Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[MATTWOLVES 3]

19 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

And in saying all that...I will be up early in the morning and late at night doing it all again and that will probably go on for the rest of my life! 

Good post Mr frost.... I think I will be spending a little more time pursuing my main interest in future.... Namely Trainspotting..... Chin up young man, the NW looks to improve...

Just incase any was wondering.... I'm not really a trainspotter...

Edited June 4, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensemble mean T240:

Heights going right way, surface pressure  perhaps less so, maybe the low spread to our east is the main takeaway:

Suggests more of the 51 runs have a trough to the west and a ridge to the east.

Overall, I feel a nudge in the direction of summer tonight....we will see....

Edited June 4, 2019 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Good news folk, even though the mean is not great, the op was most definitely on the colder side of the ensembles. 

Edited June 4, 2019 by Mattwolves

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All , Northern Blocking is still the Key ingredient , in the output today as it as before and will be in the future...

[Nigerian Prince]

Well, not the start to June some people on here were imagining a few weeks ago, words like flaming June were commonly used on this forum, is more like cooling June. looking at the models for the next few days. The main problem northern blocking anticyclones that some people were dreaming of seeing in the Winter months, (dreams come true lol) have now arrived with vengeance since May. In fact, there has been a lack of anticyclonic development to our North  for a while,. unfortunately experience shows that once this pattern persist it is very hard to change, lets hope we get out of this pattern by mid July, otherwise baring a few warm /hot days, the summer of 2019 might only be a success for potato growers, or umbrella sellers.

Gender Male. Location Battersea London.

[knocker]

At first glance there is not that much agreement between this evening's NOAA and the EPS mean anomaly in the 5-10 range. But on further reflection, but within the broad parameters, perhaps they are not that much different. They both appear to be keen on retaining the Greenland block whilst promoting a weak Atlantic  trough beneath. Whilst at the same time in the eastern Atlantic the dissipating of the trough is well underway but precisely how this is achieved is the major source of disagreement Specifically the position of the ridge

Having said that they are broadly speaking in the same ball park in the ext period.with a not particularly strong WSW upper flow over the UK, But the EPS has undergone some changes in the last three days so I'm keeping an open mind on this

Edited June 4, 2019 by knocker

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, danm said:

The weather in this country can sometimes get stuck in a rut. We’re day one into an unsettled spell (yesterday was still dry, sunny and quite warm (here at least). How long will this spell last? 7 days? 10 days? Who knows. It will be at least a week. After that, whilst the models aren’t showing any prolonged settled weather at the moment, things can and do change quite quickly so nothing should be written off, even a significant warm up. 

Just as last summer was unusual in how widespread and lengthy the hot spell was, 2007 & 2012 were very unusual in how cool and wet it was. If we’re expecting a more typical, average UK summer (which you would by default), then weeks and weeks of cool and unsettled weather is unlikely. It was only 2 days ago that we had 27c and warm sunshine for some, so despite uninspiring model runs, it’s worth remembering that we’ve only just started this unsettled spell.

Let it run its course over the next 7 days and then see where we are by the weekend, rather than a couple of members writing off the rest of June or the rest of the summer. 

Its day 7 of an unsettled spell here, with barely a chink of sunshine and instead copious rainfall.. and temperatures getting no higher than 17 degree and that was for about 2 hours only on Sunday, indeed it was 11 degrees at 5pm this evening.. alas not a good outlook for the foreseeable, Ensembles appear to suggest heights remaining strong to the NW, which will prevent the azores high from nosing NE anytime soon. In the meantime, cyclonic in a word, cool for all, lots of rain - very poor.

Edited June 4, 2019 by damianslaw

[tinybill]

8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Its day 7 of an unsettled spell here, with barely a chink of sunshine and instead copious rainfall.. and temperatures getting no higher than 17 degree and that was for about 2 hours only on Sunday, indeed it was 11 degrees at 5pm this evening.. alas not a good outlook for the foreseeable, Ensembles appear to suggest heights remaining strong to the NW, which will prevent the azores high from nosing NE anytime soon. In the meantime, cyclonic in a word, cool for all, lots of rain - very poor.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

just looked at this as  you said  the outlook  not looking very good

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

and looking  deeper its still looking horrible !! but nice  for  ducks

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

26 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

1990 had a pretty poor June, and had a very good rest summer.

1995 had an especially cool first 20 days, then had an amazing rest of summer.

it amazes me how the rest of June, let alone summer, is being written off.

I think the whole pattern is set against any real lengthy summer weather setting in for this summer.  I think take the short hot spells and run is the order.  Very early indeed but the patterns do seem to set in.

An incredibly autumnal spell to come over the coming days, very unusual set up indeed.... 

BFTP

Edited June 4, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mapantz]

So much drivel being posted in here this evening. It needs to stop.

This isn't the place for talking about previous years Summer's, there's the chats/moans/banter thread for that. Keep it to model discussion, please.

Thanks.

[StormChaseUK]

Heavens sideways on a bike never seen anything like it.

Low Pressure is not near the UK

UK is the low pressure ! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yet again GFS looks o so different at similar time frames, tonight it's bringing much warmer conditions by day 8. Firstly the chart from last night.. 

