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Roger J Smith

June 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests

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No change in Sunny Sheffield now -0.5C below normal. With the beginning of back tracking heat wise we may still get an average to below June.

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13.3c to the 21st

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average

0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 12.8c to the 13th & 14th

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Sunny Sheffield up to 13.4C -0.4C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

The steady drift away from heat does raise the odds of a below average month certainly in CET zone. I still think we will make average just.

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13.3c to the 22nd

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average

0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 12.8c to the 13th & 14th

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A major ramping up of the CET for the rest of the month, will most likely enable the finishing value to be comfortably above the 61-90 average if with any marked downward adjustments - expecting daily increase of 0.2-0.3 degrees equating to about a 1.0-1.5 degree rise, finish value around the mid 14s possibly nudging close to 15 degrees depending on the extent of the heat and less downward adjustment.

A near average final figure, disguising a very un-average month, a distinctly chilly two thirds, with a distinctly very warm final third..

Can we see a below average month this year? cold spells seem to be cancelled out by the depth of the warmer spells.. not far off this month though, had this upcoming warm spell waited a week.. indeed the 30 day mean from the 25 May - 23 June I suspect is below the 61-90 running mean, so we have had at least 1 month spell below average..

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13.5c to the 23rd

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average

0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 12.8c to the 13th & 14th

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Sunny Sheffield up to 13.4C -0.5C below normal. Rainfall up to 109.3mm 149.9% of the monthly average. With hot spell down to a day it doesn't look like they'll be a major ramp up in values.

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13.7c to the 24th

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 12.8c to the 13th & 14th

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wet and cold Edmonton is currently running at 3.4c below normal for June..certainly been the wettest and coldest June i can remember here..incidentally this is the 4th month out of the last 12 that's has been well below normal in my neck of the woods anyway....looks like staying cool and wet right into July...one blessing will help with forest fires this season...bad news mosquitoes will be out in force once the sun does come out :wallbash:

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Sunny Sheffield up to 13.6C -0.3C below average. Today will put a negative dint in so it should drop a little. Rainfall 110.6mm 151.5% of the monthly average.

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Not quite as warm in the CET zone today as was looking at the end of last week, so possibly only a 0.1 degree, maybe 0.2 degree rise tomorrow. It will be Thursday when we break through the 61-90 average.. a very near average value.

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13.9c to the 25th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 12.8c to the 13th & 14th

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Wonder how big the adjustments will be at the end and whether it would bring June back to below average!

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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Most likely finish before corrections appears to be 14.7, maybe 14.8 so would take 0.2 to 0.3 to equate to 1981-2010 normals. The 1989-2018 average is 14.7 so it may not hold on to that "new" normal. I'm on 14.4 so you can pretty much rule out a big downward correction, it's a rule. 

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EWP tracker had reached 113 mm on 24th, may come close to my earlier provisional of 133 mm for the contest scoring. But at this point the only score that can change now is the 200 mm forecast by LG, otherwise all the other scores are locked in (within 0.2-0.3 for any that either lose or gain from adjustments to LG's current mid-range score). (also the "what if" score I gave in a separate entry for stewfox is only confirmed at 128.1 mm otherwise it would be reduced slightly, highest forecast officially other than the 200 mm was 116 mm). 

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Sunny Sheffield still on 13.6 -0.4C below average. Rainfall 133.7mm 183.2% of the monthly average.

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Yes suspect we will end up 14.7 or 14.8 degrees, with perhaps a 0.2-0.3 degree downward adjustment would equate to a 14.4-14.6 degree value. A very near average month disguising a notably cool first two thirds, and very warm last third. Overall though a poor month with the chilliness predominating. Indeed today has been notably cool for many.

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Going by the 12z, I think we won't even reach the 81-10 average before corrections arrive.
14.6C is the warmest I'd estimate,with the most likely figure being 14.4C.

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2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Yes suspect we will end up 14.7 or 14.8 degrees, with perhaps a 0.2-0.3 degree downward adjustment would equate to a 14.4-14.6 degree value. A very near average month disguising a notably cool first two thirds, and very warm last third. Overall though a poor month with the chilliness predominating. Indeed today has been notably cool for many.

Very similar to June 2012, where the CET was running in the 12s for much of the month before rising sharply at the end. Only difference being that his time round the heat looks set to have a bigger impact on the final figure.

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13.9c to the 26th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 12.8c to the 13th & 14th

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2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

GFS has warmed a little, so 14.5C (range of 14.0C to 14.6C) is the favoured outcome before corrections now.

image.thumb.png.37a3165553ae5a0cb48f2ff3585c6bbe.png

So well short of what was showing just a few days ago.

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Sunny Sheffield at 13.6C still. -0.5C below normal. Rainfall 133.9mm 183.4% of the monthly average.

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Sunny Sheffield still at 13.6C -0.6C below normal. Rainfall Unchanged.

Looks pretty certain that June will become in just below average here.

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