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Roger J Smith

June 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests

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(a) CET forecasts -- the averages and extremes

includes all values 1981 to 2018 colour coded for warmest, middle and coolest thirds. 

23.0 ... 3rd, 1947, warmest daily mean

22.4 ... average for last five days in June 1976

21.2 ... average for last nine days in June 1976

18.2 ... 1846 (warmest June)

18.0 ... 1676 (2nd warmest)

17.3 ... 1826 (3rd warmest)

17.1 ... 1822 (4th warmest)

17.0 ... 1976 (5th warmest)

16.1 ... 2003, 2018

16.0 ... 2017

15.9 ... 2006

15.7 ... 1992

15.5 ... 1982, 2005

15.3 ... 2004

15.2 ... 2010, 2016

15.1 ... 2000, 2007, 2014

15.0 ... 1993

14.9 ... average for 2001-2018.

14.8 ... 1986, 2009

14.7 ... 1822-1851 has the warmest 30-year average of 14.72. June is the only month where this maximum is before 1971-2000 (Dec).

14.68 ... 1991-2018 (emerging 1991-2020 average) ,,, closing in on 1822-1851. 

14.6 ... 1989 and average for 1989-2018 (14.64) 

14.5 ... 1984, 1994 ... average for 1981-2010, 1986-2015, also for 1701-1800

14.4 ... 1983, 1988, 1996, 2002

14.3 ... 1995, 2001 and average for all years 1659-2018 (14.33), also 1801-1900

14.2 ... 1998 and average for 1961-1990, also 1901-2000

14.1 ... 1997 and average for 1971-2000, also 1659-1700

14.0 ... 2015

13.9 ... 1999, 2008

13.8 ... 2011

13.6 ... 1990, 2013

13.5 ... 2012

13.2 ... 1981

12.8 ... 1987

12.7 ... 1985

12.1 ... 1991 (lone 8th coldest after 1689, 1698 at 12.0 tied 6th coldest)

11.9 ... 1749 (5th coldest)

11.8 ... 1972, 1916, 1909 (tied 2nd coldest)

11.5 ... 1675 (coldest June)

7.3 ... 9th (1816) and 19th (1795) coldest daily means

__________________________________________________________________

At 16.1, 2003 and 2018 were tied 18th warmest which is the least extreme such ranking for any month in the period 1981 to 2018. The next in line is May (tied 6th warmest). June is also the only month that has a more extreme cold rank since 1981 (June 1991 -- 8th coldest) than its warmest rank. From 2010 to 2015 December shared that distinction. Besides December 2010 (2nd coldest) and June 1991 (8th coldest) the only other months since 1981 with coldest 15 placements in the entire period of record since 1659 are Feb 1986 (5th coldest), March 2013 (tied 12th coldest), May 1996 (tied 13th coldest), Sept 1986 (tied 14th coldest), and Dec 1981 (tied 8th coldest). 

___________________________________________________________________

Enter the CET forecast contest by end of the day Friday 31st of May without penalty, or on any of the first three days of June with increasing late penalties.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___________ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 

EWP contest

The contest uses the England and Wales Hadley precip series (1766 to present) as its source. 

Predict the June 2019 rainfall in mm.

160.1 mm __ 2012 wettest 1766 to 2018

157.1 mm __ 1860 (2nd wettest 1766 to 2018)

_67.7 mm __ mean 1989-2018

_66.3 mm __ mean 1981-2010

_16.5 mm __ 2018 driest 1981-2018 (20.2 mm in 1995 previous minimum)

__4.3 mm __ 1925 driest 1766-2018

In recent years, 2018 _ 16.5 mm ___ 2017 _ 93.8 mm ___ 2016 _ 114.0 mm ___ 2015 _ 38.8 mm ___ 2014 _ 49.8 mm. 

