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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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We're into the first week of summer, so now's a good time for a fresh model thread. 

As ever, please keep it friendly & about the models in here!

Alternative Threads:
To chat more generally about the summer weather please head to the summer thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91676-summer-2019-moans-ramps-chat-etc/

And to post tweets about the models (although you're still welcome to use the Model Output Discussion thread), please see this thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/87130-model-tweets/

For the Met Office outlooks, please use this one:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
GFS
GFS FV3 (Parallel)
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met Office (UKMO)
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Golbal Jetstream
Stratosphere

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Ingredients for high pressure to build across NW Europe and at least S half of UK:

Eastward MJO propagation to Pacific - looks to happen by about a week from now.

Rising AAM - looks to happen in accordance with the above; rising during middle third of month.

 

So, any charts showing such a settling down for the UK via HP from the SW/S 10th June onward should be given more credence than those which don’t.

Before that, effects of the MJO crossing the Pacific look to set up an Arctic dipole for a time (HP N American side, LP other) while the jet aligns such as to guide LPs across the UK. These look weak but slow-moving - a recipe for some big rainfall totals in places, mainly Fri-Sun. Hopefully those places will be the ones that could do with the watering!

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If GFS 00z was close we'll be having flooding issues in northern England with these totals

138-777UK.thumb.gif.7836a2b1b056ef72f7566cb4f0c696de.gif192-777UK.thumb.gif.5b980505d302851f96630f159cdb4b73.gif240-777UK.thumb.gif.ba962eac2db741ff733304567d96dfb8.gif

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One to keep an eye-on for later this week?

image.thumb.png.22e2e9d21979ca415e4cdcf10f566243.pngimage.thumb.png.40ce2fac314da8c90c4e9b002be0cb9e.pngimage.thumb.png.2d2fcf729c1497d28dea1398d9cb26c3.png 

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14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

If GFS 00z was close we'll be having flooding issues in northern England with these totals

138-777UK.thumb.gif.7836a2b1b056ef72f7566cb4f0c696de.gif192-777UK.thumb.gif.5b980505d302851f96630f159cdb4b73.gif240-777UK.thumb.gif.ba962eac2db741ff733304567d96dfb8.gif

Looks very wet in hilly northern areas.Yuk!

I'm not covinced by the 00z operational's - suffice to say i'm not impressed either.

Let's see what the 12z's come up with, hopefully an improvement towards day 9/10!

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Longer term the Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows signs of improvement with the azores ridge trying to nose in and temperatures on the rise, certainly much better at day 10 compared to the operational.

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-240.gif

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The FV3 bringing much warmer conditions into the SE with improving conditions, note that at this time frame, it wasn't showing on the 0z run. 

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-1-234.png

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Gfs blowing up another huge Griceland high on the 6z. Seriously, just get lost! Summer staying on hold until it disappears.

ECM clusters favouring this too, so it looks like we’re going to be left in no mans land for a while yet. The signal keeps weakening, then getting stronger again as the days progress.

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Well it’s hard so see where the warm up is going to come isn’t it? Blocking in all the wrong places and the GFS 06z Ops run is just dire. Things can turn very quickly and while some places could do with some rain some of the output is getting into concerning territory not just because it’s awful and waste of summer but because there could be a real flood risk, it’s quite easy for these stagnant lows to ingest moisture and just dump it over the same places over and over again....

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Interesting 06Z evolution: the 'signals' seem to change rather a lot, run to run:

image.thumb.png.bf7bb473c1fd6afd606f2989bf3bd799.pngimage.thumb.png.63eb3a8f83278de8894a487ccebb7cf0.png Bogey at ten o'clock! :oldgrin:

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I was kind of hoping the new thread would bring renewed optimism, renewed hope, more positivity, and better charts... It appears I was wrong on all counts..... 😜

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

I was kind of hoping the new thread would bring renewed optimism, renewed hope, more positivity, and better charts... It appears I was wrong on all counts..... 😜

Well to be frank it probably would have if the GFS 06z run had been one of the worst runs so far.....

