Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

ECM still looks promising for next week with a nice build of high pressure keeping the low firmly to the south for a time so should see a decent 3 or 4 days of strong June sunshine something to look forward to fingers crossed

Edited June 4, 2019 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[danm]

I think some people on here just need to accept that the next 7 days is going to be cool and unsettled. A wet weekend? Yes. Not going to substantially change now. 

Anything from next week onwards is up for grabs. People writing off the next 3 weeks are foolish. 

Edited June 4, 2019 by danm

[Guest]

Just some quick pattern analysis to add to the doom and gloom ️ Of all the Junes since 1957 that have seen more than 60mm of rain at Bournemouth Hurn (happened 24 times - and 60mm forecast in the next few days here, hence the comparison) only really 1983 (tenth wettest June, 94mm) stands out as a year that had a back loaded summer. All the usual suspects of dreadful summers 2007,2011,2012,1963 etc had wet June’s. You have to come down to 50mm to get to the next decent summers where 1990 & 2003 are joint. No surprises the driest June’s all coincided with the three hottest summers 1976, 1995 & 2018.

[johnholmes]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Just some quick pattern analysis to add to the doom and gloom ️ Of all the Junes since 1957 that have seen more than 60mm of rain at Bournemouth Hurn (happened 24 times - and 60mm forecast in the next few days here, hence the comparison) only really 1983 (tenth wettest June, 94mm) stands out as a year that had a back loaded summer. All the usual suspects of dreadful summers 2007,2011,2012,1963 etc had wet June’s. You have to come down to 50mm to get to the next decent summers where 1990 & 2003 are joint. No surprises the driest June’s all coincided with the three hottest summers 1976, 1995 & 2018.

Although, if you do get the rain predicted. it does seem to show a connection this may not be so. Beyond me nowadays but you need to do a statistical correlation on the data to see if it is statistically significant.

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Not happy with the charts this morning? Do you wish a miracle would occur?

For the warm and settled spell enthusiasts, I unleash apon you the GEM 00Z at 204 to 240 hours!

The 850 hPa temperatures at 240 hours:

Just for a bit of fun and to brighten the mood up in here a little! The Mid-Atlantic/Azores High ridge building over the U.K from the South-West, bringing some settled and warmer weather (especially in the West sheltered by the slack North-Easterly flow and in sunny spells). 

From what some have suggested, the behaviour of the trough and the Low Pressure this week affecting what could happen next week. Certainly ideal for Low Pressure to not hang about over us for too long, as it could then hold up the attempts from the Mid Atlantic and/or Azores ridging to push over us from the West/South-West. And maybe allow further Lows to the West/North-West of the ridging to quickly squeeze through and become attracted to the UK troughing like a bunch of bees pollinating flowers!  Plus, as someone else mentioned, don’t want High Pressure building too far North-West as it could send Lows on a Southerly trajectory and possibly continue to have the UK’s name on it. This being applicable again, if you’re someone wanting some warm/hot and settled weather, and you don’t want the U.K. raided by Lows. (Though, to be fair, having Greenland Highs doesn’t always mean it’s going to be cool and unsettled over the U.K. Particularly in negative Western Based North Atlantic Oscillation setups with attempts for High Pressure to build close by to us over Mainland Europe).  

 

Remember also it is not the surface feature that is originating the pattern but the upper air. Until that changes significantly then further surface systems are likely to develop in the bottom area of the trough.

The NOAA 500 mb prediction holds out not much hope especially in the 6-10 day period. Perhaps some, not much, in the issue last evening for 8-14 days.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

If we look at the ECMWF-GFS 6-10 then more so, that is IF the EC idea truns out to be correct. So we have 2 modle outputs that suggest not much change and one this morning that does. Personally I almost always believe the NOAA output more than the other two. That is especially true if they are not consistent with themselves over at least 3 days. 24 hours ago the ridging was further west giving a flow N of W into the UK. The idea of the cut off upper low is feasible but I would want to see the other two o the same way and with ridges and troughs in similar positions, and for at least 2-3 days.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Although, if you do get the rain predicted. it does seem to show a connection this may not be so. Beyond me nowadays but you need to do a statistical correlation on the data to see if it is statistically significant.

Yes off course, there’s that big caveat if the rain occurs. Was a little surprised the data set came out with such a clear trend, usually they don’t. 

[knocker]

The low pressure causing all of today's problems will track north east during this evening and overnight and the main rain belt will go with it around the circulation.Thus a wet evening for western and northern areas v but becoming more concentrated over N. Ireland and central/northern Scotland after midnight. Still some showery activity over England and Wales during the evening but tending to die out later. Perhaps some sneaking into the SW and SE

Note

A clearance down here in the last 30 minutes

Edited June 4, 2019 by knocker

[BlueHedgehog074]

58 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Remember also it is not the surface feature that is originating the pattern but the upper air. Until that changes significantly then further surface systems are likely to develop in the bottom area of the trough.

The NOAA 500 mb prediction holds out not much hope especially in the 6-10 day period. Perhaps some, not much, in the issue last evening for 8-14 days.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

If we look at the ECMWF-GFS 6-10 then more so, that is IF the EC idea truns out to be correct. So we have 2 modle outputs that suggest not much change and one this morning that does. Personally I almost always believe the NOAA output more than the other two. That is especially true if they are not consistent with themselves over at least 3 days. 24 hours ago the ridging was further west giving a flow N of W into the UK. The idea of the cut off upper low is feasible but I would want to see the other two o the same way and with ridges and troughs in similar positions, and for at least 2-3 days.

