Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 hours ago, 38.5*C said:

yet folk don't like it when I bring a bad looking charts or ensembles

I can't really answer that 38.5. In fairness the current output is dire, but has far as I'm concerned it could look alot better come tomorrow. I won't write of 2 or 3 weeks at a time, and make comparisons to other previous bad events... Its the weather and its literally impossible to make comparisons with anything, no matter what stats say. I'm just hoping for a big improvement in the next few days, when things are rock bottom.. There is only one way to go. Yesterday is history... Tomorrow is a mystery... And that couldn't ring truer for our little climate. 

Edited June 7, 2019 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[johnholmes]

I did say I would post y thoughts when the NOAA 500 mb output was updated this evening.

For what that is worth below is my thoughts on what we see from these charts.

On thur 6th both ec and gfs now show ridging!, not yet noaa, at least over the UK that is=wait for its output this evening then show all 3

Ec and gfs show ridging as main feature; for ec see above=the 4th option in 10 days!!

Gfs has been showing trough dominated in the same period until this morning with it also showing a ridge dominated uk

NOAA this evening also joins the idea of ridging and +ve heights more so perhaps than the one above with the ridge and +ve eights now into the uk.

So overall, not conclusive but it does look rather more like some kind of surface ridging will develop in the upper ridge. Just where is open to discussion or indeed how long might it last, let alone will it get very warm with lots of sunshine. That is not the purpose of analysing these upper air predictions. I suspect it is a 2-3 day feature.

And the set of 3 charts below

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

An example of the uncertainty in the outlook after the weekend. This is the last 4 runs the gefs put together. A big scatter from the 11th of June onwards chart is 850hpa temps. Night my friends. 

Edited June 7, 2019 by weathermadbarnsleylad
Missed pic

[knocker]

The NH 500mb profile and North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the WV image

The intense low in Biscay will track north east and fill slowly during today to be over the south east coast by 1800. The main band of rain, already into the south west, associated with the occlusion will also track north and as the front is wrapped around the low the heavier rain will tend to be in the proximity of this.Thus as can be seen some areas, such as Wales, will be more adversely effected. Some hefty showers, with thunderstorms in the mix, will spring up late in the day in central/southern England behind the front and it will get quite breezy along the south coast. For a change it will be dry and bright day in Scotland for much of  the day

During this evening the heavy showers will continue for a while and the rain belt will continue to stay adjacent to the wrapped around occlusion as the low continues to track north east into the North Sea. This movement does pep up the wind in the south west quadrant so gusting gale force along the south coast. Staying dry over northern Scotland.

By midday Saturday the low is in the central North sea with the occlusion draped along the north east coast so it follows that the rain belt will track NE across the country before clearing the east coast by the afternoon. Showers will follow behind this in the WNW wind which will be still quite strong in the south. A rather cool day.

Over Saturday night and through Sunday the low tracks into southern Norway so the wind will abate but a stray occlusion will bring some persistent rain to the north whilst further south it will be a showers and sunshine day, but some of these may coalesce along the trough.

Over Monday and Tuesday amplification is taking place upstream with the knock on effect of a resurgence of the subtropical high to our west and elongating the upper trough over the UK

 Essentially a couple of days of sunshine and showers, some of which could be thundery

 

[Djdazzle]

Yet another wildly different run from GFS. It was showing a hot southerly for much of Europe - now it’s showing a cool northerly!

[knocker]

To continue briefly with the gfs.

It appears to to be the handling of the quite intense amplication that appears to be causing the uncertainty next week, As can be seen by midday Wednesday there is an intense upper low in the Arctic associated with cold trough plunging down the eastern side of North america. The knock on effects downstream are fairly obvious.

This is the progression of the pattern over the next three days with the complex energy flows curtailing any northward expansion of the ridge,

Not much point in getting to involved with detail because this is open to different interpretations and thus a different surface analysis, but temps would stay generally a tad below average

 

Edited June 7, 2019 by knocker

[mountain shadow]

Another shockingly bad ECM ops run.  Truelly awful for Summer. 

 

[knocker]

The ecm's take on next week. It essentially promotes low pressure to the south which spreads north over the UK with a front tacking north west through Weds into Thursday initiating some wet weather in the south accompanied by quite strong easterly winds  A marked regional variation of temps over the three days but quite cold generally with temps below average

Edited June 7, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Classy geostationary at 0600

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not great ensembles again. The mean still not heading in the right direction. Perhaps a weak signal for dryer conditions beyond mid month. 

[mb018538]

12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Not great ensembles again. The mean still not heading in the right direction. Perhaps a weak signal for dryer conditions beyond mid month. 

Just looks like really average conditions. Ppn spikes along the entire plot just shows sunshine and showers to me...no flat-line anywhere, so no signs of things settling down any time soon. No heat on the cards either. Looks like the settling down around mid month from our friends at the met is a  bit of a bust as well.

[cfbath]

As it's a bleak morning outside and the mood in here is seemingly low thought i'd just say a huge thanks to all who share their interpretation of the model outputs. 

I tend to only frequent or "lurk" within these forums in the run up to my beloved Glastonbury festival to see what ground conditions will be like in the weeks leading to it and also for overhead conditions when i'm on site myself. 

I love reading everyone's posts (although given it's only 2 and a half weeks away i'd love them to be more positive!) 

It's great to see how passionate everyone is!

Keep up the good work all 

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Not great ensembles again. The mean still not heading in the right direction. Perhaps a weak signal for dryer conditions beyond mid month. 