Its finishing on a positive note... But let's face it the 18z always does... Don't ya just love it.. 

Edited June 4, 2019 by Mattwolves

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

@Mattwolves I don't know how you keep up in hear lol why are people writing summer off already? It's the 5th of June yes you heard me the 5th. Not really looked at the models today trying to have a break. But by the sounds in here summers over. Just think any newcomers looking at the forum will think my god what is happening. Take a step back and think it could be worse. By this time next week it will be all different. Trust me night and peace and happiness all my netweather buddy's. 

[northwestsnow]

18Z ens utterly divided on the way forward next week.

Quite a large number suggesting some kind of continental feed, but no confidence  whatsoever..

[knocker]

Outlook - There is enough going on under the umbrella of the upper trough over next few days to concentrate the mind. And, from a meteorological perspective, not without interest

The NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 WV sat image which neatly encapsulates the current situation

.

The small low on the occlusion that is causing all the rain over N. Ireland and Scotland at the moment will tend to hang around through the day. Albeit  the rain will start to fragment as it runs around the circulation, although the movement does adversely effect N. Ireland which could remain quite wet through the afternoon. Elsewhere it should not be a bad day with some showers in the south west but a further possible complication is a low forming on the old cold front over Germany, which is quite thundery, which edges it back towards the south east so showery outbreaks cannot be ruled out here

The rain will tend to die out over Scotland overnight but continue to effect N. Ireland and as the wave over Germany starts to move north more showery activity along the North Sea coast is distinctly possible

Thursday will be a day of heavy showers and sunshine with the showers tending to be more concentrated in northern and western areas and to the east the thundery low is tracking up the North Sea and this activity might just clip north east Scotland

Over Thursday night and through Friday another low forms in the base of the upper trough and tracks north across Biscay to bring some very wet and quite windy weather to the country on Friday and consequently not that warm. The North Sea low is now NW of Scotland

The low is just off the east coast of Scotland by midday Saturday so still a fair bit of rain around in the north and quite breezy with showers further south

The showery activity will continue on Sunday with still some more persistent rain in the north at first as the low continues it's journey north. But yet another disturbance has developed in the base of the trough which is now quite elongated, courtesy of movement to the west, and this may well track north east to bring more continuous rain to the south west later in the afternoon.

Edited June 5, 2019 by knocker

[Guest]

Well again the pub run living up to it’s name last night giving a little hope only to firmly remove it this morning. Gfs 00z builds a crazy strong summer Greeny high exceeding a 1050mb at times leaving the anchored under the cold for the entire run

[knocker]

Through next week the gfs has a strong TPV over norther Russia with the subtropical high zones amplifying in such a manner as to enclose the upper trough over the UK whilst forming a high cell over northern Canada. Ergo a continuation of showery activity and sunny intervals and quite cool. Not of course a done deal

[Guest]

Some good news, the GFS Ops run post about the 10th was firmly anchored in the bottom quartile of the ensemble suite, over to you ECM.

[Polar Maritime]

A few posts have had to go, Please use the Summer thread for general chat away from model output.

Thanks please continue.

 

[mb018538]

ECM is cack yet again today.



This chart telling you everything that has been wrong with late spring and early summer thus far. Never seen anything as persistent as this in all my time of model watching to be honest, it's just depressingly bad.

[knocker]

In many ways the ecm five day anomaly is not dissimilar to the gfs which portends continuing with slack low pressure over the UK One can't help wondering if this is where Exeter are coming from with the trough eventually forced south as high pressure becomes more influential in the north. And the detail over the weekend is not a done deal as yet with the movement of the low being quite important

Edited June 5, 2019 by knocker

[Methuselah]

This morning's GFS 00Z seems to be 'losing its way', as the PV remnants simply don't want to play by the rules; I for one am now looking forward to when the Atlantic hurricane season shakes things up a bit:

 

And our old friend the FV3 is also pretty bereft as far as meaningful, sustainable improvement goes:

And, as can be readily seen from the ensembles, FI starts around June 12th -13th:

[mountain shadow]

49 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is cack yet again today.



This chart telling you everything that has been wrong with late spring and early summer thus far. Never seen anything as persistent as this in all my time of model watching to be honest, it's just depressingly bad.

The ECM run today is horrendous with the 5 degree 850 isotherm hardly making an appearance and with the UK continually on the boundary between warmer continental air and cooler maritime air it's going to be wet.

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

Well the ECM is still keen on an Atlantic blocking high which moves closer to the UK & Ireland next week (1020-1025mb), so western & northern areas especially settling down for 2 or 3 days short but better than nothing, no heatwave but feeling pleasant in the strong June sunshine, however low pressure remains on the near continent so the east could stay rather mixed at times 

Edited June 5, 2019 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[johnholmes]

And the EC 500 mb anomaly flips again

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

stick with the NOAA version and its 8-14 chart for the most likely upper air pattern for the next 1 to 2 weeks in my view

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

So mostly a changeable outlook, that does not exclude one day here and there with dry and somewhat more summery weather for many!