Indeed, they can be very handy those NOAA anomaly charts. A good general idea where we could head in. It perhaps is easy to forget (or at least for some of us), that it’s about the wider pattern and just reminding ourselves that it is the upper features that controls the surface features. 

While it’s the case that it’s never a good idea to keep getting hung up on the individual operational model runs, it’s something I can still be guilty of on occasions. Comparing the 12Z runs with each other, and the 00Z runs with each other, (such as today’s 12Z GFS with yesterday's 12Z GFS), is a great method you've talked about before for seeing how the runs have developed and, like with the anomaly charts, seeing the sort of direction things may head in. 

Edited June 4, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine
Adding some more stuff to post

[Alexis]

26 minutes ago, knocker said:

The low pressure causing all of today's problems will track north east during this evening and overnight and the main rain belt will go with it around the circulation.Thus a wet evening for western and northern areas v but becoming more concentrated over N. Ireland and central/northern Scotland after midnight. Still some showery activity over England and Wales during the evening but tending to die out later. Perhaps some sneaking into the SW and SE

Note

A clearance down here in the last 30 minutes

The BBC forecasts look like that and then you look at the radar and see they look absolutely nothing like each other!

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

6 minutes ago, Alexis said:

The BBC forecasts look like that and then you look at the radar and see they look absolutely nothing like each other!

The latest radar..... A good clearance across southwest England and brighter skies are pushing in here to South Wales after some torrential downpours earlier on the back edge of the rain. Thunderstorms on the continent 

Edited June 4, 2019 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[Methuselah]

Well, well, well...it's been raining at last! And more to come, if the 12Z is right:

 

Now, however, it's time to look forward the next week's improvement!

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 144 - looks to be going down the less troughy route ala EC..

GFS 144 is a horror show..

[northwestsnow]

Well, if you like rain, you have hit the jackpot with GFS 

There is days and days and more days of it, i'm not buying it, EC will side with UKMO imo..

[northwestsnow]

GFS is fascinating , not my cup of tea but just look at the heat across SE/central Europe!!

40 degrees in parts of Italy and high 30's across the Balkans, the heat extends north east towards Poland/Belarus -

I wonder if thats approaching record breaking heat for the time of year in some of these countries..

[StormChaseUK]

I think it's improving by the looks of it,  warming up from 11c to as much as 15c into late June 

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well, if you like rain, you have hit the jackpot with GFS 

There is days and days and more days of it, i'm not buying it, EC will side with UKMO imo..

I'm not buying it either NWS, it seems content to plant one low after another over us. I thought the general consensus was to build heights to our NW with a more settled period further North, GFS is not going down that route at all.... Await the ECM with trepidation... 

[Methuselah]

31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 144 - looks to be going down the less troughy route ala EC..

GFS 144 is a horror show..

Not to worry, NWS -- you have a grolly stuck to your screen!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

This from icon looks closer to the mark for me, and I'm hoping the ECM builds on this ridge from the SW beyond 7/8 days. 

[Guest]

No sign of this warm up / dry out in GFS, absolute 2007 run from the 12z, probably the worst so far. 

I really wish I hadn’t look up with correlation between wet June’s and the rest of summer! Head is in meltdown.....

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

No sign of this warm up / dry out in GFS, absolute 2007 run from the 12z, probably the worst so far. 

I really wish I hadn’t look up with correlation between wet June’s and the rest of summer! Head is in meltdown.....

Perhaps your placing to much emphasis on the GFS! This happens in winter, when the GFS is given far to much credence, when it's infact the ECM that beats it hands down. Icon looks like improving things, I have a feeling ECM will be also. 

[Methuselah]

End of the GFS doesn't look all that great; even Chris Grayling would struggle to call that run 'great'!

 

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Perhaps your placing to much emphasis on the GFS! This happens in winter, when the GFS is given far to much credence, when it's infact the ECM that beats it hands down. Icon looks like improving things, I have a feeling ECM will be also. 

Not at placing all my eggs in the same basket, ECM keeps flip-flopping as much as the others when it comes to extreme reaches of the output. Until the trending is there within a reliable timeframe I’m sticking unsettled as the default pattern given how difficult it is to breakdown the blocking mechanisms that are driving the current conditions.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

No sign of summer in the 12z from GFS, in fact its a real echo of June of 2007/12- This weekends LP just leaves a green blob of snot hanging stuck right over the UK for days , even in the late stages of the run its a complete low pressure fest with the Azores held tightly away out of reach. It would have to take something really dramatic to happen to get back the 2018 pattern if we were to have a summer like last year.

[Mike Poole]

I think the 12s so far just nightlight uncertainty that is yet to be resolved.  The GEM the pick of them:

 

We know in winter the models struggle in the vicinity of the UK when northern blocking is on the cards (it doesn't win out on this run).  And the models perform worse over the northern hemisphere in the summer than winter - so I think the fallout over the stratospheric final warming is making the models really struggle.

 

Edited June 4, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

This, from the FV3, looks better than what we have now: at least the trough is far enough west to put the UK in a generally southerly airstream? It is the FV3 though!