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Tom Lynch

Tour 2 chase day 5 Oklahoma potential High risk

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What an absolutely incredible 6 hours of streaming. Felt like I was actually there. I’ve seen a good 4-5 tornadoes! The best one being that Mangum beast, my word, what a belter. Thankfully, the town looks to have escaped the worst. 

Need to go to bed, but my heart is telling me otherwise. Might have some explaining to do to the boss tomorrow 😆

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8 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

What an absolutely incredible 6 hours of streaming. Felt like I was actually there. I’ve seen a good 4-5 tornadoes! The best one being that Mangum beast, my word, what a belter. Thankfully, the town looks to have escaped the worst. 

Need to go to bed, but my heart is telling me otherwise. Might have some explaining to do to the boss tomorrow 😆

haha awesome 🙂 night!

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Yep a couple of cells just hitting 40kft - if this takes hold then I think OKC is in its sights

image.thumb.png.d95011edca6d7b45e4596f5e4cdbeb3b.png

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4 minutes ago, samadamsuk said:

Yep a couple of cells just hitting 40kft - if this takes hold then I think OKC is in its sights

 

Here's your cell, building nicely 

Screenshot_20190521_001903_com.basevelocity.radarscope.jpg

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5 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Here's your cell, building nicely  

Screenshot_20190521_001903_com.basevelocity.radarscope.jpg

wow, yep - that's looking healthy. hope it holds together!

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Been watching OKC weather streaming, to the north of the warm front temperatures are struggling to make double figures Celsius, actually pushing the warm front back south. Could limit the activity in the north of the PDS box.

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1 minute ago, fujita5 said:

Been watching OKC weather streaming, to the north of the warm front temperatures are struggling to make double figures Celsius, actually pushing the warm front back south. Could limit the activity in the north of the PDS box.

Yes. I was just watching that myself. Flooding looks to be the major problem at the moment.

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Interesting night. Clearly a technical bust for the high-res models as the free warm sector failed to clear of cloud in time and also failed with the impressive push of cold air from the NW. 

Another example of how the weather can challenge the best of us (SPC high risk) but it works both ways and a slight risk will come along again that spawns a monster.

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Close-up of the Magnum, OK tornado yesterday - some bad language though

Unfortunately damaged some property

Thankfully no fatalities or serious injuries on what was SPC High Risk Day.

Over-hyped High Risk? Well, it could have been a lot worse given the unusual situation of extreme wind shear and extreme instability forecast - but it appears some short-range models like the HRRR didn't perform too well and were a little too keen to develop numerous tornadic supercells over central Oklahoma than actually occurred - when obviously the warm sector atmosphere was more stable, apparently maybe because of weaker lapse rates created by stubborn cloud cover from early storms clearing north, so wasn't really a tornado outbreak in the high risk area across Oklahoma in the end, though NW Texas did see a fair few tornadoes drop - where the airmass was a lot more unstable near the dryline - thanks to good cloud clearance early on to allow maximum heating.

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Posted (edited)

Obviously good news that it was a bust for the majority of people in the warning areas. 

Bad news for me however as I was really excited about witnessing a EF4/EF5 tornado on the live streams - I even lied to my girlfriend about having a sore head so I could sleep in our spare room! 😂 (I was poised from midnight - IPAD and phone, excitement building with the thought of a big tornado outbreak with strong and long tracked tornadoes...stayed up until 5am for nothing!)

Had to leave for work at 7:30am...now sitting at my desk feeling very tired/sleepy!

What did I learn? Never assume a high risk possibility of a tornado outbreak will deliver the goods! 

Will I stay up late and do it all again next time? You bet I will! 😀

See you all for the next chase - until then it’s back to watching the old classics.🌪🌪🌪

 

Edited by Mr Frost

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'The old classics'!?!  - that Jarrell tornado was horrendous, wiped out entire families in a small community as well as spearing numerous cows to death from straw...

