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Roger J Smith

June 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests

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1981-2010 Daily and Cumulative Normals. plus Daily Extremes for June (1772-2018) and

 extreme daily values of running CET

_________________________________________________________________________

Date __ CET _ cum CET __ MAX _____ MIN _____________ Running CET extremes

01 ____ 13.5 __ 13.5 ___ 20.9 (1781) __ 7.7 (1802&1962) ___ 20.9 (1781) __ 7.7 (1802,1962)

02 ____ 13.8 __ 13.7 ___ 22.3 (1947) __ 7.6 (1991) ________ 21.6 (1947) __ 8.3 (1802)

03 ____ 13.4 __ 13.6 ___ 23.0 (1947) __ 7.9 (1773) ________ 22.0 (1947) __ 8.5 (1975)

04 ____ 13.2 __ 13.5 ___ 20.3 (1982) __ 8.0 (1871&1991) ___ 21.2 (1947) __ 8.7 (1975, 1991)

05 ____ 13.3 __ 13.4 ___ 21.3 (1982) __ 8.2 (1991) ________ 19.6 (1947) __ 8.6 (1991)

06 ____ 13.7 __ 13.5 ___ 22.5 (1950) __ 8.4 (1909) ________ 19.5 (1982) __ 9.2 (1989, 1991)

07 ____ 14.0 __ 13.6 ___ 21.6 (1846) __ 8.6 (1814) ________ 19.2 (1982) __ 9.5 (1989, 1991)

08 ____ 13.9 __ 13.6 ___ 20.4 (1940) __ 8.6 (1881&1914) ___ 19.1 (1982) __ 9.6 (1989)

09 ____ 14.0 __ 13.6 ___ 20.9 (1970) __ 7.3 (1816) ________ 19.0 (1982) __ 9.9 (1989)

10 ____ 14.3 __ 13.7 ___ 21.5 (1970) __ 8.2 (1821) ________ 18.6 (1982) _ 10.4 (1814,1916,1989,1991)

11 ____ 13.6 __ 13.7 ___ 21.0 (1970) __ 8.0 (1777) ________ 18.4 (1830) _ 10.4 (1909, 1991)

12 ____ 13.9 __ 13.7 ___ 20.8 (2006) __ 8.6 (1841) ________ 18.4 (1846) _ 10.4 (1909)

13 ____ 14.0 __ 13.7 ___ 20.5 (1818,1989) _ 8.5 (1901) _____ 18.5 (1846) _ 10.5 (1916)

14 ____ 14.4 __ 13.8 ___ 19.4 (1814) __ 7.9 (1903) ________ 18.5 (1846) _ 10.5 (1916)

15 ____ 14.2 __ 13.8 ___ 22.9 (1858) __ 8.1 (1850) ________ 18.6 (1846) _ 10.6 (1916)

16 ____ 14.8 __ 13.9 ___20.7 (1858,1896) _ 9.6 (1869) _____ 18.7 (1846) _ 10.6 (1916)

17 ____ 15.0 __ 13.9 ___ 21.4 (1917) __ 9.1 (1928) ________ 18.8 (1846) _ 10.6 (1916)

18 ____ 14.8 __ 14.0 ___ 21.2 (2005) __ 8.1 (1855) ________ 18.9 (1846) _ 10.7 (1916)

19 ____ 15.2 __ 14.1 ___ 22.1 (2005) __ 7.3 (1795) ________ 19.0 (1846) _ 10.7 (1916)

20 ____ 15.1 __ 14.1 ___ 21.7 (1846) __ 9.0 (1795&1964) ___ 19.1 (1846) _ 10.7 (1916)

21 ____ 14.4 __ 14.1 ___ 22.7 (1817) __ 9.8 (1903) ________ 19.1 (1846) _ 10.9 (1916)

22 ____ 14.6 __ 14.1 ___ 22.3 (1941) __ 9.0 (1823) ________ 19.2 (1846) _ 11.0 (1916)

23 ____ 14.8 __ 14.2 ___ 21.8 (1935) __ 9.4 (1823) ________ 19.0 (1846) _ 11.2 (1916)

24 ____ 14.9 __ 14.2 ___ 22.0 (1935) __10.1 (1784)________ 18.8 (1846) _ 11.4 (1916)

25 ____ 15.3 __ 14.2 ___ 21.6 (1935) __ 8.7 (1835) ________ 18.6 (1846) _ 11.5 (1916)

26 ____ 15.3 __ 14.3 ___ 22.3 (1976) __ 9.7 (1835) ________ 18.5 (1846) _ 11.5 (1916)

27 ____ 15.6 __ 14.3 ___ 22.8 (1826) __10.2 (1862)________ 18.4 (1846) _ 11.6 (1916)

28 ____ 15.6 __ 14.4 ___ 22.6 (1976) __ 9.4 (1812) ________ 18.3 (1846) _ 11.7 (1909,1916)

29 ____ 16.0 __ 14.4 ___ 22.4 (1976) __ 9.7 (1839) ________ 18.3 (1846) _ 11.7 (1916)

30 ____ 15.8 __ 14.5 ___ 22.1 (1976) __ 9.1 (1839) ________ 18.2 (1846) _ 11.8 (1909,16,72)*

_____________________________________________________________________

* 11.5 before daily data began in 1675, that month may have had other earlier lower values than shown here. 

