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Roger J Smith

Summer forecast for 2019 -- cool start, warm finish

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Posted (edited)

Here's a summary of how my research indicates the summer of 2019 may turn out. 

June is likely to be a rather cool month especially the first half. Mean temperatures 13-15 from north to south (CET around 14). Rainfall near normal to somewhat above normal in parts of the north.

July will see gradual improvement from near normal most of the month to some hot weather near the end. It may be relatively dry but with a few isolated heavy storms. Average temps will be in the 15 to 18 range north to south (CET around 17).

August seems likely to be the warmest month of this summer (for a change). Since 2003-04, there has not been a notably warm August so we (you actually) are overdue. (I am not, last August here was steamy). Expect average temperatures in the 16 to 20 C range north to south (CET around 18). It may be quite variable for rainfall amounts depending on where heavy storms hit, most likely to be in the midlands. 

September is technically autumn (in climate and weather), but  summer extends into September and so does the warmest quarter of the year, which is roughly 12 June-12 Sep. So for the first half of September I foresee the August heat continuing in modified form and this may linger even towards early October 2011 style. 

Scotland will be chilly for the first half of the summer season and near to slightly above average from mid-July on, with near normal to 50% above normal rainfall amounts in general. 

I am expecting a rather above average tropical storm/hurricane season with perhaps 17 named storms of which 12 become hurricanes and 4 attain major status. The weather in North America seems likely to be hotter than normal almost all summer which often leads to a very active September tropical outbreak. 

Post your summer forecasts in this thread and we can compare notes before, during and after. 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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Posted (edited)

I posted my predictions for London in another thread, but here they are.

June: 20c/10c, 25mm, 180 hrs sun

July: 24c/14c, 40mm, 215 hrs sun

August: 21c/12c, 80mm, 160 hrs sun.

June will be cool, dry and on the cloudy side. July will be very average, and then we will have yet another shocker August, as we can't buy a good one these days (2016 was the sunniest since 2005, but with 201 hours it was still cloudier than normal).

 

I'd love to be proven wrong but I just have a bad feeling we will end up with the above dross. 

Edited by B87

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I find it odd that the two intervals with the worst Augusts relative to July are (a) the quite cool years from about 1870 to 1930 and (b) the very warm years since 2004.

Anyone see any logical reason why these two contrasting climate periods should both do poorly in August? 

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9 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

I find it odd that the two intervals with the worst Augusts relative to July are (a) the quite cool years from about 1870 to 1930 and (b) the very warm years since 2004.

Anyone see any logical reason why these two contrasting climate periods should both do poorly in August? 

Thanks Roger.  The only bit I don’t like is the possibility of the August heat continuing through September!

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