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Tom Lynch

Tour 2 chase day 3 Oklahoma

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We started the day in Colby Kansas and stopped for lunch in Dodge.   We sat south of Dodge watching storms developing on the dryline to the west of us. We then went and chased down the Alva and towards Enid Oklahoma. We cut through the front edge of a severe storm and got into a position where we could see some beautiful structure.  

We stopped ahead of the storm in clear air for guests to take photos of the lightning and the got to a diner in Enid as the storm was hitting town.

 

 

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Chased near Enid Oklahoma 

Sorry todays briefing slipped into this post but never mind 

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Here is a quick un-edited picture from a funnel that formed right at the end of yesterday's chase, backlit by a C-G. Never touched down but a chunky wall cloud nonetheless!

DSC_0877.thumb.JPG.4a8d4ae363ab55a69e34da0acb7b8f83.JPG

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Another C-G from an earlier storm yesterday!

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DSC_0777.JPG

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I think it could be an early night tonight and get set for Monday late afternoon....logging on and getting tabs set up and open.

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Posted (edited)

NWS Lubbock (NW Texas) mentions forecast soundings indicating hail up to 5 inches and significant tornadoes for tomorrow 😮

Quote

With ongoing warm advection through the day, atmosphere should recover fairly fast if any storms fire early and early storms may actually help enhance the risk for more discrete convection later in the day by increasing the cap a bit allowing the lower atmosphere to recover. Next issue is when a second round of convection develops which the CAMs are showing to happen between 19-21Z west of I-27. These storms rapidly intensify and should quickly start rotating with the deep layer and directional shear with storms being able to tap into surface parcels. Sounding analogs are showing the potential for very large hail up to 5 inches in some cases and a few analogs for significant tornadoes are also showing up in model forecast soundings. Again the question will be if storms remain discrete or if they will start to form a line. Discrete storms will increase the threat for very large hail and tornadoes while a convective line may reduce the threat somewhat but remaining non-zero.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LUB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

 

Edited by Nick F

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It's not often you see personal comments like this from the forecasters!!

 

This is one forecast I hope doesn`t pan out for the sake of what could happen if the models are indeed right

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1 hour ago, matty40s said:

It's not often you see personal comments like this from the forecasters!!

 

This is one forecast I hope doesn`t pan out for the sake of what could happen if the models are indeed right

For chasers and researchers alike there’s always a tricky balance between expecting high-end activity and hoping the impacts are minimised. No one wants to see damage or casualties on these sort of days but the bottom line is it’s going to happen whether we like it or not and chasers in the field can benefit the communities in the risk areas by calling in reports that trigger warnings that in turn give people a few precious minutes of time to react.

 

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Get the feeling the OKC metro could see some disasterous stuff again, its got a bullseye over it tomorrow. 

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