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17.1c to the 1st

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average

3.6c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st

Current low this month 17.1c to the 1st

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17.1c to the 2nd

4.2c above the 61 to 90 average

3.4c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

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Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 12z GFS

image.thumb.png.e061c31092e6cd9616a0632115520f99.png


The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

image.thumb.png.8027f42d75c1500b64840335e347807b.pngimage.thumb.png.d0f9fd74e35f1e77b38568f568408659.png  

After a warm start, things quickly dropping, and the mean running below the rolling 81-10 average before day 10.
In terms of how cool this start is compared to recent years (12.9C to the 12th, if verified), it's not at all unusual. Since 2011, 4 of the 8 years have had a cooler first 12 days (2011, 2012, 2013 and 2015).

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Om, wot? 

12.9°C to the 12th? It's mean to be June, not October. I'm fairly sure the GFS under predicts temps, so I'd expect the reality to be rather higher than this. 

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16.1c to the 3rd

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average

2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 16.1c to the 3rd

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Probably too late 16.3c 140mm

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19 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Probably too late 16.3c 140mm

Are you in Honolulu? 😜

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15.4c to the 4th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 15.4c to the 4th

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On 04/06/2019 at 12:51, Quicksilver1989 said:

Are you in Honolulu? 😜

Opps to high but probably too late. 

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On 04/06/2019 at 04:31, stewfox said:

Probably too late 16.3c 140mm

Apparently so, will let you know at end of month what score that EWP forecast would have registered. Looks plausible at this point. 

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14.9c to the 5th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 14.9c to the 5th

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Sunny Sheffield at 15.3C +3.1C above normal. So a warm start to June. Rainfall 8.1mm 11.1% of the monthly average.

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Sunny Sheffield down to 14.9C +2.6C above normal, Rainfall 9.4mm 12/9% of the monthly rainfall.

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14.4c to the 6th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 14.4c to the 6th

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Down we go, I expect that the high point for this month will be the 1st two days.

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2 hours ago, snowray said:

Down we go, I expect that the high point for this month will be the 1st two days.

If the GFS 06z came off, I'd estimate a CET of 12.5C by the 23rd 😮😮

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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

If the GFS 06z came off, I'd estimate a CET of 12.5C by the 23rd 😮😮

Surely we will get at least one settled period of weather before months end....or will we?😱

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Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 12z GFS

image.thumb.png.f5f3dbc41cf06d76ee5da04ac2c2f089.png

The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

image.thumb.png.9d75c5f1a46c7520f1b36a94d0f277d5.png  image.thumb.png.acf9fabe2c25defdd1d0866c37f22744.png

Quite a cool period coming up, with the 16th forecast to set a new daily cold record. Been quite some time since we've seen something like that forecast!
Surprisingly, that 12.9C rolling CET to the 16th is still nothing unusual, as it was cooler to the same day in 2012, 2013 and 2015. This is largely thanks to the first 2 days. If those first 2 had only been average, the forecast would be 11.8C to the 16th, the coolest since 1991!

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23 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 12z GFS

image.thumb.png.f5f3dbc41cf06d76ee5da04ac2c2f089.png

The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

image.thumb.png.9d75c5f1a46c7520f1b36a94d0f277d5.png  image.thumb.png.acf9fabe2c25defdd1d0866c37f22744.png

Quite a cool period coming up, with the 16th forecast to set a new daily cold record. Been quite some time since we've seen something like that forecast!
Surprisingly, that 12.9C rolling CET to the 16th is still nothing unusual, as it was cooler to the same day in 2012, 2013 and 2015. This is largely thanks to the first 2 days. If those first 2 had only been average, the forecast would be 11.8C to the 16th, the coolest since 1991!

Indeed, last cold daily record was 15 months ago, but last the Summer one was July 1993! Can't see this one coming off sadly.

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I am starting to wonder if it going to be one of those occasions when the month is almost the polar opposite to the same month the previous year. It has happened in recent times either in rainfall, temperature, sunshine or sometimes all three. 

July 2006 and 2007

April 2011 and 2012

March 2012 and 2013 

Further back August 1911 and 1912, January 1795 and 1796.

I hope not!

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Sunny Sheffield down to 14.4C +2.0C above normal. Rainfall 17.5 24% of the monthly normal.

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14.1c to the 7th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 14.1c to the 7th

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Looks like the total rainfall for June 2018 for England and Wales fell on the 7th of June this year

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