- - - - - _______________________________ - - - - -

Enter the EWP contest (add your forecast to your CET temp forecast), same deadlines and from 1st to 3rd of June, it's 0.2 point deductions per day late to end of 3rd. Maximum score is 10.0 for closest forecast, all others are scored on a sliding scale by rank down to 0.0 points for least accurate. Duplicate entries lose 0.1 points by order of entry. 

Good luck in both contests !!

_______________________________ > > > >

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Posted (edited)

15.6°C and 62.6mm please. Generally above average month, rinse and repeat with some very warm/hot periods and a few cooler, wetter spells. Not a washout though.

Edited by CheesepuffScott

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13.8c and 66mm please

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14.3c and 88mm please. 

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I'll go bang on average at 14.5C, i suspect the month will start better and end worse.

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13.5C, trough dominated, winds mostly from E/NE, troughs at time to get stuck over UK for a few days, wet too

110mm

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17 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

13.5C, trough dominated, winds mostly from E/NE, troughs at time to get stuck over UK for a few days, wet too

110mm

you use reverse psychology in your forecasts!!!   -   you always go for your most hated weather type and temperatures.

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Would expect this to be a "back-loaded" summer that starts out poorly and does better in August and September. Has been a while since the last example, I suppose 2012 was better in August than the other months, but I'm thinking more like perhaps 1975 with a more distinct improvement. 

 

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14 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Would expect this to be a "back-loaded" summer that starts out poorly and does better in August and September. Has been a while since the last example, I suppose 2012 was better in August than the other months, but I'm thinking more like perhaps 1975 with a more distinct improvement. 

 

Can't remember where but i have seen some analogues that suggest this, however, i have got a feeling that it will be like last winter where all the experts are wrong, i still think it could be very hot late June and July and then cold and showery in August but then dry in Sept again.

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20.5C  :oldsad:  Last sub 12C June in 1972.  Last sub 13C and last sub 13.5C June in 1991.

200 mm from Atlantic garbage and monsoons.

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5 minutes ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

20.5C  :oldsad:  Last sub 12C June in 1972.  Last sub 13C and last sub 13.5C June in 1991.

200 mm from Atlantic garbage and monsoons.

Not sure those 2 could possibly go hand in hand to be fair.

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15.4C and 68.5mm for me please. 

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure those 2 could possibly go hand in hand to be fair.

But, if they did, there'd sure be a lot of gobsmacked US stormchasers!:oldgrin:

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All to play for this month, I think.

14.5c and 75mm is my guess though

thank you please 

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Considering the way May is turning out, will go for 13.9*C please with 40mm rainfall. Thanks! 

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Posted (edited)

Here's how June CET and EWP have paired in the past 81 years, in graphical form. There is a tendency to warm/dry and cool/wet although all types of combinations have occurred. The graph is set up so that the actual values are at the position of the middle of the four-digit year number (note 1919/1979 same and should begin inside the space of 2015 and also. 1938, 1952 are at same position as are 1905 and 1945, 1908 and 1915, 1912 and 1980, then 1920 and 1953, also 1927 and 1985).

I may expand this back further so check back, as the post may be edited to contain more data. However, a check of all years that exceeded 100 mm (1766 to 1900) shows that none of them had CET values higher than 14.8 C., so no matter how far back I add data, the upper right quadrant of this chart will remain largely void.

 

 JUNE CET vs EWP graphical display 1901-2018 (adding warm Junes 1822,26.46 and also two other very wet Junes 1860,1879) 

__ the driest Junes in 1921 and 1925 are now in the data displayed, which is being gradually augmented with older data through editing.