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Glad I stopped looking after the 00z run lol 

If you want summer in 2019  Google "cheap flights to Spain" 🙂 

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Posted (edited)

It seems as if, whenever the big-nasty-blob-of-Arctic-filth looks like finally giving-up the ghost, the input data changes?

image.thumb.png.7e818750b7be6c43793301d65a78d350.pngimage.thumb.png.9419e46a2e9c37f87014973497b98286.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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EC clusters this morning still see us troubled by a deep trough by mid-month, but the location far from certain and with opportunities for it to be S/W enough to allow hot continental air to drift towards us (though this is one of a few options).

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019060300_288.

Chances of thundery weather by mid-month likely to be above average??

 

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I think that the first part of June is increasingly looking a little disappointing. I wouldn't say write off by any means.. And let's not forget there still has to be a decent chance of recovery for the 2nd half, or even the final 3rd. We also have July and August to play for, the possibility of a back loaded summer will also be a possibility. Maybe we shouldn't be quite so stressed at such an early stage! I do feel however that some are perhaps guilty of raising there expectation levels a tad to high, and more so after last year's historic event! A typical British summer wouldn't float many folks boats, but it's something that is likely. Mixed conditions, punctuated with warmer settled conditions. And let's not forget there is always the hope of an Indian summer if all else fails... Anything is possible... If this fails as well, there are plenty of cheap package holidays abroad 😉This post is in no way having a go at folk, it's more of a, perhaps we need to lower our expectations a tad post... All is not lost good people of Netweather.... Plenty more wind left in the sails just yet. 👍

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46 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Gfs blowing up another huge Griceland high on the 6z. Seriously, just get lost! Summer staying on hold until it disappears.

ECM clusters favouring this too, so it looks like we’re going to be left in no mans land for a while yet. The signal keeps weakening, then getting stronger again as the days progress.

Don't worry, it will do one once we head into Autumn/Winter

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34 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well it’s hard so see where the warm up is going to come isn’t it? Blocking in all the wrong places and the GFS 06z Ops run is just dire. Things can turn very quickly and while some places could do with some rain some of the output is getting into concerning territory not just because it’s awful and waste of summer but because there could be a real flood risk, it’s quite easy for these stagnant lows to ingest moisture and just dump it over the same places over and over again....

Not really. It’s quite clear it’s going to come from the southeast. The continent remains warm or hot throughout with how much the UK sees governed by circulation around any slipping lows.

It’s the kind of setup that could bring big swings in temperatures depending on whether we are sat under a soaked low or in sunny spells and slack winds. More typical of April and May must be said.

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I have to say I completely disagree, nothing is really clear apart from the fact the UK is under the influence of upper level trough that really has nowhere to go as it becoming locked in by that blasted Greeny high and his unwelcome friend over in western Russia. Any warm from south east would only be a brief incursion into the south east as low pressure would always be sat too close for comfort of the south west. 

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The GEFS 06Z ensembles:

image.thumb.png.5f92f833c33b7b01673814483d0786e4.pngimage.thumb.png.12eddee179ec18ab452d8f5cd46ac2e8.png 

image.thumb.png.b994abdba292ee6e22838faad301fd55.pngimage.thumb.png.692d35f92ca69fa8bcc5b6f2cf578d93.png

Rain is once again predicted. Though, the way things have gone recently, it remains to be seen...

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1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Well to be frank it probably would have if the GFS 06z run had been one of the worst runs so far.....

Its also pretty much the worse case scenario on the 6z GEFS..

Always worth viewing ens before getting too depressed!

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 I have to say i peruse the models every day and have never (well once or twice) felt compelled to post but i have never felt so depressed by all the model outputs as recently. It seems to me that the whole of Europe both north and south will enjoy lovely Summer heat over the next two weeks ! Except the UK - which appears to have continuous low pressure over it. Murk and rain. Summer is my favourite season but ....please can someone give me some encouragement please...

Love to read all the expert posts (especially Knockers) 

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Posted (edited)

As Tamara alluded to yesterday, i think we need to see some improvement in the EC operational runs in particular , the 00z run looked an outlier against the suite but this is beginning to cause a little discomfort now.

As it happens i'm away to Warsaw Poland for a few days early next week, they are benefiting from 'our' trough at the moment and temps will likely be in the mid to high 20's when i'm there..(as they have been for a while).

At the moment Exeter persist with the drier theme mid month but now suggesting lows to the south and cooler in the north towards the end of the month- which suggests to me some kind of blocking highs to our North west.

 

Edited by northwestsnow

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