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Roger J Smith

June 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests

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Sunny Sheffield at 13.8C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall 19.7mm 27% of the monthly average.

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13.8c to the 8th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 13.8c to the 8th

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Posted (edited)

Hadley EWP tracker jumped to 31 mm after the 7th (17 mm) and is probably around 33-35 now. The 06z GFS shows an average of 45-55 mm more in the next ten days, which would place the total around 80-90 mm with eleven days to go.

There are only six forecasts above 90 mm and two at 88 mm, so if you went above our consensus of 70 mm you will probably move up this month, if the above is generally true. 

I worked out a provisional scoring table for a relatively conservative 84.9 mm (the exact decimal is used to avoid ties) which you can see in the attached excel file. The forecasts for June that are above 90 mm are highlighted in red, those scores could improve in the higher forecast cases to whatever extent June exceeds 85 mm, but with so few in play, all the other scores can only drop slightly if they do improve. The same six are highlighted in the scoring table (red highlights on total scores) so you can assume those six might move up further than shown here if the end of the month is also wet. Of these, Lettucing Gutted (200 mm) needs a lot of extra rain to move up (130-140 mm would start to accumulate some points). Then I Rem Atl 252 (110 mm) and Godber1 (116 mm) need just a 10-20 mm increase over 85 mm to make a large upward move. The others in the 90s already have fairly high scores and can only move up slightly before falling back to current positions if the total moves past them. 

(hypothetical scoring for 84.9 mm)

 

 

 

EWP20182019H.xlsx

Edited by Roger J Smith

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On 19/05/2019 at 18:04, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

13.5C, trough dominated, winds mostly from E/NE, troughs at time to get stuck over UK for a few days, wet too

110mm

SIGH!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Expect a marked downward turn in the CET days ahead, notably suppressed low maxima, not summery in the slightest.

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11 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Expect a marked downward turn in the CET days ahead, notably suppressed low maxima, not summery in the slightest.

As I mentioned before, I think on the most notable reasons for the CET always seeming to be above isnt due to rising daytime temps.

Its to do with forever warmer nights, so when we get a spell of lower mins thats the main reason we get average or below average monthly temps.

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13.7c to the 9th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 13.7c to the 9th

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Am i right i  thinking that 13.4 is the target to hit for the coolest in 29 years?

GFS6z would give us a very good chance.

Also what is cooler than 1991 as our next (unlikely) mark.

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7 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

As I mentioned before, I think on the most notable reasons for the CET always seeming to be above isnt due to rising daytime temps.

Its to do with forever warmer nights, so when we get a spell of lower mins thats the main reason we get average or below average monthly temps.

Got down to 5.2c last night here.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Am i right i  thinking that 13.4 is the target to hit for the coolest in 29 years?

GFS6z would give us a very good chance.

Also what is cooler than 1991 as our next (unlikely) mark.

Yes that's right although I think you mean 28 years. The most recent June which was cooler than 1991 was 11.8c in 1972.

I should add by a brief look at the records 1972 is the joint second coolest June on record alongside 1909 and 1916. 1675 recorded a CET of 11.5 so that couldn't have been any higher than 11.7c to be rounded to that, so no doubt that was the actual coolest.

Edited by Walsall Wood Snow

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5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

13.7c to the 9th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 13.7c to the 9th

so all those people moaning in the summer thread about how cold and disgusting June has been..its actually average so far ?

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10 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

so all those people moaning in the summer thread about how cold and disgusting June has been..its actually average so far ?

A minor detail, CM!:oldgrin:

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1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

so all those people moaning in the summer thread about how cold and disgusting June has been..its actually average so far ?

Gawd help them next few days then.

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Already a decent swathe of the country in the 15-20mm bracket today with more to come. So likely to see a decent rise today, and again for the next few.

Could be a very wet month in the EWP if this type of pattern locks in.

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Sunny Sheffield down 13.7C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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13 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

As I mentioned before, I think on the most notable reasons for the CET always seeming to be above isnt due to rising daytime temps.

Its to do with forever warmer nights, so when we get a spell of lower mins thats the main reason we get average or below average monthly temps.

Yes there is truth in this, colder than average minima combined with average maxima is the best combo it seems for colder than average CET. We saw such conditions in early May and was thanks to anticyclonic conditions. In summer such a scenario tends to only occur with heights to the north or north west and a chilly flow from the north or north east - conditions that are happening now over Scotland and far north of England, whilst further SE we have higher minima thanks to overcast conditions overnight.

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10 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

13.7c to the 9th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 13.7c to the 9th

Yes. decent June, any month between April and Oct, I want above average

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5 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

so all those people moaning in the summer thread about how cold and disgusting June has been..its actually average so far ?

They are going to have an absolute field day until Friday then.

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13.4c to the 10th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 13.4c to the 10th

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Any update on the EWP?, is the June record likely to go or not?

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Any update on the EWP?, is the June record likely to go or not?

Long way to go yet. 36mm up to 9th. 

 

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Just now, Weather-history said:

Long way to go yet. 36mm up to 9th. 

 

Some models showing a months worth in some areas over next 30 hours, i suspect it will end up very wet but not record breaking (dont know what the record is though), i reckon about 130mm by months end, feel pretty sure my 67 will bust on the low side by this weekend, dryer after this week for the rest of month likely but certainly not very dry.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Some models showing a months worth in some areas over next 30 hours, i suspect it will end up very wet but not record breaking (dont know what the record is though), i reckon about 130mm by months end, feel pretty sure my 67 will bust on the low side by this weekend, dryer after this week for the rest of month likely but certainly not very dry.

Record is 160.1mm in 2012 

The way the year has gone so far, it has been alternating between very dry and very wet. The tap may be turned off again very soon.

Edited by Weather-history

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That is indicative of blocking, these stonking Greeny highs could bode well for next winter if this continues, could be a really good ice melt season, stopping the PV from gaining traction later on.

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On 10/06/2019 at 08:29, seaside 60 said:

As I mentioned before, I think on the most notable reasons for the CET always seeming to be above isnt due to rising daytime temps.

Its to do with forever warmer nights, so when we get a spell of lower mins thats the main reason we get average or below average monthly temps.

I don't think this is always the case, there have been several months recently that have had lower minima but have ended up being above average mainly due to the daytimes maxes. February this year was a good example. Last May was another. April this year is another example of an above average month with high maxes as opposed to high mins.

I could list loads more recently. Most of last summer was more notably above average during the day than at night, particularly in June and early July.

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