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storm reports

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/190520_rpts.html

yesterday_filtered.gif

23/24 tornado reports

some of the comments, PERRY NOBLE OK HOMES AND TREES DAMAGED.  MINDENMINES BARTON MO TORNADO WENT THROUGH AREA CAUSING HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE ALONG WITH POWER LINES DOWN. 

DICKENS DICKENS TX LARGE RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADO    TREES BLOWN DOWN AT CR371 AND HW82  OKMULGEE OK EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A TORNADO. DEBRIS WAS OBSERVED IN THE ASSOCIATED RADAR DATA.    POTTAWATOMIE OK CAMPER FLIPPED OVER ... HOME DAMAGED ... TREES DAMAGED.

 

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Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

'The old classics'!?!  - that Jarrell tornado was horrendous, wiped out entire families in a small community as well as spearing numerous cows to death from straw...

It quite literally disintegrated an entire neighbourhood, without a doubt the most severe tornado damage ever recorded.

The slow forward speed of the tornado is usually mentioned as a factor of why the damage was so intense, but still, a true monster 

Edited by ChezWeather

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1 Tornado for the team should have been 2 really but never connected to the Paducah storm until it rolled east of Childress due to the river crossing at Quanah. Then the fun began with the chasers yokels, yahoos, every single person in Oklahoma it seemed with some appalling driving going on and not just from chasers from the scientific people around those storms from the DOWS to Texas Tech University.

That will be the last HIGH Risk I will chase in Oklahoma ever again and on other days we will go for the secondary target and leave the mess in Okie

We did get the Mangum Tornado but really should have been next to it in a field and not 6 miles south of it.

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The day didn't pan out as predicted and the tornado count not as great as anticipated. We saw one but from a distance because the roads were clogged with chasers , it was one long long long traffic jam. So apart from having a collision with a deer we are fine, however my van sustained some damage, but will live to fight another day. Spent the night in Witchita Falls , Texas. Looking to head towards Kansas today but need to take care with the flooding. Paul took a brief photo. I am sure the guests go better. 

 

Mangum.jpg

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16 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

1 Tornado for the team should have been 2 really but never connected to the Paducah storm until it rolled east of Childress due to the river crossing at Quanah. Then the fun began with the chasers yokels, yahoos, every single person in Oklahoma it seemed with some appalling driving going on and not just from chasers from the scientific people around those storms from the DOWS to Texas Tech University.

That will be the last HIGH Risk I will chase in Oklahoma ever again and on other days we will go for the secondary target and leave the mess in Okie

We did get the Mangum Tornado but really should have been next to it in a field and not 6 miles south of it.

Must have been sickening to get caught in that traffic.  It was mentioned numerous times on live streams and various weather channels.

Did you cross the warm front from north to south at any point?  Reports were that car windscreens were steaming up instantly, such was the difference in temperature across the narrow frontal zone.  This apparently also added to the traffic chaos as some drivers had to just stop in the middle of the road as they instantly became unable to see.

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24 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

1 Tornado for the team should have been 2 really but never connected to the Paducah storm until it rolled east of Childress due to the river crossing at Quanah. Then the fun began with the chasers yokels, yahoos, every single person in Oklahoma it seemed with some appalling driving going on and not just from chasers from the scientific people around those storms from the DOWS to Texas Tech University.

That will be the last HIGH Risk I will chase in Oklahoma ever again and on other days we will go for the secondary target and leave the mess in Okie

We did get the Mangum Tornado but really should have been next to it in a field and not 6 miles south of it.

You're not the only one saying that, quite a number of chasers on Stormtrack saying they'll avoid big risks in Oklahoma. Sounds like a good move, not only to avoid the frustration, but for safety as well. Can you imagine if yesterday panned out as dangerously as it could have?

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Yh could have been mass casualties Nick

Re the misting up of the windows yes we came across this after leaving the Mangum Storm it quickly became undercut by the front and the look went from tornadic to outflow, we headed south towards Altus and went from 57f to 83f in the matter of 3 miles and the windows were instantly fogged up, one of the best I have seen in fact

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17 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

Must have been sickening to get caught in that traffic.  It was mentioned numerous times on live streams and various weather channels.

