Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The 18z looks to be bringing a window of more settled  conditions by day 8...but suprise, suprise, the high pressure quickly transfers North leaving us open to attack, with low pressure following on later.. Temps look to be around average at this stage, but probably trending below later. Its not great tbh! 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Well 0z from gfs is out, seems models have caught on a trend (for now) for a rise of HP in around 7 days time but don't get too excited because it soon merges with heights to the North and things quickly retrogress bringing further spells of LP from the Atlantic while the Azores drifts off back to sleep. Looking like June could be write off if this run comes off. And before anyone starts, yes I know two months of summer left.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Why are people looking at next weekends( 5%) chance start of a warm spell then saying it will only last 2 days. And then on the other hand saying FI is 5+ days. The UK is the UK and every so often we get strange weather events. Like heavy rain for 3 days like this week coming. We are gonna have to get used to up and down summers and winters. We had major snow in March from an easterly in 2018 plus we had nice summery weather in the summer of 2018.events that really are stand out in my eyes. This week could be the time for the heavy rain/flooding event. Then next month we could have 2 weeks hot sunshine/heat wave event. Nobody is really sure what is gonna happen next week. Its all stats including averages/background signals That do and will be wrong like the winter just gone. The world's weather is changing due to global warming and the weather models will get certain changes thrown at them and not know how to perceive it has the model may not have that certain algorithms installed into it. It will get harder and harder to predict the weather as time goes on and we will have to make the technology better to cope with it. Since I was a child I have been fascinated with the weather and it has stayed with me ever since until I'm now 38. My partner once asked me why do I like look at the weather so much has its boring to her. I had one simple answer for her.   !! YOU EVER KNOW WHAT'S GONNA HAPPEN NEXT!! and that's the buzz roll on the 00z night all. 

[Catacol]

Greenland blocking showing no sign of relenting yet. I wonder if we have a residual long term impact of the stratospheric pattern through winter which kept suggesting blocking to the NW but didn't deliver until winter was gone...and now we have a semi permanent feature without a wintertime vortex to shift it. Whatever the cause - true summer heat for any length of time will be difficult to achieve for as long as pressure remains high over Greenland.

Cold sea surface anomaly off US east coast also helping maintain reasonably active atlantic trough beneath the block, while unusually cold surface temps in the Med wont be helping with the establishment of a Euro high. Pacific trade winds also seem to be forecast to hold off progress of the pacific wave for another week at least, so any shift in the standing wave pattern looks on hold for now. End of June may be the next realistic opportunity for a change in pattern -  2 more weeks of low pressure dominated UK with occasional Azores ridging and generally average to below average temperatures possible.

Keep an eye on Greenland...and if you are like me enjoy the continued lack of hayfever and excessive heat. Rain in the garden and reservoirs plus a bit of thunder in the air is no bad thing at all. 

 

Edited June 9, 2019 by Catacol

[Cheshire Freeze]

Some of these rainfall totals are looking borderline insane for June. Icon 0z suggests 100mm of rain in some parts to day 4/5

[knocker]

Outlook - The movement of the upper trough, in conjunction with the TPV in the vicinity of Franz Joseph, would appear to the the key vis the medium term evolution.

The NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight

A clear start to the day in most areas with just a few showers around in northern Scotland, courtesy of the little occlusion. These will tend to pep up during the day and showers will also spread east across Wales and central southern England and there could be some thunder in the mix.

The showers will die out this evening but continue in the south west courtesy of a trough and in the early hours rain will effect the south east as a waving front edges close

The moderate rain associated with the aforementioned front will swivel westwards during Monday whilst showers will continue along the trough, locally heavy with thunder again in the mix. Elsewhere quite sunny although there will still be the odd shower over N. Ireland and Scotland.

Over Monday night and through Tuesday the wave continues to develop and by midday there is low of 1009mb over southern England with the associated occlusion running into the North Sea. To the west the much discussed amplification is underway. The upshot of all this is persistent moderate rain in many areas, particularly eastern and central England, with heavy thundery showers in the south

By midday Wednesday the amplification has created a high cell near Iceland as the upper trough 'adjusts' it's position over the UK On the surface the occlusion is straddled across the north with a trough in the circulation further south so still some persistent rain and thundery showers around.

