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Roger J Smith

June 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests

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No guesses on Atlantic garbage but I'll guess a CET of 14.4C. Particularly cool in the west but continental warmth perhaps affecting the East. Below average temperatures in the first half, especially next week before a warm spell towards the end bumps things back up to average once more.

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Slightly warmer and wetter than average:

15.1C and 80mm

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A cool, cloudy washout to start the summer.

13.9c and 95.0mm

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A slight change of mind from me, no change on my CET but i am upping my rainfall prediction as i am guessing as its the EWP, that includes far North West England, and that is showing some monumental totals which should offset the drier areas.

So

16c still but with 67.7mm rainfall please.

Sorry for the inconvenience Roger, i will now delete my original post so that this is the only one showing.

Thanks.

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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On 26/05/2019 at 16:04, Ed Stone said:

16.4C and 55mm please.

I'll just take my temp down to 15.9C, but leave the rainfall unchanged, please...

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14.6c for me please 

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This table will be updated with later entries. Posting a bit before the deadline to give late entrants an overview of available CET untaken spots.

Summary of forecasts for June 2019

__ number in brackets after forecaster name shows order of entry __

__ revised CET entries can leave an earlier EWP entry number which would be second number in bracket __

 

CET _ EWP _ Forecaster _________________ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster

20.5 __200.0__Lettucing Gutted (7) _________ 14.9 __ ----- __ Dancerwithwings (20) ________

17.6 ___ 9.2 __ Chrisbell-notthewxman (22) ___14.8 __ ----- __ snowray (37) _______________

16.6 __ 45.0 __ Leo97t (19) ________________14.8 __ ----- __ Duncan McAlister (49) ________

16.4 __ 67.0 __ SteveB (32) _______________ 14.8 __ 70.0 __ Don (55) ___________________

16.0 __ 67.7 __ Feb1991blizzard (43) ________14.7 __ 92.0 __ virtualsphere (10) ___________

16.0 __ ----- __ Relativistic (52) _____________14.7 __ ----- __  ProlongedSnowlover (25) _____

15.9 __ 60.0 __ The PIT (28) _______________14.7 __ 70.0 __ Jonboy (33) _______________

15.9 __ 55.0 __ EdStone (45,21.5) __________ 14.7 __ 81.6 __ brmbrmcar (39) ____________

15.8 __ 78.4 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (2) _______ 14.7 __ ----- __ Walsall Wood Snow (L1-2) ____

15.8 __ 97.7 __ Weather26 (5) _____________ 14.6 __ 65.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (15) ________

15.7 __ 62.0 __ seaside 60 (35) ____________ 14.6 __ ----- __ sundog (47) ________________

15.6 __ 62.6 __ CheesepuffScott (1) _________14.6 __ 63.0 __ daniel* (54) ________________

15.6 __ 75.0 __ DAVID SNOW (41) __________14.6 __ 67.7 __ 1989-2018 average _________

15.5 __ ----- __ Earthshine (13) _____________ 14.5 __ ----- __ summer blizzard (6) _________

15.5 __ ----- __ Summer Sun (24) ___________ 14.5 __ 75.0 __ DR(S)NO (11) _____________

15.5 __ 57.2 __ Thundery wintry showers (36) _ 14.5 __ 66.3 __ 1981-2010 average __________

15.5 __ ----- __ damianslaw (51) ____________ 14.4 __ 59.8 __ Roger J Smith (17) __________

15.5 __ 88.0 __ BornFromtheVoid (34) _______ 14.4 __ ----- __ Quicksilver1989 (38) _________

15.4 __ 68.5 __ Polar Gael (9) ______________14.3 __ 88.0 __ nn2013 (4) ________________

15.4 __ 48.0 __ Bobd29 (18) ________________

15.4 __ 61.0 __ davehsug (50) _____________ 14.3 __ 65.0 __ Thundershine (23) __________

15.4 __ 76.0 __ Blast From the Past (L1-1) ___ 14.2 __ 60.0 __ Stationary Front (31) ________

15.3 __ ----- __ Man with Beard (26) _________ 13.9 __ 40.0 __ DiagonalRedLine (12) _______

15.2 __ 68.0 __ JeffC (14) _________________13.9 __ 77.0 __ Timmytour (30) _____________

15.1 __ 70.0 __ weather-history (27) _________13.9 __ 95.0 __ B87 (42) __________________

15.1 __ 80.0 __ reef (40) __________________ 13.8 __ 66.0 __ SunnyDazee (3)____________

15.1 __ 71.0 __ stargazer (46) ______________13.8 __116.0__Godber1 (48) _______________

15.1 __ ----- __ Mark Bayley (53) ____________13.5 __110.0__IRememberAtlantic252 (8) ____

15.0 __ ----- __ Jonathan F. (16) ____________ 13.5 __ 66.0 __ syed2878 (21) _____________

15.0 __ 94.0 __ LetItSnow! (29) _____________13.2 __ ----- __ Kentish Man (57)

15.0 __ 69.25 __consensus

15.0 __ 60.0 __ Mulzy (44) ________________

15.0 __ 75.0 __ Norrance (56) ______________

15.0 __ 80.0 __ J10 (58) ___________________

_______________________________________________________________

58 on-time forecasts, one late by one day, median 15.0.

 

EWP forecasts in order

200 LG ... ... 116 Godber1 ... ... 110 IRA252 ... ... 97.7 Wx26 ... ... 95 B87 ... ... 94 LIS ... ... 92 virt ... ... 88 nn, BFTV

 81.6 brm ...  80 reef, J10 ... 78.4 KW ... 77 Tim ... 76 BFTP ... 75 DR(S)NO, DSNOW, Norr ... 71 star ... 70 w-h, jon, Don con

 68.5 PG ... ... 68 JeffC ...  67.7 1989-2018 and Feb91 ... ... 67 SteveB ...  66.3 1981-2010 ... 66 sundaz, syed

 65 Thun ... ... 63 dan* ... ... 62.6 CPS ... ... 62 sea60 ... ... 61 dave ... ... 60 PIT, SF, Mul ... ... 59.8 RJS

 57.2 TWS ... ... 55 MIA, EdS ... ... 48 Bob ... ... 45 Leo ... ... 40 DRL ... ...  9.2 CBntw

________________________________________________________

43 on-time forecasts, one late by one day, median (consensus) 69.25 mm

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Perhaps a CET with a similiar trajectory to May, but not the same depth of cold early on (and the very start will be very different), and perhaps more significant warmth mid-late month, so a finish around 1 degree above, 15.5 degrees.

A marked NW - East split, with continental warmth reserved mostly for the east and south east. 

 

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Only two occurrences of consecutive 16C+ Junes have been recorded. Both 1785 and 1786 recorded June CETs of 16.1C, while 2017 and 2018 recorded 16.0C and 16.1C, respectively. Could we make three in a row for the first time?

I'll go for 16.0C.

Edited by Relativistic
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14.8C and 70mm please.

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15.0c and 80mm

I would go warmer but for the cool weather forecasted for next week. As for the rain a wet start is in prospect so I have gone for a damp June overall.

Edited by J10
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