Did you cross the warm front from north to south at any point?  Reports were that car windscreens were steaming up instantly, such was the difference in temperature across the narrow frontal zone.  This apparently also added to the traffic chaos as some drivers had to just stop in the middle of the road as they instantly became unable to see.

It was amazing to cross from the cold air through the warm front the car steamed up instantaneously , in seconds.  If I could spell bizarre that is what it was.  As for the deer strike I have had to tape up my head light.    Tom

 

 

 

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The chaser convergence last night looked as bad as I’ve seen and OK moderate risk is well known for bringing the Yahoo brigade out in their hordes. I was on the Dodge City EF4 in 2016 and despite there only being one road N-S and hundreds of chase vehicles everyone behaved fairly sensibly (pull all the way off the road please!). Mind you that was a slight risk/OFB play and only the expert forecasters were on it in time 😉

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I was never really expecting much action in the open warm sector, but the fronts produced somewhat less robust storms than I would have thought likely from the guidance.

Most major tornado outbreaks seem to focus on the cold front when the dry line catches up to it (if far enough west to involve a dry line, that feature turns into a second cold front east of about central Missouri to Arkansas). At the risk of over-simplifying, about 70% of tornados are probably associated with the cold front-dry line combination and of the other 30%, about 20% would be in the vicinity of strong warm fronts slowly pushing north and the other 10% randomly scattered in the air mass. 

So from my perspective, if that was a bust (I suppose it was really more of a moderate risk outcome) then it was a case of a cold front that underperformed, and the main reason for that would seem to be that the front never quite aligned at a good angle to the upper winds, it was almost in line with them, so the wind shear was rather subtle except at some lower levels briefly which is why the storms cycled so quickly. Also the dry line, while statistically impressive, was a bit of a sloucher, it hung off to the west of Lubbock-Plainview almost all day before making a sporadic move east. And that was being held back by the dynamics of a rather poorly modelled surface heat low in southeast NM that prevented there being any real pressure gradient in the zone behind the front/dry line combination. All of these slight failures added up to downgrade what could have been a catastrophic outbreak into something less so, which I suppose is a good outcome for almost anyone but people reading these threads. 

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Nice summary Roger. In any science it’s the experience from mistakes that improves skill for future events. I too was watching the DL and once it delayed it’s eastward surge, and subsequent interaction with the W-E boundary, the risk was lowered. That and the relative failure of open warm sector convection where shear was maximised and a dangerous outbreak was averted.

And for the record I am one reader of this forum who would never ‘wish’ for a severe event such as what was modelled yesterday. Give me a discrete photogenic supercell in the open prairie of N Kansas anytime over a soupy clogged-up Oklahoma day.

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19 minutes ago, nsrobins said:

Nice summary Roger. In any science it’s the experience from mistakes that improves skill for future events. I too was watching the DL and once it delayed it’s eastward surge, and subsequent interaction with the W-E boundary, the risk was lowered. That and the relative failure of open warm sector convection where shear was maximised and a dangerous outbreak was averted.

And for the record I am one reader of this forum who would never ‘wish’ for a severe event such as what was modelled yesterday. Give me a discrete photogenic supercell in the open prairie of N Kansas anytime over a soupy clogged-up Oklahoma day.

I think people who wish for a severe weather event (like myself) only do so because we have the luxury of enjoying it from the other side of the world on our computers - we have a choice and no family/property at risk.

I then ask myself if I am paying to join a storm chasing tour and love extreme weather do I want to be in the path of a strong tornado. (EF3 +) Answer would be 100% yes but obviously from a safe distance. 

It must be the dream/top of the wish list of every professional storm chaser, paying guest and extreme weather enthusiast to witness a monster tornado - whether that be to collect data, warn people in advance or simply feel an insane adrenaline rush and achieve a life goal for a big passion/hobby that you love. 

 

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Quick picture of yesterday's white cone tornado near Mangum, OK from a few miles back. Massive chaser convergence yesterday, and sadly some people (not us) driving wrecklessly! 😞

Mike.

DSC_0221 ps.jpg

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