the ecm is that it has no real support (atm) from the noaa anomaly chart that has been consistent in suggesting the current pattern it does. (other then transitory ridging)

 

GFS is good too, probably the more likely result, much better anyway from around Fri this week, temps around 18 degrees, decent for time of year

[Weather Boy]

31 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

but surely john, there IS science behind it somewhere, just because i cant articulate it doesnt mean it doesnt exist ... because patterns repeat themselves and thats why we get 'long hot summers', 'washout summers' , droughts, etc. whatever causes that must have a scientific explanation.

it cannot be ignored that many washout/wet/poor summers started in early june often after a rather dry spring ... 98, 99, 07, 08, 12, are all examples .

of course there is no unwritten law , a wet start to june doesnt 'write off' summer, but going off previous similar examples of such patterns it would suggest that a 'poor' summer, at least for the first half, is more likely then any drift towards a more settled/dry/warm pattern emerging.

lets face it, the greenland block is going nowhere fast, and until that weakens/declines/moves, a change in the current poor/wet outlook is unlikely . any such change remains firmly in f.i.





 

Hi Rob

I think that there are a couple of flaws here. Firstly, there are at least tentative signs that the part I have bolded may be wrong.

Second, happy to be corrected, but it seems to me that on this forum everyone says Greenie high = southward forced jet = washout summer.  True, we have seen that before, the classic being 2007. Yet, we have had HP in place in the region (Iceland too) throughout the spring and conditions, certainly in my location have been generally very benign. So I don't think it follows.

Thirdly, don't really buy your opening sentence! It's not a lack of articulation, it's a lack of evidence, to my mind!

Cheers, WB

[knocker]

33 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

the problem i have with the ecm is that it has no real support (atm) from the noaa anomaly chart that has been consistent in suggesting the current pattern it does. (other then transitory ridging)

 

 

I think the EPS is in the same ball park mushy

[Methuselah]

35 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

but surely john, there IS science behind it somewhere, just because i cant articulate it doesnt mean it doesnt exist ... because patterns repeat themselves and thats why we get 'long hot summers', 'washout summers' , droughts, etc. whatever causes that must have a scientific explanation.

it cannot be ignored that many washout/wet/poor summers started in early june often after a rather dry spring ... 98, 99, 07, 08, 12, are all examples .

of course there is no unwritten law , a wet start to june doesnt 'write off' summer, but going off previous similar examples of such patterns it would suggest that a 'poor' summer, at least for the first half, is more likely then any drift towards a more settled/dry/warm pattern emerging.

lets face it, the greenland block is going nowhere fast, and until that weakens/declines/moves, a change in the current poor/wet outlook is unlikely . any such change remains firmly in f.i.

I know what you're saying, mushy. But what about 'washout' summers that followed either wet or nondescript springs:1972,1974,1979,1985,1988?

But, having said that, I'll be the first to admit that my interpretation of model output is biased by my memories of patterns past...

[mushymanrob]

3 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

Hi Rob

I think that there are a couple of flaws here. Firstly, there are at least tentative signs that the part I have bolded may be wrong.

Second, happy to be corrected, but it seems to me that on this forum everyone says Greenie high = southward forced jet = washout summer.  True, we have seen that before, the classic being 2007. Yet, we have had HP in place in the region (Iceland too) throughout the spring and conditions, certainly in my location have been generally very benign. So I don't think it follows.

Thirdly, don't really buy your opening sentence! It's not a lack of articulation, it's a lack of evidence, to my mind!

Cheers, WB

fair comments

its the strength of the greenland high that matters, because its as present as the azores high , even in hot summers.

to my way of thinking, there has to be a scientific explanation as to why we get long periods of recurring patterns that lead to hot summers/big freezes etc. but i fully accept that these patterns can last a few days or a few months..

just to be clear, im not suggesting this summers a 'write off', but going off previous examples of similar synoptic patterns, it must be 'likely' that this current pattern might not be shifting anywhere fast and that a lengthy period of poor/wet conditions might well last for a while.

i hope my pesimism is misplaced!

