Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[StormChaseUK]

Really poor June, temps next week only just getting into double figures with large rainfall accumulations. 

Whats even more shocking is the arctic circle is 30C while all this is going on.

[Summer Sun]

A very wet week ahead next week for parts of England and Wales with flooding certainly possible in places as rivers rapidly fill up after the dry spring

12z UKMO

Total rain to 13z Tuesday

Total rain to 13z Friday

[Djdazzle]

Wouldn’t pay attention to those precipitation charts. Massively overdone. (Let’s be honest, they always are!)

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A very wet week ahead next week for parts of England and Wales with flooding certainly possible in places as rivers rapidly fill up after the dry spring

12z UKMO

Total rain to 13z Tuesday

Total rain to 13z Friday

Just what I like to see in summer ss , not hot but cool and wet with a few sunny days thrown in now and then . 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Just what I like to see in summer ss , not hot but cool and wet with a few sunny days thrown in now and then . 

That's all he posts, let's be optimistic though, 12Z continues the improvement around this time next week, wanna see the same on the EC

[Frosty.]

Again there's a Gfs signal from the 12z around mid month for high pressure or at least strong ridging and warmer conditions to become established although we can't quite shake off the cool troughs..as for next week, the least said the better!!

Edit..actually there's good news for bone dry east anglia, there could be a month's worth of rain during early next week..you may need a boat though!

Edited June 8, 2019 by Frosty.

[Guest]

Well the output is just terrible, next week looks like being the worst summer week since June 2012, many places struggling to get above 15c for 4 or 5 days. Down here only 12days last failed to reach 20c, almost nailed on we’ll reach that figure by the 13th of the June this year.

No way I’m getting suckered into this high pressure building from the south, way, way to far ahead currently, need to get another 5days of output backing this up.

[Methuselah]

Signs of a very marginal warm-up/dry-up on the way:

GFS op: 

       FV3:

Ensembles are none too clever, either?

                       

              

Anyone-else get the feeling that, as happened during the winter months, we're all waiting for something that 'should' happen?

[danm]

13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Anyone-else get the feeling that, as happened during the winter months, we're all waiting for something that 'should' happen?

Don’t forget that in winter we’re looking for something specific that’s very hard to achieve in the UK - snow. All we’re really looking for now is some warm, settled weather. Not too hard to achieve, and will come around soon enough. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, danm said:

Don’t forget that in winter we’re looking for something specific that’s very hard to achieve in the UK - snow. All we’re really looking for now is some warm, settled weather. Not too hard to achieve, and will come around soon enough. 

Agree with that of course, but settled weather is still rare, not as good on EC as the 00Z, but still signs of getting better

[Summer Sun]

Maybe just maybe something warmer and drier as we move into the 2nd half of June

Now to see if we can get this on more runs over the coming day's down to a reliable timeframe

[knocker]

The movement of the upper low from t120 >T192 this evening according to the ecm

Which essentially translates to the surface low slowly tracking north then west to be around the old OWS station India  about 59N and 20W. Quite a showery period with more persistent rain on the fronts. Temps below normal but the precise position and movement of the low is critical because the warmer air is quite close to the east.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Wow... ECM next week needs stringing up... Its that bad I refuse to post it... I will give that job to someone else. Talk about using cloud seeding when it's to dry!! Next week we need cloud dusting... Just to dry the bloody atmosphere up. A little light at the end of the tunnel.... But as usual it remains at day 8+....one of these days folks it may just come of... 

[mb018538]

Ecm looks good day 9-10 again, but needs a lot of pieces falling into place our way to come off. If it’s still there in 2-3 days I’ll buy into it. Day 5+ is just fantasy at the moment.

[Snowyowl9]

The azores high has been taking over by an azores low day 9 and 10 the jet stream is acting very weird indeed diving so much further south.

This next week full of plenty of interest as lows are tracking unusual directions lately last two from south to north end of next week from SE to NW,thunderstorms possible on Thursday`s ECM.

Cold very wet strong NElys Tuesday/wedneday,and then everything is going back to front otherwise east to west pattern.