__ have added June 1868 the driest June in second half of 19th century. _ all 19th century additions in brackets _ separate chart for 1772-1900.

note -- quality control applied to the top chart assures that equal CET values are aligned and on the correct EWP (to nearest 2.5 mm, e.g. 18.8-21.2 for 20, 21.3-23.7, then 23.8 - 26.2 for 25, 26.3 - 28.7 then 28.8 to 31.2 for 30, etc. Spacing of adjacent CET columns is slightly overlapping, for example a set at 12.0, 12.1 and 12.2 would be most accurately shown as YEAREAYEAR (hypothetically for 1977, 1995 and 2022 ... 1977992022 so when three are shown adjacent, the left and right ends are one numeral left and right of where they should be positioned relative to their cohorts (the central year is in the precise accurate location). All equal cases are shown with a comma and the centre point lies where it normally would for the first of the set, not shifted left. Two adjacent would overlap, the left of the two is precisely located and the right member should be one digit further left than shown (where no comma, commas and partial second year numbers are used wherever possible for clarity).

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< C E T >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

_____ 11.5 _____ 12.0 _____ 12.5 _____ 13.0 _____ 13.5 _____ 14.0 _____ 14.5 _____ 15.0 _____ 15.5 _____ 16.0 _____ 16.5 _____ 17.0 _____ 17.5 _____ 18.0 _____ 18.5

E W P

160 ...........................................................................................................2012.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

EWP_____ ....................................(1860.)..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

155 ............................................cool /............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ ...............................................wet ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

150 .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

145 .........................................................................................................................................................................................2007......................................................................................................................................................

______ ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

140 ...............................................................................(1879)............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

135 .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ .......................................................................................................................................1997.................................................................................................................................................................................................

130 .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................1982...........................................................................................................................

______ ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

125 .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ ...........................................................................................................................1980..........19121998..............................................................................................................................................................................

120 .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

115 .................................................................................................................................................................................................2016...............................................................................................................................................

______ ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

110 ....................................................1971.........1987.........................................................1958..................................................................................................................................................................................................

.____ ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

105 .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ ..............................1991...................1927,85........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

100 ......................................................................................................................................................................1936.......................................................................................................................................................................

______ ..........................................................................1928..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

 95 .......................................................................................................1954...............................................................................1935......................1968....2017................................................................................................

______ .....................................................................................................................................................1931..................................................................................................................................................................................... 

 90 .....................................................1907............................................1948.............1999....................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................1966..........................................................................................................................

 85 ...................1909.............1977....................................1946..........................1955.......................................1963.................................................................................................................................................................

______ ..............................................................................1903.................................2011............................1905,45..................................................................................................................................................................... 

 80 ..............................................................................................................1926..................................1911...................................................................................................................................................................................

______ ........................................................................................................................1964.................................................................................................................................................................................................................

 75 ...............................................................................................................1990................................................................1965.........................................................2003.....................................................................................

______ ..............1972.......................................................................................................1902...........................................................................................................................................................................................................

 70 ...................1916...........................................................1956.................................1974.........................1910..........................................................................................................................................................................

______ ...............................................................................................................................1924............1920,53........................1993..........1947.......................................................................................................................

 65 ....................................................................................................................................2008.........1906.(81-10 AVG)..............1917....................................................................................................................................

______ .......................................................................................................1944.1978........................19131939................1973.........................................................................................................................................................

 60 ..........................................................................................................................................................1943..................................2004..........................................................................................................................................

______ ...............................................................................................................................1901............2002.1989..2009..............................1933......................................................................................................................

 55 ..........................................................................................................................................................1938,52.....................................2005.................................................................................................................................

______ .............................................................................................................................................................................................1957...................................1960....................................................................................................

 50 ......................................................................................................................1969.........................................................2014....................................................................................................................................................(1846)

______ ..................................................................................................1929..............................................................1934...........1959.....................................................................................................................................

 45..................................................................................................1981............................................2001..1986.........................................................................1950....................................................................................

______ ...................................................................................................................................1967.1937.....1984...............2000......2010.......................................................................................................................

 40 ..............................................................................................................................1922...............1913.1961.1988.........................................................1970.............................................................................................

______ .............................................................................................................2013..........1951,20151919,79.............1983............................................1992.....................................................................................................

 35 ...........................................................................................................................................1932190819151994................1941.................................................................................................................................................

______ ..................................................................................................1904...........................................................................................1930......................................................................(1822.)....................................................