By Thursday there is a lot going on under the umbrella of the upper trough which is being 'stretched' by the amplification and a surface low has tracked west to be just east of Edinburgh by midday and a trough is straddled across southern England. Ergo some very wet weather in the north east and some heavy thundery showers in the south. And a cold day

 

 

[knocker]

According to the gfs over the next five days there is little change with the upper trough staying close to the UK which portends a continuation of unsettled weather with temps a little below average

Edited June 9, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

And the GEFS would appear to be heading in the direction alluded too earlier

[northwestsnow]

42 minutes ago, knocker said:

According to the gfs over the next five days there is little change with the upper trough staying close to the UK which portends a continuation of unsettled weather with temps a little below average

A poor pattern for western Europe, but on the other side of the coin a large swathe of Europe is sizzling..

[Guest]

Oh dear, looks like the consensus for higher pressure to build in later next week seems to have wobbled significantly this morning and it’s really very difficult to see how anything decent for June can be rescued. The heat that is building over Eastern Europe is also causing concern for me, not only will that likely become an issue for those locations but as we know those sorts of ‘heat domes’ can be incredibly to shift leaving a locked in pattern, could be one of those years where Greece ends up cooking in the mid 40s etc. IMO while very early in the summer those comparisons with some of the notably poorer summers for us in the uk certainly seem to be gaining more weight and those that raised concerns 10days about what the coming pattern could lock us into appear to have much closer to mark irrespective of technical expertise in the subject. 

[Methuselah]

After a quick wheech through the 00Zs, it's clear that there's nowt much to get excited about:

 

And the FV3 doesn't offer much, either:

 

The ensembles...Oh dear!

Don't jump off the roof, Dad?

[slater]

Not great outlook this morning, we must knew this was going to happen after the summer last year, it was never going to be repeated. One fact Iceland who had the coldest and wettest Summer on record last year due to our constant HP, which sent all the LP to them have had stunning weather last couple of weeks and looks that way for the next couple weeks too. 

[mb018538]

High pressure solutions greatly reduced this morning......and ukmo in particular looks very poor with the trough not even thinking about being pulled west at 144 hours. Rain rain and more rain.

[summer blizzard]

0z Euro completely culls the idea of a pressure build and swings the low back through.

[northwestsnow]

EC mean suggesting an improving picture next week...

Moreso the further south and east one heads...

There is no escaping the fact that the 1st of June will not be remembered by warm weather fans, second half is up for grabs imho.

 

Edited June 9, 2019 by northwestsnow

[shaky]

Pretty depressing charts this morning!!!plenty of heavy rainfall around!no realistic sigh of any high pressure in the reliable!got models showiing what you would normally see in october or november!!tomorrow looks a really wet day across east of england and then spreading further west across  most of england!!north east england looks set for a deluge!!

[northwestsnow]

7 hours ago, Catacol said:

Greenland blocking showing no sign of relenting yet. I wonder if we have a residual long term impact of the stratospheric pattern through winter which kept suggesting blocking to the NW but didn't deliver until winter was gone...and now we have a semi permanent feature without a wintertime vortex to shift it. Whatever the cause - true summer heat for any length of time will be difficult to achieve for as long as pressure remains high over Greenland.

Cold sea surface anomaly off US east coast also helping maintain reasonably active atlantic trough beneath the block, while unusually cold surface temps in the Med wont be helping with the establishment of a Euro high. Pacific trade winds also seem to be forecast to hold off progress of the pacific wave for another week at least, so any shift in the standing wave pattern looks on hold for now. End of June may be the next realistic opportunity for a change in pattern -  2 more weeks of low pressure dominated UK with occasional Azores ridging and generally average to below average temperatures possible.

Keep an eye on Greenland...and if you are like me enjoy the continued lack of hayfever and excessive heat. Rain in the garden and reservoirs plus a bit of thunder in the air is no bad thing at all. 

 

The last sentence is a remainder that not everyone enjoys heat/humidity etc which is a fair point Catacol.

For me there are chinks of light in regard to the Greenland block, EC mean looks to be showing signs of pulling the main block westwards which may open the door for some of the heat building across Europe.

Time will tell.

