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13 minutes ago, J10 said:

Not as good a chart today. Tomorrow I will have a look at the ensembles.

Thanks J10.

If you'll stand a noob question (and please excuse my total ignorance) but what are the key changes you're looking for from one NOAA chart to the next? My 'understanding' is limited to: closer isobars means windier, and; lower pressures on those isobars means less fine/settled weather. Or is this not an at a glance thing and you have to look at bags of other data?

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Monday 17 June to Monday 1 July  Confidence remains generally low through this period, but during the third week of June it is likely that generally drier and mostly settled conditions will have

Howdy ? Thank you J10 this is super helpful. Always wanted to know what I should be looking for ? Aw shucks. Thank you. I'm pretty happy with it.

Remember there is the Netweather Radar app (android) https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=tv.netweather.netweatherradar&hl=en_GB or the website radar link https://www.netweather.tv/l

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9 hours ago, deadstillstanding said:

Thanks J10.

If you'll stand a noob question (and please excuse my total ignorance) but what are the key changes you're looking for from one NOAA chart to the next? My 'understanding' is limited to: closer isobars means windier, and; lower pressures on those isobars means less fine/settled weather. Or is this not an at a glance thing and you have to look at bags of other data?

Hi Pete ?

Good to see you on this thread Jack.  GFS in range soonish 

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On the NOAA there are 2 sets of lines, from my perspective I look at the hatched lines.

Areas which are covered under blue hatchings indicating troughs, i.e low pressure.
Areas which are covered under purple hatchings indicating neutral conditions.
Areas which are covered under red hatchings indicating ridges, i.e high pressure.

At this stage, we are looking at trends and these charts indicate whether or not high or low pressure is more likely.

So looking at the 3rd June chart, which covers 11-17 June there are purple lines towards the South West of the UK and red lines towards the North East. So more unsettled towards the South West of the UK, and more settled towards the North East.

There are many people on here who would be able to give a far more detailed in relation to this.

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Wednesday 19 June to Wednesday 3 July

Confidence is low through this period, but it is likely that generally drier and mostly settled conditions will have become established across the north of the UK. Meanwhile, southern parts are likely to be more prone to showers, or perhaps some longer spells of rain with the possibility of occasional thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely be around average or a little above, with northwestern areas most favoured for warmer than average temperatures.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Tue 4 Jun 2019

Ensembles

Pressure Trends

1538342776_SomersetPressure01June.thumb.png.ca1fa62ff8869d371478b1eb301b7135.png156394637_SomersetPressure02June.thumb.png.dd680bf32cf5e6ed9dbbfb29866ca7e0.png1943621470_SomersetPressure03June.thumb.png.ff6fb6d887a8b03006d4efe460a64210.png2000329220_SomersetPressure04June.thumb.png.568f8061f36519590b9f006d6792bb7a.png

Rainfall

Wet this week, turning somewhat drier the middle of next week.

1051383224_SomersetRain04June.thumb.png.eaffc00db0b9bf6a6fecf39ff99a95b4.png

Temps

49235585_SomersetTemps04June.thumb.png.5f6f48d67e94e961ed9ea1ecd9535405.png

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On 03/06/2019 at 21:34, deadstillstanding said:

Thanks J10.

If you'll stand a noob question (and please excuse my total ignorance) but what are the key changes you're looking for from one NOAA chart to the next? My 'understanding' is limited to: closer isobars means windier, and; lower pressures on those isobars means less fine/settled weather. Or is this not an at a glance thing and you have to look at bags of other data?

Was it yourself that did the Glastonbury 'tube' map? It's outstanding!!!!

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On 04/06/2019 at 07:33, PompeyFC said:

Hi Pete ?

Howdy ?

11 hours ago, J10 said:

On the NOAA there are 2 sets of lines, from my perspective I look at the hatched lines.

Areas which are covered under blue hatchings indicating troughs, i.e low pressure.
Areas which are covered under purple hatchings indicating neutral conditions.
Areas which are covered under red hatchings indicating ridges, i.e high pressure.

Thank you J10 this is super helpful. Always wanted to know what I should be looking for ?

9 hours ago, duggyfresh said:

Was it yourself that did the Glastonbury 'tube' map? It's outstanding!!!!

Aw shucks. Thank you. I'm pretty happy with it.