 30 .......................................................................................................1918.........................................1996......................................................................................................................................warm /................................

______ ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................dry................................

 25 ...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................2006..............................................................................................................

______ .......................................................................................................................................................................1975.................................................................................................................................................................

 20 .........................................................1923..................................................................................19951942..........................................................................................1940.............................................................................

______ ................................................................................................................1962.....................................................................1949.(1868)................2018...................................1976...............................................

 15 .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................(1826)...................................

 10 ........................................................................................................................................................................1921.....................................................................................................................................................................

______ .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

 05 .......................................................................................................................................................................................1925.....................................................................................................................................................

_____ 11.5 _____ 12.0 _____ 12.5 _____ 13.0 _____ 13.5 _____ 14.0 _____ 14.5 _____ 15.0 _____ 15.5 _____ 16.0 _____ 16.5 _____ 17.0 _____ 17.5 _____ 18.0 _____ 18.5

Note:

The chart establishes the fact that many Junes are both cooler to near normal in temperature, and drier than average, almost all wet Junes are also cooler than average, an exception being 1982. The majority of the warmer Junes are quite dry. This appears to be the case for the older historical data not yet added.

This chart will begin to get too cluttered in the central portions if I try to go back any further, so I will put brackets around the pre-1900 additions then post a separate chart for the interval 1766 to 1900, to see if it takes on this same appearance (clustering to the cool, dry side of average). What it tells me is that "normal" based on averages is different from "normal" based on median values and perhaps we would have a clearer picture of the real climate from using median values if the distributions are skewed. For EWP in particular, the existence of a defined floor (zero) and an unlimited ceiling (so far 160 mm) slants the outcome towards a skewed distribution -- the higher than average cases are going to pull the average up more than the lower cases drag it down. For temperature, note that the lowest values (11.8) are only 2.7 below the recent normal of 14.5, while the highest value (not in that interval however) was 3.7 higher. The temperatures are more of a symmetrical normal distribution than the rainfalls. 

Will post that other chart in this same post eventually, might take a while to get it finished but you will see the bare bones of it already. 

 

Comparison of CET vs EWP for Junes 1766 to 1900 _ compare to above

_____ 11.5 _____ 12.0 _____ 12.5 _____ 13.0 _____ 13.5 _____ 14.0 _____ 14.5 _____ 15.0 _____ 15.5 _____ 16.0 _____ 16.5 _____ 17.0 _____ 17.5 _____ 18.0 _____ 18.5

160 .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ .................................................1860........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

155 ............................................cool /............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ ...............................................wet ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

150 .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ ............................................................................................................................1768..............................................................................................................................................................................................................

145 .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ ........................................................................................................................................................1848................................................................................................................................................................................

140 .............................................................................1879...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

135 .............................................................................................1852............1797..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

130 ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ .................................................................1830....................................................1789..............................................................................................................................................................................................................

125 .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ .......................................................................................1769..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

120 .........................................................................................................1784........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ .......................................................................................1770...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

115 .....................................................................................................................................................1839...........................................................................................................................................................................................

______ .....................................................................................................................................................1838.......................................................................................................................................................................................

110 ......................................................................................................18631766..................................................................................................................................................................................................................

.____ ...................................................................................................................................................................1833.......................................................................................................................................................................

105 ...................................................................................1882......................1777..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ .....................................................................................1795...............................................................................1829............................................................................................................................................................

100 .............................................................................................................................................18721853........................................................................................................................................................................................

______ ............................................................................................................1824............................................................................................................................................................................................................................

 95 ..................................................................................1812...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ .........................................................................................................1803.........................1875....................1783....1817..................................................................................................................................................... 

 90 .........................................................................1871...........................................................................................................1832...............................................................................................................................................

______ .............................................................................................................................................................................................................1866................................................................................................................................

 85 ................................................................................................1792................1883.....................................1900.....................1836.........................................................................................................................................

