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Tom Lynch

Tour 2 chase day 5 Oklahoma potential High risk

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There are that many chasers on every camera, I can see a problem happening similar to the El Reno situation soon.🙄

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Although the low level jet will be ramping things up, esrh/wind fields already extreme the closer these storms are to central OK (500+ !!!) - cells now going up near Blair/ SW Oklahoma which will ramp up pretty quick if they get going I bet!

image.thumb.png.0242e1c4a806cb2a2c80c15a1cf068cd.png

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SUMMARY...Rapid development of tornadic supercells expected in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across the Texas Panhandle and west Texas within an environment characterized by MLCAPE of 3500-4000 J/kg, effective bulk shear of 50-60 kt, and effective SRH of 300+ m^2/s^2. In addition, observed soundings launched by the TORUS field program in this area (Wellington, TX) indicate weak CIN and a favorable low-level kinematic environment for tornadoes in proximity to the developing convection, with a sickle-shaped hodograph and 0-1 km AGL SRH near 300 m^2/s^2. Convection that is developing now is expected to mature quickly, and given the ambient environment, storms should quickly evolve into supercell structures capable of significant, long-tracked tornadoes within the next hour or two -- in agreement with SPC objective analysis.

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Vertically integrated liquid radar grab from gr level 3 - the cell NW of Paducah looks way the stronger of the two now - might merge into a single supercell - 

 

image.thumb.png.eb587631497762eecbde67662771b748.png

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About to get a wedge on KFOR in a minute..

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That KFOR footage is exactly how I remember the Moore on starting

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Yep the Paducah cells have merged now - look at all those chasers that were on the R hand cell - that looks like a dirt road there

image.png

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1 minute ago, samadamsuk said:

wow @ bob pack - no tn, but lots of motio0n

That was loud thunder there,got my volume maxed out and nearly pooped myself lol.

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The KFOR stream on facebook is insane... several huge low circulations.... poss both tornados!!! Madness

 

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The one on KOFR could be a beast ...

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6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That was loud thunder there,got my volume maxed out and nearly pooped myself lol.

Sound ? I cant seem to get any sound on it! haha //

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1 minute ago, SalopWatcher said:

The KFOR stream on facebook is insane... several huge low circulations.... poss both tornados!!! Madness

 

when that drops properly its going to be one big wedge!!

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1 minute ago, samadamsuk said:

Sound ? I cant seem to get any sound on it! haha //

Got sound here.

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Got sound here.

Ive never had sound on Bob Pack??

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"SUMMARY...Tornado potential will likely increase across southwest OK during the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows several quasi-discrete supercells over the eastern TX Panhandle into the Low Rolling Plains. Additional storm development is possible over southwest OK ahead of the supercells located to the west. It is less clear regarding convective initiation and supercell development farther east towards the I-44/I-35 corridors (besides the Logan County supercell). Surface analysis shows lower 70s surface dewpoints with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s over southwest OK to the middle 70s near OKC. A composite front/outflow-reinforced boundary is located across the eastern TX Panhandle arcing to the east-northeast to near Stillwater, OK. South of this boundary, a very unstable to extremely unstable airmass will support intense updraft development with existing storms. KTLX VAD data shows a larger hodograph compared to KFDR's VAD (0-1km SRH of 300 and 200 m2/s2, respectively). Short-term model guidance has trended away from a possible scenario of discrete storm development over south-central OK. The most probable scenario involves several tornadic supercells likely moving across southwest OK and approaching the I-40 corridor west of the OKC metro."

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0705.html

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