Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[snowray]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

No I think it's a sausage shaped high that steve likes

Anyway, just looked at the Ecm 00z operational and it's nowhere near as bad as last evening's 12z, there's more fine than wet and more warm than cool!

Don't like the look of this though.

[Summer Sun]

00Z ECM also shows over 100mm of rain for some parts of the UK over the next 10-day's

Edited June 7, 2019 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, snowray said:

Don't like the look of this though.

I suppose what I should have said is the uppers (850's) look better on the Ecm 00z, especially later but as you say, there's plenty of rain shown too.

Edited June 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[summer blizzard]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I suppose what I should have said is the uppers look better, especially later but as you say, there's plenty of rain shown too.

Todays Euro trapped a cyclonic low over/south of the UK whereas last night maintained the low to the north east. 

Last nights Euro may be cooler (ala August 2014) but this mornings run is 2007 2.0. It would likely be horrifically wet even with warmer uppers. 

Amazing output. 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

30 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

00Z ECM also shows over 100mm of rain for some parts of the UK over the next 10-day's

For us in East Anglia that would be handy!

[Methuselah]

And it all (at least according to op) ends here: 

I think I'll wait for the ensembles!

[mb018538]

Looking more and more likely this June will go down in history as memorable - but for all the wrong reasons.

June 2012 was the record wettest with 145mm, if some of those ppn charts verify for the next 10 days, then that record could be seriously under threat come the end of the month. Failing that, it should easily make it into the top 10 hall of shame. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

The ECM 00Z suggests it'll take at least 7 days to get rid of the upper cold pool & low over or close to south UK, pretty high pptn accumulations next week as well suggesting 80 to 100mm.     

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

And it all (at least according to op) ends here: 

I think I'll wait for the ensembles!

Good post Ed, I'm giving you a point even though there is no point..I mean points.

Edited June 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Good post Ed, I'm giving you a point even though there is no point..I mean points.

And here's how the FV3 finishes:                                                                                                               

And the ensembles:  

                                 

Looks like a case of Early Onset FI to me? Time I wandered out to look at the weather. If I can sneak myself past the Milk Monitor!

[Derecho]

Wonder where ANYWEATHER is?, the 06z GFS is his kind of run 

Can't be denied that it is a poor run with one or two exceptionally cold days thrown in there, especially next Sunday which would probably threaten a few local maxima records for that date

 

The 13th looks like a poor day too and although a bit far out this is getting closer to the reliable...

 

One straw to clutch is that a high to the north is often poorly modelled and this could easily just sink over the UK instead

So I think besides those opening two days the first half of June looks pretty lacklustre but heatwaves can pop up at very short notice at this time of the year so there is still no way we can write off summer yet and compare it to 2007 or 2012. A fair few of the Junes in the 1990s were stinkers but delivered some good heat later (e.g. 1990 and 1997) so no need to panic at this point.

It seems that all the heat that is usually over Spain is either being bottled up over Africa whilst low pressure over our part of Europe is encouraging heat over SE Europe for now.

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Wonder where ANYWEATHER is?, the 06z GFS is his kind of run 

Can't be denied that it is a poor run with one or two exceptionally cold days thrown in there, especially next Sunday which would probably threaten a few local maxima records for that date

 

The 13th looks like a poor day too and although a bit far out this is getting closer to the reliable...

 

One straw to clutch is that a high to the north is often poorly modelled and this could easily just sink over the UK instead

So I think besides those opening two days the first half of June looks pretty lacklustre but heatwaves can pop up at very short notice at this time of the year so there is still no way we can write off summer yet and compare it to 2007 or 2012. A fair few of the Junes in the 1990s were stinkers but delivered some good heat later (e.g. 1990 and 1997) so no need to panic at this point.

It seems that all the heat that is usually over Spain is either being bottled up over Africa whilst low pressure over our part of Europe is encouraging heat over SE Europe for now.

True...although that's what we would normally expect to see in Winter months, I mean the sinking highs.

Edited June 7, 2019 by snowray

[Man With Beard]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

00Z ECM also shows over 100mm of rain for some parts of the UK over the next 10-day's

That is a real sickener for mid-June!!

EC clusters do not really allow much hope of an upturn, what with such a strong tendency to NW blocking out to D10

[Frosty.]

I'm a bit slow today, just seen the Gfs 6z operational and the uk is a trough magnet from start to finish, at least there would be some welcome rainfall..as today for example.

Edited June 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[Greggers]

3 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Wonder where ANYWEATHER is?, the 06z GFS is his kind of run 

Can't be denied that it is a poor run with one or two exceptionally cold days thrown in there, especially next Sunday which would probably threaten a few local maxima records for that date

 

The 13th looks like a poor day too and although a bit far out this is getting closer to the reliable...

 

One straw to clutch is that a high to the north is often poorly modelled and this could easily just sink over the UK instead

So I think besides those opening two days the first half of June looks pretty lacklustre but heatwaves can pop up at very short notice at this time of the year so there is still no way we can write off summer yet and compare it to 2007 or 2012. A fair few of the Junes in the 1990s were stinkers but delivered some good heat later (e.g. 1990 and 1997) so no need to panic at this point.

It seems that all the heat that is usually over Spain is either being bottled up over Africa whilst low pressure over our part of Europe is encouraging heat over SE Europe for now.

What does that temp ananomly chart show us?... are the reds above avg temps and the blue below avg temps?

[danm]

3 minutes ago, Greggers said:

What does that temp ananomly chart show us?... are the reds above avg temps and the blue below avg temps?

Yes

[Methuselah]

And this is what we might expect, come T+117, just before the model's entropy runs wild?

 

I can live with that (like there's a choice!); it's not 2018 revisited -- but at least it'll be mild!

[knocker]

The low tracks NE into the North Sea overnight and the band of heavy rain wrapped around it will do likewise. Currently there are a lot of heavy showers around in southern central regions, including thunderstorms in the Bristol area. and these will fie out pretty quickly this evening.

It will also be quite windy in the SW quadrant of the low

 

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And this is what we might expect, come T+117, just before the model's entropy runs wild?

 

I can live with that (like there's a choice!); it's not 2018 revisited -- but at least it'll be mild!

I would have used the laugh smiley but it's gone..like everything else....but yes it looks like summer is on hold for the next few weeks..perhaps even the rest of July..I mean June!

Edited June 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I would have used the laugh smiley but it's gone..like everything else....but yes it looks like summer is on hold for the next few weeks..perhaps even the rest of July..I mean June!

I think I see the oh-twelve-special? Record cold? 

 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think I see the oh-twelve-special? Record cold? 

 

I've just seen the cfs and August is looking nae bad at the moment.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

37 minutes ago, Greggers said:

What does that temp ananomly chart show us?... are the reds above avg temps and the blue below avg temps?

Aye, always other way round in winter, we're in red

[knocker]

An overview of this evening's gfs days 4-9

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

An overview of this evening's gfs days 4-9

I'm no expert but to me that looks unsettled apart from the far N / NW..

Edited June 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[thestixx]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm no expert but to me that looks unsettled apart from the far N / NW..

Spain & France taking a right battering too! At least we're not alone.