[Methuselah]

T+120 and absolutely nothing to get excited about, apart for the prospect of rain:

If things carry on like this, for too long, crops'll be rotting in the fields or running to seed...?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I would say that if the Greenland block could be put on a meter for parking itself, it would be looking at one hell of a fine by now! Until this block breaks down, we are going to be suffering with inclement conditions, and little chance of a lengthy settled warm conditions. Perhaps some of us at this stage, myself Included, need to take a break from the rigours of model watching.... Especially the ones who searched high and low for 5 months of the winter, for that elusive cold snap! At this rate by the time winter comes around, some of us are going to be totally spent! Perhaps if we can step back and view the models in say 10 day's to a fortnights time, things may become  clearer, and it will give us a much needed recharge time... Just a thought... But searching for your ideal weather type can be extremely taxing, especially when there are no signs of it coming off. Hey folks book yourself a couple of weeks in the sun, get acclimatised to the Conditions, and then just hope and pray that some of that weather will be brought back with you... No  charts from me today, I just can't find anything at this stage, that looks like a pattern breaker! And tbh.... Its doing my head in now... Enjoy your Sundays folks.... Next week looks like a duck fest... 

Edited June 9, 2019 by Mattwolves

[StormChaseUK]

06z continues with the Autumn theme. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

00z and 06z:  Dreadful. I'll give this pattern two weeks to shift, if no change then I think its time to consider closing curtains on Summer 2019. Its normally the pattern that sets in around Solstice which will determine July and August. Sadly models are showing no real sign of a pattern change in the next 2 weeks. .

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

00z and 06z:  Dreadful. I'll give this pattern two weeks to shift, if no change then I think its time to consider closing curtains on Summer 2019. Its normally the pattern that sets in around Solstice which will determine July and August. Sadly models are showing no real sign of a pattern change in the next 2 weeks. .

Sorry but this is the kind of post that grates...

We are 9 days into June and you are considering closing the curtains on july and august?

6z isnt dreadful, the models to me are moving in a direction that will break this horrid block down.

I apprciate its frustrating at the moment, im as frustrated as anyone  believe me.

[Catacol]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I would say that if the Greenland block could be put on a meter for parking itself, it would be looking at one hell of a fine by now! Until this block breaks down, we are going to be suffering with inclement conditions, and little chance of a lengthy settled warm conditions. Perhaps some of us at this stage, myself Included, need to take a break from the rigours of model watching.... Especially the ones who searched high and low for 5 months of the winter, for that elusive cold snap! At this rate by the time winter comes around, some of us are going to be totally spent! Perhaps if we can step back and view the models in say 10 day's to a fortnights time, things may become  clearer, and it will give us a much needed recharge time... Just a thought... But searching for your ideal weather type can be extremely taxing, especially when there are no signs of it coming off. Hey folks book yourself a couple of weeks in the sun, get acclimatised to the Conditions, and then just hope and pray that some of that weather will be brought back with you... No  charts from me today, I just can't find anything at this stage, that looks like a pattern breaker! And tbh.... Its doing my head in now... Enjoy your Sundays folks.... Next week looks like a duck fest... 

Yep. Signs at the very end of extended EPS modelling as pointed out by Northwestsnow that it may drift westwards a bit - but I wouldn't put lots of money on that. The pacific is certain to fire up at least a bit, and that will mean some kind of counter to dominant trades at the moment....but the waxing and waning of a long wave pattern is not the same as a pattern shift and that La Nina-esque smell to the pacific forcing during a weak El Nino phase seems to be a long term factor that continues to carry weight.

My mind keeps being pulled back to the winter gone, when just about every expert and semi expert and NWP modelling felt that a pattern shift on the back of substantive increases in AAM was likely....but it never came. SSW impacts didn't quite align, and a stubborn +NAO phase was determined to remain in charge despite moments of definite challenge. We have now flipped to a very definite -NAO shape on the back of the final warming - and I wonder if we are once again going to see a setup through the summer where the established elements of the early season pattern are resistant to change.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sorry but this is the kind of post that grates...

We are 9 days into June and you are considering closing the curtains on july and august?

6z isnt dreadful, the models to me are moving in a direction that will break this horrid block down.

I apprciate its frustrating at the moment, im as frustrated as anyone  believe me.

Absolutely, I have no issues with those pointing out the dire output at the moment, it is pretty awful for the heat-seekers among us. If you really need the rain, and are a hayfever sufferer, there are some positives to take from the next 7-10 days mind you! 

Those who then write off close to three months of summer based on 2 weeks output though, well they need to pick up their toys, go to another thread and calm down. It contributes nothing and gets in the way of informative posts from @knocker, @Catacol and @Tamara recently, among others. Keep it up guys  

[Gael_Force]

31 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

At this rate by the time winter comes around, some of us are going to be totally spent!

Better save some energy for later. There are those who subscribe to the stratosphere opening new season as it closed the last.This post strong SSW/final warming pattern has been seen before (around last solar minimum) If pattern holds, late autumn and early winter may be of interest.