Indeed, Matt: things are nae looking great:

The FV3 ends with this: 

The 00Z op, with this:    

There is hope on the ensembles but, with all the improvements being the wrong side of the start of FI, I'll no' be putting much faith in it:

                                                   

Not time for the Summer Doc just yet, though: 

  

[knocker]

Three spot checks of the NH profile from the EPS T120 > T240 illustrates the speed and collapse of the amplification which I feel goes along way to explain. just my opinion of course, why the detail remains tricky to pin down in this period

Edited June 7, 2019 by knocker

[BlueHedgehog074]

A glance at the GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and GEM at 144 hours (in that order below), and this is what they show:

As you would probably expect 7 days away, not all exactly the same. All these runs, however, show a similar kind of theme with High Pressure fairly close by to our North-West or North around the Iceland area with Low Pressure generally close by to our South or South-East over Western France. Except on the GFS, where it doesn’t really show any defined Low Pressure to our South (but does have a shallow upper Low to our South/South-East).

The GFS does still show that the surface pressure is lower the further South-East you are over the U.K, and higher further North-West. It’s also the model that has the North-Western UK High Pressure closer to us than the other models, where the centre of it is just to the South-East of Iceland. The GEM has it over Eastern Iceland with the High Pressure on that model generally more concentrated to our North and the ECMWF and UKMO has the centre of the High over Western Iceland. 

Aa a result of the GEM having High Pressure migrating a little bit more to our North at 144 hours, compared to the other 3 models, the Low Pressure to our South generally seems the most menacing on that model over Southern UK. The ECMWF is very similar with that Low over the UK and almost seems as influential over Southern areas in comparison to the GEM. Though it overall has the Low situated a little bit more towards South-Western UK. 

The UKMO is a little bit less menacing with that Low being less defined and is a little bit further South compared to both the ECMWF and GEM. On the GFS I spoke about their not being a defined Low at all to our South or South-East, but does show more of a weak circular(ish) Low Pressure just to the East of the U.K. Since the Icelandic/Eastern Icelandic High on the GFS is the most influential, it seems like more of the U.K could stay dry as a result, though you probably can’t rule out a few odd showers towards the South-East of the U.K. The GEM and ECMWF would likely show more in the way of concentrated rain and showers (some of which probably being thundery) over Southern UK with those Southern UK Lows being more invasive. 

I think, overall, while I do agree that we ought to be particularly cautious of what the operational models are chucking at us at the moment, there does (for now), seem to be a possible trend for High Pressure to develop to our North-West (exactly where is still not fully certain I don’t think), with lower Pressure to our South and/or East. Probably a good reason for the North-Western UK Summery weather fans to be quite enthusiastic, as it would mean the best of the driest and brightest weather would be in that area. And more in the way of changeable or unsettled conditions to the South and East of the U.K. Probably quite cool overall, especially under any rain and showers. Particularly again the further South and East you are in the U.K, but possibly to the South-West too.

The 6 to 10 day 500mb anomaly chart from the NOAA (issues yesterday evening), generally supporting this kind of scenario. Upper ridging close by to the UK, But, again, having looked through some of the main models, the surface ridging probably likely close by to the North-West in general. Maybe the sweet spot around/near-by the Iceland area? 

 

[knocker]

I think some care needs to be taken with the medium term five day anomaly charts given the forecast speed of the interim pattern changes. JH alluded to this last evening

As can be seen the ext EPS has us back in the 'groove' so to speak.

Edited June 7, 2019 by knocker

[Guest]

I think Ugh sums it up! Not sure what’s worse, my hangover or the model output this morning! It’s a really poor outlook and a generally poor June appears to becoming increasingly likely. The northerly blocking just won’t go away and really does appear to be getting into one of those cycles where it could dominate the medium to long term outlook. Only 6 days since the easter warm spell have reached 20c here and it’s hard to see where the next one will come from. Could be going into July with the warmest day of the here (by 3c) being in the middle of April.

pass the ibuprofen please....

[StormChaseUK]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Another shockingly bad ECM ops run.  Truelly awful for Summer. 

 

I rest my case M'Lord. Several people are saying this morning what I got told off for saying over the last week.  

I thought the 00z looked better after next Weds though

[danm]

27 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

I rest my case M'Lord. Several people are saying this morning what I got told off for saying over the last week.  

I thought the 00z looked better after next Weds though

No ones denying the current output is awful. However, some were calling you out for saying this summer will be worse than 2012. No way anyone can say that on the 6th of June.

No getting away from the fact we’re in a protracted cool, unsettled spell. Awful for early summer, although we have seen some June stinkers over the years with the weather then improving dramatically as we approach July. We need to write off any chance of warmth, heat or prolonged settled weather for the next 7 days at least. 

However, we’ve still got 90% of summer to come. Plenty of time for things to improve. 

[Summer Sun]

Looking at 00z UKMO the southern half of the UK could see a lot of rain over the next 6-day's with up to 150mm in places.

Nowhere escapes the rain but it's the south where the biggest concerns could be if UKMO is close to the mark

[Paul]

Can we keep it to the models in here please, and leave the childish bickering.

[Methuselah]

So, this is where we might be, come the likely advent of FI: who knows how the op run (let alone the other ensemble members) will go?

 

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking at 00z UKMO the southern half of the UK could see a lot of rain over the next 6-day's with up to 150mm in places.

Nowhere escapes the rain but it's the south where the biggest concerns could be if UKMO is close to the mark

Anything like that actually occurs and this June will likely end being in at least the top ten wettest and we start to seriously talk about summer flooding, utter trash output from the models.....

Edited June 7, 2019 by Paul

[snowray]

Could this be Steve M's fabled heart shaped high that he goes on about sometimes? 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Could this be Steve M's fabled heart shaped high that he goes on about sometimes? 

No I think it's a sausage shaped high that steve likes

Anyway, just looked at the Ecm 00z operational and it's nowhere near as bad as last evening's 12z, there's more fine than wet and more warm than cool!