June 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

14.1c to the 27th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 12.8c to the 13th & 14th

[Weather-history]

1961 3.9 6.9 8.2 10.0 11.0 14.4

2019 4.0 6.7 7.8  9.1  11.1

First half of year looks similar to the first half of 1961

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 13.7C -0.6C below normal. Rainfall unchanged. All eyes on today's max and how close towards average it will push the final figure to.

[Summer Sun]

14.2c to the 28th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 12.8c to the 13th & 14th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14C -0.4C below normal. Rainfall 133.9mm 183.4% of normal.

So at the moment it's looking like we will end on 14.1C -0.4C below normal and 133.9mm 183.4% of normal.

[Summer Sun]

14.4c to the 29th

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 12.8c to the 13th & 14th

[Derecho]

On 31/05/2019 at 09:44, Quicksilver1989 said:

No guesses on Atlantic garbage but I'll guess a CET of 14.4C. Particularly cool in the west but continental warmth perhaps affecting the East. Below average temperatures in the first half, especially next week before a warm spell towards the end bumps things back up to average once more.

 

19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

14.4c to the 29th

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 12.8c to the 13th & 14th

Please stay at 14.4C 

Edited June 30, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[feb1991blizzard]

Not sure why we had a few warm days and when we get a severely hot day, it doesn't go up by any more than it did on the bog standard warm days.

Edited June 30, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[DAVID SNOW]

Final number 14.5.

After corrections 14.2(imo).

[The PIT]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure why we had a few warm days and when we get a severely hot day, it doesn't go up by any more than it did on the bog standard warm days.

That's because it's towards the end of the month so you get smaller falls and rises.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, The PIT said:

That's because it's towards the end of the month so you get smaller falls and rises.

Yes but fridays was as bigger gain, 27th to 28th shouldn't be that different to 28th to 29th in terms of dilution.

[The PIT]

19 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes but fridays was as bigger gain, 27th to 28th shouldn't be that different to 28th to 29th in terms of dilution.

Put the daily figures in spreadsheet do it for the first ten days then twenty and then thirty. You'll find it's  a lot easier to make huge changes in the first few days then it is by the end of the month. If a month was sixty days long it would need a change of probably 15C degrees to make a notable difference.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Put the daily figures in spreadsheet do it for the first ten days then twenty and then thirty. You'll find it's  a lot easier to make huge changes in the first few days then it is by the end of the month. If a month was sixty days long it would need a change of probably 15C degrees to make a notable difference.

Yes agreed, but a very moderately warm day on friday made more or less the same difference as a massively above average day on saturday, using your logic, then friday shouldn't have made any difference.

[feb1991blizzard]

appologies, there was a 0.1 difference on fri and a 0.2 on saturday.

[snowray]

Should squeeze another 0.1 rise out of today I would think, have we ever had corrections upwards I wonder?

[Don]

2 hours ago, snowray said:

Should squeeze another 0.1 rise out of today I would think, have we ever had corrections upwards I wonder?

Yes, I believe we have on occasion.

[Summer Sun]

June confirmed as 14.2c

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

[BornFromTheVoid]

Something of note, the maximum of 30.6C for the 29th is a new all time record CET max for June. This beats the old record of 30.3C, set on the 28th in 1976.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 14.2c, June 2019 shares the same mean CET with June's:

1701

1738

1750 (interestingly the third month of this year so far to share the same mean figure with a particular month that year, the other two being January and February)

1780

1807

1827

1873

1875

1939

1998

 

 

 

[snowray]

20 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, I believe we have on occasion.

Not this month then?

[Don]

20 minutes ago, snowray said:

Not this month then?

Noo, not this month.  I think I’ve only known it to happen on one or two occasions, with downward adjustments the rest of the time.  

[Don]

5 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Something of note, the maximum of 30.6C for the 29th is a new all time record CET max for June. This beats the old record of 30.3C, set on the 28th in 1976.

Just goes to show how easy it is to achieve high temperatures these days which can crop up in otherwise lacklustre months, a bit like July 2015.