[Wimbledon88]

I just love this chart. A weather enthusiasts dream. Wind, rain, thunderstorms, the lot. Summer certainly on hold. Met Outlook not looking at any improvements, certainly in the south, until later in June, after midsummer day. Need the rain down here anyway. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Before we get to next weekend there is an awful week to endure with daytime maxima struggling to get into double digits with a winds coming from cold directions.  The week ahead is going to be worser than standard Autumnal weather. Some serious flooding potential in SE too. Its like 2007 and 2012 being rolled into one. Another June to make the top 10 wettest Junes on record.   Flaming June blah blah

Edited June 8, 2019 by 38.5*C

[MATTWOLVES 3]

And you know what's even worse than having to endure this horrid inclement weather!! Having to keep listening and reading about how horrible it is... Not just on here, in the media, on the TV etc. I will hold my hands up and say, this wasn't the June I was expecting, I expected alot of high pressure ridging tbh. This month will probably go down with below average temps and above average rainfall. But perhaps its time to remind ourselves that last year was not normal!! Where this spell is actually closer to the average June mark! Perhaps end of June may improve, I'm not overly optimistic at this point... That leaves July and August... Well let's just say we are long overdue a very warm August!! But one thing I will say is, this summer could well be a timely reminder of just how fickle the British weather is. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Good evening everyone! An High level of Shannon entropy  from the models,  Take no notice of model output from gfs and ecm  from T+96  but the shades of 2012 are appearing...And historiclly  nothing new about warm air up into the Artic. ,the chart from 1953 

[SMU]

7 hours ago, Snowy L said:

On the other hand from 2013/14 to 2016/17 we had zero Northern blocking in winter, so I'm not buying that. I agree with someone's point made a while ago that with climate change, patterns are being stuck in place for far longer than normal.

Everything posted in factual - so not sure what your not buying?

These features will become more persistent - but wont feature 'all' the time...

[MP-R]

55 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

And you know what's even worse than having to endure this horrid inclement weather!! Having to keep listening and reading about how horrible it is... Not just on here, in the media, on the TV etc. I will hold my hands up and say, this wasn't the June I was expecting, I expected alot of high pressure ridging tbh. This month will probably go down with below average temps and above average rainfall. But perhaps its time to remind ourselves that last year was not normal!! Where this spell is actually closer to the average June mark! Perhaps end of June may improve, I'm not overly optimistic at this point... That leaves July and August... Well let's just say we are long overdue a very warm August!! But one thing I will say is, this summer could well be a timely reminder of just how fickle the British weather is. 

This June could end up being as unusual as last June for totally the opposite reasons. The most amazing thing I find is that we are having such unsettled conditions with a very incompetent Atlantic. It's as if the UK is a trough magnet - Storm Miguel lifts out of the UK then miraculously a low forms over Europe and moves towards us. The GFS even showed it move up across the UK to the northwest then swing back in and across us again before moving north again. I'd love to know what causes that.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

And you know what's even worse than having to endure this horrid inclement weather!! Having to keep listening and reading about how horrible it is... Not just on here, in the media, on the TV etc. I will hold my hands up and say, this wasn't the June I was expecting, I expected alot of high pressure ridging tbh. This month will probably go down with below average temps and above average rainfall. But perhaps its time to remind ourselves that last year was not normal!! Where this spell is actually closer to the average June mark! Perhaps end of June may improve, I'm not overly optimistic at this point... That leaves July and August... Well let's just say we are long overdue a very warm August!! But one thing I will say is, this summer could well be a timely reminder of just how fickle the British weather is. 

While dry the CET for June last year wasn’t outrageous at 16.2c, pretty much identical to the year before. Hard to call this early but something around 14c flat seems a good punt currently especially given some potentially very chilly days next week. 

[TJS1998Tom]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Maybe just maybe something warmer and drier as we move into the 2nd half of June

Now to see if we can get this on more runs over the coming day's down to a reliable timeframe

Still hoping this will be early signs for a decent July 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Good evening everyone! An High level of Shannon entropy  from the models,  Take no notice of model output from gfs and ecm  from T+96  but the shades of 2012 are appearing...And historiclly  nothing new about warm air up into the Artic. ,the chart from 1953 

I can't make much sense of this post... Firstly, you say take no notice of output beyond 96hrs..then go on to mention shades of 2012 emerging!! Which you have been talking about for weeks now. Secondly you say, nothing unusual about Arctic warming right now... But you've been talking about record cold up there for ages! There won't be a repeat of 2007 or 2012..it will be a repeat of 2019...every year is unique and greets us with something very different.

[snowray]

Don't like the look of this for the NE of England.