[mushymanrob]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I know what you're saying, mushy. But what about 'washout' summers that followed either wet or nondescript springs:1972,1974,1979,1985,1988?

But, having said that, I'll be the first to admit that my interpretation of model output is biased by my memories of patterns past...

true, but we had a dry warm spring this year, so the examples i gave are most apt. what you do highlight though is that certain patterns that lead to recurring conditions can last a long time.

i certainly hope the ecm, and the eps chart @knocker just posted prove to be spotting a new emerging evolution.

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

But this is along the lines of the pattern change that the EPS has been indicating

 

Maybe Knocker, but the GFS Oz blew the Euro ridge away quickly with the Atlantic piling through.

If we do get the euro high in place, I'm hoping it sticks around for more than a few day, but I'll leave the longer rangers forecasters like Tamara et al to provide guidance that far out.

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Fantastic ECM again today....probably a top end or outlier compared to the ensembles, but the NH profile at 240 looks superb:

To quote myself - I was right:



Op run a warm outlier, but the trend from day 6 onwards is a warming one.
 

[danm]

37 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

fair comments

its the strength of the greenland high that matters, because its as present as the azores high , even in hot summers.

to my way of thinking, there has to be a scientific explanation as to why we get long periods of recurring patterns that lead to hot summers/big freezes etc. but i fully accept that these patterns can last a few days or a few months..

just to be clear, im not suggesting this summers a 'write off', but going off previous examples of similar synoptic patterns, it must be 'likely' that this current pattern might not be shifting anywhere fast and that a lengthy period of poor/wet conditions might well last for a while.

i hope my pesimism is misplaced!

Long hot summers, washout summers and big freezes are all relatively rare in this country. What is pretty standard are changeable weather patterns, so a typical UK summer will have periods of warm, sunny weather and periods of cool, unsettled weather. No doubt that the “washout” summers of 2007 and 2012 had cool, wet June’s, but so have many other average or even warm/hot summers. 

If we are going to start to “pattern match” (rarely a good thing IMO) then just based on the law of averages and what we’d typically expect in the UK, this dire spell of weather will improve. And then get worse again. And then improve again. 

[shaky]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO and ECM differ quite significantly by Thursday 6pm on rain totals. Both have substantial amounts but UK is the most extreme with locally 140mm

Also highest totals seem to have pushed slightly further south in the last 24 hours!!

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I know what you're saying, mushy. But what about 'washout' summers that followed either wet or nondescript springs:1972,1974,1979,1985,1988?

But, having said that, I'll be the first to admit that my interpretation of model output is biased by my memories of patterns past...

Quite right. Even the springs mushy listed weren’t that dry overall, just had a lengthy dry period at some point. April 1998, spring 1999, May 2007 (actually wetter than June or July here), spring 2008, Apr/May 2012 - all were changeable or downright unsettled.

Oh the joys of trying to pattern match!

[Methuselah]

According to the 06Z, things are still set to improve (to an albeit small degree) come this time next week...Will it be long-term, short-term or simply non-existent? That is the question!

 

Edited June 10, 2019 by Ed Stone

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO and ECM differ quite significantly by Thursday 6pm on rain totals. Both have substantial amounts but UK is the most extreme with locally 140mm

I'm from Barnsley so looks like gonna get drenched lol

[mountain shadow]

25 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

According to the 06Z, things are still set to improve, come this time next week...Will it be long-term, short-term or simply non-existent? That is the question!

 

Didn't look much like an improvement to me. We could be looking at the wettest June on record unless there is a sudden change. It is the GFS of course though and likely to overplay the Atlantic.

Edited June 10, 2019 by mountain shadow

[mb018538]

Further good news:


00z ECM clusters have 100% agreement on an Atlantic trough/UK ridge setting up by day 10. Let's just hope this stays as we get closer to the last 10 days of the month.

[mountain shadow]

Just now, mb018538 said:

Further good news:


00z ECM clusters have 100% agreement on an Atlantic trough/UK ridge setting up by day 10. Let's just hope this stays as we get closer to the last 10 days of the month.

Wouldn't mind the trough being further West though as the North West will be susceptible to fronts encroaching otherwise.