[Roger J Smith]

REPORT ON CONSENSUS and NORMALS SCORING for JUNE

Dec 2018 _____________________________ Jan 2019 _____________________ Feb 2019 __________

____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points ____ FCST __ error__ rank _ points _____ FCST __ error __ rank __ points

Consensus_ 5.0 __ -1.9 _ 32 to 32 _ 52.3 _____3.5 ___ -0.5 __16 to 18 _ 75.7 to 78.6 _ 4.0 __ -2.7 _ 33 to 37 _ 48.3 to 54.1

1989-2018*_4.9 __ -2.0 _ 33 to 33 _ 50.8 _____4.7 ___ +0.7 __21 to 23 _ 68.6 to 71.4 _ 4.9 __ -1.8 _ 14 to 14 _ 81.3

1981-2010__4.6 __ -2.3 _ 42 to 44 _ 33.8 to 36.9 _4.4 _ +0.4 __14 to 15 _ 80.0 to 81.4 _ 4.4 __ -2.3 _ 17 to 19 _ 74.2 to 77.0

 

March 2019 _____________________________ April 2019 _____________________ May 2019

____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points _____FCST_error _ rank __ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank __ points

 consensus _ 6.9 _ --0.9 _ 29 to 33 _ 48.4 to 54.8 _8.4 _ --0.7 _ 24 to 28 _ 55.9 to 62.3 _ 12.3 _ +1.2 _ 28 to 31 _ 50.0-55.0

1989-2018 _ 6.8 __ --1.0 _ 34 to 35 _ 46.2 to 47.8 _8.8 _ --0.3 _ 9 to 13 _ 80.3 to 86.9 __ 12.0 _ +0.9 _ 17 to 20 _ 68.3 to 73.3

1981-2010 _ 6.6 __ --1.2 _ 39 to 39 _ 39.7 ______8.5 _ --0.6 _ 20 to 23 _ 63.9 to 68.6 __ 11.7 _ +0.6 _ 11 to 11 _ 83.3

 

June 2019 ________________________________________________________Average (7 months)

____FORECAST __ error __ rank __ points _____________________________ abs err __ rank ___ points

consensus _ 15.0 _ +0.8 _ 27 to 31 _ 48.1 to 55.0 _________________________ 1.24 __ 27 to 31 __ 54.1 to 59.0

1989-2018 _ 14.6 _ +0.4 _ 11 to 15 _ 75.8 to 82.7 _________________________ 1.01 __ 19 to 22 __ 67.4 to 70.6

1981-2010 _ 14.5 _ +0.3 __ 6 to 10 _ 84.4 to 91.3 _________________________ 1.10 __ 21 to 24 __ 65.6 to 68.3

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Our group effort in June was once again outdone by the two normals and this leaves the contest year average score significantly lower for consensus than either normal, with the most recent period of 1989-2018 still faring better than 1981-2010 although the gap was reduced in June. 

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From the table of entries, these are the top scoring forecasts:  

 

Fcst ___ err __ Forecaster (order of entry)

14.2 ___ 0.0 __ Stationary Front (31) ________

14.3 __ +0.1 __ nn2013 (4) ________________

14.3 __ +0.1 __ Thundershine (23) __________

14.4 __ +0.2 __ Roger J Smith (17) __________

14.4 __ +0.2 __ Quicksilver1989 (38) _________

14.5 __ +0.3 __ summer blizzard (6) _________

14.5 __ +0.3 __ DR(S)NO (11) _____________

13.9 __ --0.3 __ DiagonalRedLine (12) _______

13.9 __ --0.3 __ Timmytour (30) _____________

13.9 __ --0.3 __ B87 (42) __________________

13.8 __ --0.4 __ SunnyDazee (3)____________

14.6 __ +0.4 __ Midlands Ice Age (15) ________

14.6 __ +0.4 __ sundog (47) ________________

13.8 __ --0.4 __ Godber1 (48) _______________

14.6 __ +0.4 __ daniel* (54) ________________

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EWP stalled at 115 mm after 29 days, not much likely to be added on 30th, will post official results but likely to be this top twelve:

1. Godber1 (116 mm)

2. I Rem Atl 252 (110 mm)

3. Wx 26 (97.7 mm)

4. B87 (95 mm)

5. LetItSnow! (94 mm)

6. virtualsphere (92 mm)

7. nn2013 and BornFromTheVoid (88 mm)

9. brmbrmcar (81.6 mm)

10. reef and J10 (80 mm)

12. Kirkcaldy Weather (78.4 mm)

Edited July 1, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[DAVID SNOW]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Just goes to show how easy it is to achieve high temperatures these days which can crop up in otherwise lacklustre months, a bit like July 2015.

I think that's always been the case...

[J10]

Monthly Records

A clear winner this month with Stationery Front the only one to get it spot on.

A further 2 were 0.1c out Thundershine and nn2013

while Roger J Smith and Quicksilver1989 were 0.2c out.

The remainder of the Top 10 can be seen below.

Seasonal and Overall figures to follow tomorrow.