Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, Why said:

It's  a little vague that statement. Some said the same thing about Friday's system (correctly at the time) but for many rain-starved areas the totals have been significantly downgraded. It's far from perfect summer weather, but it's also not the relentless doom and gloom that the likes of @38.5*C like to troll us with. 

unusual username too for those type of posts

[Singularity]

Tamara just saved me from trying to explain why I distrust the model output a great deal at the moment. 

I think the more settled 'blip' of the 00z GFS, GEM and UKMO runs was not a total red herring, just a little over-enthusiastic with the pace of developments.

Having said that, in a setup such as the models are showing for early next week with a trough SE of the UK and a blocking high to the N/NW, past experience tells me that the trough nearly always stays at latitudes S of the UK, either in-situ or backing west through France. A cause of many of those lost wintertime snow events from mid-range modelling, for example.

So with this in mind alongside the challenging dual tropical signals, I'm very sceptical of just how much GFS, UKMO and GEM (especially!) bring the trough across the UK mid-late next week. I think the 00z ECM and 12z ICON runs provide a more realistic guide (assuming that aforementioned fast ridge build scenario is too rapid). Whether the 12z ECM will keep the model in that view, will soon be apparent. There's a slight extension north of the 1015 mb isobar around the trough at +96 so I'm not sure it will be.

 

Seems to me that the RMM plots of MJO are painting a picture of model confusion caused by those competing tropical signals; for over a week now the projected propagation east has been shown to apparently slow to a crawl or even stall, but the observation data has instead shown steady eastward movement. Today is an especially strong example of this, likely due to the Indian Ocean convection having pepped up a bit.

I seem to recall that IO convection caused some trouble last Aug-Sep, taking the fine summer downhill when it might otherwise have thrived. So I'm not a fan of this situation at all!

[Methuselah]

So, here are the 12Z ensembles:

 

And, as can be seen, divergence sets in as early as Day 5...so hardly a time to be taking the op runs as gospel...so NW's very-own Smiths tribute band's defeatist knee-jerk ejaculations might be a tad premature?

[northwestsnow]

Well its but one EC operational but look at the intense heat on the continent!

Any sort of easterly down the line might be a tad warm

[Djdazzle]

The ECM evolution from 144 to 168 doesn’t look remotely possible.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

The ECM evolution from 144 to 168 doesn’t look remotely possible.

Its certainly a bit different to the 00z run, as others have said, little consistency at present.

Suffice to say i won't be sat in the corner cheering on 12Z EC det!

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its certainly a bit different to the 00z run, as others have said, little consistency at present.

Suffice to say i won't be sat in the corner cheering on 12Z EC det!

You can pretty much ignore anything past 96 hours at the moment.

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

ECM still keeps the high pressure nudging in from the Atlantic, (it's been suggesting this since Sunday) so increasing confidence that northern & western areas especially will at least see a couple of days of fine settled weather beginning and middle of next week but low pressure could quickly return by next Thursday, still if that decent spell comes off although short, its better than nothing ️

Edited June 6, 2019 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, but it is only June, very rarely a summer month in the UK

[Singularity]

I think it's not unreasonable to deduce that the exceptional Arctic blocking pattern coinciding with a complicated tropical situation has more or less 'broken' the modelling beyond a few day's range. Sounds extremist but the fact is, we've got little past precedent by which to test the models in such situations, so they won't be as 'well-grounded' until either the MJO makes it to the Pacific or the Arctic blocking subsides. Seems to me that the former is the more likely to happen first.

[SizzlingHeat]

Well the good news is....the ECM is probably the some of the worse, if not the worse summer synoptics you will see in the UK for June. As a result, the 00z can only be better

[Mapantz]

I've just removed a bunch of off-topic posts. If you want to randomly chat about the weather, use the appropriate threads, please?!

Thanks.

[Mr Frost]

Right who let @38.5*C programme the ECM 12z tonight? 

Deary me it’s a proper stinker - even for here!

You have to laugh at all the heat to the East while we are stuck in no mans land getting slapped about the face with a big fish! (It’s the same in Winter when Scandinavia and most of Mainland Europe are snowed in while we trot about in 8 degrees and drizzle!)

As previously discussed by numerous posters...best to take all the model output with a pinch of salt at the minute! Trusting them is about as much use as going for a bath fully clothed. 

[SizzlingHeat]

Quick summary of this evening's suite:

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not a very good ECM mean tonight, nothing remotely warm out to day 10 at this stage. 

[mb018538]

9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Sorry to bring bad news folk... Hopefully a better day tomorrow. The mean was poor beyond belief.. 

Very poor when the ensemble doesn’t even go above 8c at the warm extreme!

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z operational shows serious heat not far to the east of the uk, impressive stuff, probably too hot actually, luckily no such problem for the uk.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 12z operational shows serious heat not far to the east of the uk, impressive stuff, probably too hot actually, luckily no such problem for the uk.

Yes Karl I would agree. But that mean stuck at 5c really does need to improve, with sunny spells it could be respectable... Under cloud and rain.... Well.... Mid teens at best...

[Snowyowl9]

Cold N/NEly next week forget heat no sign of that next 10 days frosts in the north wouldn`t rule out.

Interesting runs at the moment.

 

This editor is stuck in the past shows a different past chart.

Edited June 6, 2019 by Snowyowl9

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

To be fair, a lot of locations are forecast to receive over a months worth of rain in the next 10 days. I’d say that qualifies as pretty miserable, especially for high summer!

 

The 'next 10 days', not the whole summer! It's only June 6th!

[ANYWEATHER]

3 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Cold N/NEly next week forget heat no sign of that next 10 days frosts in the north wouldn`t rule out.

Interesting runs at the moment.

Evening! 2006  had a very warm summer what followed was 2007 .?  Certainly not saying this will happen,  have not checked the archives..will do folks! 

[Methuselah]

I think I'll go and sleep on it. Then come back in the morning and count the mood swings! Night all.

[Frosty.]

Things can change very quickly, I remember the great mood on here this morning following the 00z runs which showed high pressure building in and increasing warmth next week..who knows what tomorrow may bring..enjoy the ride!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yeh that's me done for the evening also... Forget the 18z....one for the history books before I go and one I would love to see a repeat of this winter.... Jan 87 folks... Fun and games galore... 11th - 14th.

[Norrance]

Back to the models or more posts will go. There is a historical section for previous Summer weather and the moans and chat thread for the rest.