Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm glad I've already had me tea, because this dogs breakfast of a chart would have killed me appetite!! 

Edited June 5, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

Hints of an improvement; but, too soon to get exited!

 

[Methuselah]

As I said: too soon to get excited!

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Forget what I said earlier, I must have been sun blind... Get ya barbys ready... Its round the corner.... Oh and i mean barbecue

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

As I said: too soon to get excited!

 

Prefer this to your chart above ED. this shows SW'lys, other shows NW'lys yuk

[Mike Poole]

Models still flailing around with no clue as to the direction of travel, I see.  

You can see it in the verification statistics, here for T120:

All models trending towards cannon fodder through late May into early June.  Good reason for me to take a step back from analysis of every run - uncertainty is king at the moment...

Edited June 5, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

The ensembles have improved. And I mean IMPROVED!

  

 

[mb018538]

They are certainly drier after mid month....perhaps the trough may finally lift out of our vicinity by then!

[Djdazzle]

7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

They are certainly drier after mid month....perhaps the trough may finally lift out of our vicinity by then!

The question is though - what will take its place? The ECM 240 chart doesn’t look great for where it could be heading next. Don’t like that Greenland high.

[Guest]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

The question is though - what will take its place? The ECM 240 chart doesn’t look great for where it could be heading next. Don’t like that Greenland high.

The Greeny high remains rock solid on the ECM 12z and completely agree, probably wouldn’t like to see the T264/288 if there was one....

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All! Northern Blocking ie an undulating jet stream will bring computer models to an absolute  frenzy ..within the ten day range...Guess what?...???  This evening suite just show's that.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I've got a feeling the ECM operational will once again be on the colder side of the ens... Hints of a warm up towards the end on the mean.. Will post the ensembles shortly. 

Let's call it a slow improvement towards the end. The operational once again on the cold side. Though the mean is better, its still in the struggling territory. 

Edited June 5, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Summerstorm]

6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I've got a feeling the ECM operational will once again be on the colder side of the ens... Hints of a warm up towards the end on the mean.. Will post the ensembles shortly. 

You would be correct the Operational really has been terrible recently constantly chucking out outliers. - Never mind you have edited your post to include a graph of the ENS. 

Edited June 5, 2019 by Summerstorm

[Norrance]

Can we please get back to the models?  Enough said about 2012.

Thanks.

[knocker]

Outlook - It's still tricky trying to pin down the medium term evolution but the EPS is still indicating a rapid diffusion of our trough after the next amplification and thus becoming more settled, albeit the light at the end of the tunnel not excessively bright.

In the meantime the NH 500mb profile and the Atlantic surface analysis for midnight.

Rain is still effecting Scotland and N. Ireland, courtesy of the little low/occlusion and a stray trough, and this will continue through today. And very shortly the north east of Scotland will just catch the edge of the heavy rain tracking up the North Sea as the wave tracks south west of Norway. Further south after a relatively clear start frequent showers will pop up, possibly with thunder in the mix,generally concentrated over the south west, Wales and central England

The rain and showers will die out this evening leaving a clear night for most but by 0300 cloud and rain associated with the intense low to the south which is tracking north will already be effecting the south west with moderate rain by 0600

The low and associated front will continue to track north through Friday bringing a very wet day to all except N. Ireland and Scotland although the rain will arrive here through the evening, and becoming increasingly windy, particularly along the south coast. Heavy showers will follow in the wake of the front.

By midday Saturday the low is over Edinburgh with the occlusion draped down the spine of Scotland so overnight and through Saturday the moderate rain will be concentrated over the northern half of the country whilst remaining showery and very breezy further south

By Sunday the low and front have cleared to the north of Scotland so a day of Sunshine and showers some of which could coalesce along any troughs and become quite intense with thunder in the mix.

Another sunshine and showers day on Monday but the showers less frequent. And we are now entering the next amplification phase how this pans out is definitely of interest

 

Edited June 6, 2019 by knocker

[Djdazzle]

GFS 00z is the best run for quite a while. HP nudging in at T120 and sticking around for the whole run.

[knocker]

To continue very briefly with the gfs.

The weakening trough is quickly cleared out of the way as a high cell is developed, initially over the UK and then more broadly in the Atlantic. As this is contrary to any previous indications I will just post a couple of charts and await further info.

 

Edited June 6, 2019 by knocker

[Guest]

Morning, did I fall asleep for a week and wake up with summer just around the corner? Where has GFS pulled that one out from, high pressure nudging in from the southwest around t144 and hanging around a while, not massively warm given the orientation of the high but a huge improvement, ICON & GEM follow suit too. Big ECM needed this morning. 

One word of caution, despite some apparent agreement it’s easily the sort of pattern that can still get squeezed and with heights over Greenland remaining relatively high our extension of the Azores couldn’t easily regress northwestwards. 

Overall thought a massive improvement.

[northwestsnow]

Well well well...

I did mention GEM last night !!!

UKM and GFS 00z follow it with lovely runs this morning..

If EC follows we might have a dramatic turnaround on our hands..!!

[knocker]

The GEFS follows a similar theme

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

The GEFS follows a similar theme

Now that is good news, looks pretty nice for those wanting summer ..

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Now that is good news, looks pretty nice for those wanting summer ..

I would hang fire on this until the ecm is on the table although I think things are on the up

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

I would hang fire on this until the ecm is on the table although I think things are on the up

Absolutely agreed..

You watch EC throw a spanner in the works..

[chris55]

Nice to see UKMO with the high pushing in at the end of the run

camping next weekend so been hoping for a shift in the pattern. Along with GFS there looks to be some hope.

ensembles also looking a little more compact and in agreement than of recent days, definite drying/warming trend.

 

 

[Sky Full]

After days of gloom and doom, some hope for June at last:

UKMO +144.                                                  GEM +156

   

GFS +156

Just waiting for the ECM to come out and hopefully show the same evolution but this is a definite move away from the entrenched low pressure domination we have been seeing recently.

However,  GFS (P) not on the same page - yet:

 

 

Edited June 6, 2019 by Sky Full