______ ......................................................................1843.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 

 80 .....................................................................................................185518921890..........................................1861...................................................................................................................................................................

______ .................................................................18621816......................1819.....1880...................1779...............18451878,97.................................1772................................................................................................

 75 ..............................................................................1841...................................................1776 1851...................................1778,1828...............................................................................................................................

______ .......................................................................................1888............1894........................1815...........1774.....................1834.......................................................................................................................................

 70 ......................................................................................................1881.............................................................................................................1857.....1781..............................................................................................

______ ...........................................................................................................1802.........................................................................................................................................................................................................

 65 .............................................1814....................................................................................1811.....(81-10 AVG).18591773................................................................................................................................................

______ .....................................................................................................................1885...........1873...............................................................................................................................................................................................

 60 ...............................................................................................1854...........1856.................................1790........1835.......1788,18311842..........1786.................................................................................................

______ ........................................................................................................1809 1820.1796.1825................................................................................................................................................................................................

 55 .....................................................................................................................1898...........18401876...........18911782................................................................................................................................................................

______ ...............................................................................................................1813,64...........................................1808.....................1837...........................................................................................................................

 50 ...................................................1823..................................................................1787...............................................................................................................................................................................................................1846

______ ......................................................................1767.............................................................1780.......................................1877............1865................................................1775............................................................

 45..................................................................................................................................................1807,27...................................................................................1785............................1858..................................................

______ ............................................................................................................................1849,74,84.1771.1810.......................1850........1899................................................................................................................

 40 ..................................................1821..............................................................................1867...................1844.....................................1893............................................................................................................

______ ................................................................................................................1793................................................18951806.........................................................................................................................................................

 35 ...............................................................................................1869...................................................................1791.....................................................................................................................................................................

______ ................................................................................................................1886....................................................................1870...................................................................................1822...............................................

 30 .............................................................................................................................................................................1801.......................................................1804...1818.................1798...warm /................................

______ .........................................................................................................................1800.....................................................................................................................................................................dry................................

 25 .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ ......................................................................................................................................1799................................................1889....................................................................................................................................

 20 ...............................................................................................................................................................................................1887..............................................................................................................................

______ ........................................................................................................................................................................................................1868...1794..........................................................................................................

 15 .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1826...................................

 10 .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

______ .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

 05 ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

_____ 11.5 _____ 12.0 _____ 12.5 _____ 13.0 _____ 13.5 _____ 14.0 _____ 14.5 _____ 15.0 _____ 15.5 _____ 16.0 _____ 16.5 _____ 17.0 _____ 17.5 _____ 18.0 _____ 18.5

This older set of data looks remarkably similar to the first (later) chart, albeit perhaps a shift towards more frequent wet cool to average Junes. 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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15.2C and 68 mm please

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On 19/05/2019 at 19:56, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure those 2 could possibly go hand in hand to be fair.

Aug 97 and Aug 04 show that very warm and wet is possible though rare.

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10 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Aug 97 and Aug 04 show that very warm and wet is possible though rare.

Was going to send this reply to Roger's post, yes it certainly possible with plumes if the trough hangs to the West, but usually the breakdown happens too quickly to sustain it but anyway to be honest i was referring more to the 'Atlantic' part of Lettucing Gutted's post rather than the just the 'wet' part, i doubt you could have an Atlantic dominated June that is even well above average, let alone a record breaking one, that said though i know lettucing gutted wasn't being serious anyway.

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Aug 97 and Aug 04 show that very warm and wet is possible though rare.

If I remember correctly Augusts 1997 and 2004 both had a lot of hot, humid and thundery plumes which led to very warm CETs in both cases despite the near record amounts of average monthly rainfall.  August 2004s warmth and rainfall was also bolstered by an unusual amount of sub-tropical cyclones such as the one that brought the infamous Boscastle flood.  July 2010 was also a very warm but very wet Atlantic dominated month, ironically the only month with that combination of conditions in between November 2009 and February 2011.

Edited by Lettucing Gutted

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