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Thursday 20 June to Thursday 4 July

Confidence is low through this period, but it is most likely that generally drier and mostly settled conditions will have become established across the north of the UK. Meanwhile, southern areas are likely to be more prone to showers, or perhaps some longer spells of rain with the possibility of occasional thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely be around average or a little above, with northwest Scotland perhaps most favoured for warmer than average temperatures.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 5 Jun 2019

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Friday 21 June to Friday 5 July

Confidence is low through this period, but it is most likely that generally drier and mostly settled conditions will have become established across the north of the UK. Meanwhile, southern areas are likely to be more prone to showers, or perhaps some longer spells of rain with the possibility of occasional thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely be around average or a little above, with northwest Scotland perhaps most favoured for warmer than average temperatures.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Thu 6 Jun 2019

Looking at the NOAA charts, higher pressure to the North of the UK with lower pressure off the south coast of the Uk.

814day.03 030619.gif814day.03 040619.gif814day.03 050619.gif814day.03 060619.gif

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Saturday 22 June to Saturday 6 July

Although the weather is very uncertain for this period, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of sporadic wet and windy weather, though there will probably be more in the way of drier spells too as we move towards the end of June. Winds should become relatively light, with a tendency to turn from cooler northerly or easterly winds to warmer southerly or westerly winds which would allow temperatures to rise to normal or slightly above normal for the time of year.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Fri 7 Jun 2019

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Sunday 23 June to Sunday 7 July

Although the weather is very uncertain for this period, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of sporadic wet and windy weather, though there will probably be more in the way of drier spells too by the end of June and into the first week of July. Winds should become relatively light, with a tendency to turn from cooler northerly or easterly winds to warmer southerly or westerly winds which would allow temperatures to rise to normal or slightly above normal for the time of year.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Sat 8 Jun 2019

 

 

 

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Monday 24 June to Monday 8 July

The expected weather conditions in this period remain very uncertain, but at present the most likely scenario is that we will continue to see occasional spells of wet and windy weather, however there will probably be more in the way of drier spells too by the end of June and into the first week of July. Winds should become relatively light, with a tendency to turn from cooler northerly or easterly winds to warmer southerly or westerly winds which would allow temperatures to rise to normal, or perhaps slightly above normal for the time of year.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 9 Jun 2019

Ensembles

Generally looking unsettled over much of June with some rain at times and not looking as promising as a few days ago. However pressure edging up towards the end of June.

Somerset Pressure 08 June.pngSomerset Pressure 09 June.png

Somerset Rain 08 June.pngSomerset Rain 09 June.png

It will be interesting if someone can keep us updated with on site conditions with the recent rain and the potential for some heavy rain at times this week.

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On 09/06/2019 at 18:54, J10 said:

It will be interesting if someone can keep us updated with on site conditions with the recent rain and the potential for some heavy rain at times this week.

This. 

It feels like every time I look at what it’s doing in Somerset over the last few weeks it’s been hammering down. Lots of rain across the South today again. 

Im concerned for a mud trap tbh. The site does dry out quickly these days but there is a point of no return. A few years ago (can’t remember which, they all blend into one now) we had an almost completely dry weekend but all the rainfall in the two weeks prior meant foot deep, pull off your wellies, sticky mud in large areas of the site. Just makes getting about a massive pain. 

I would want to see at least 4 warm days with no rain to harden up the surfaces before gates open, but I don’t think we’re going to get it. 

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Tuesday 25 June to Tuesday 9 July

The forecast through this period is very uncertain. Presently the preferred solution is for some spells of unsettled weather to effect the UK through the period, although probably interspersed with more in the way of drier, more settled spells than during the previous period. Winds should mostly be light, with temperatures generally recovering to around normal for the time of year.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Mon 10 Jun 2019

Perhaps a little drier after this week.

1792803669_SomersetPressure10June.thumb.png.2559cf7634cac826c525077bb59b5850.png68680640_SomersetRain10June.thumb.png.f4107eba1d897249f9c08c5b84b608fe.png

The first GFS run after the gates open.

1085337958_GFST384.thumb.png.ac68f3ebf945d39bc8c9434ee06c000c.png

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33 minutes ago, Zippy said:

This. 

It feels like every time I look at what it’s doing in Somerset over the last few weeks it’s been hammering down. Lots of rain across the South today again. 

Im concerned for a mud trap tbh. The site does dry out quickly these days but there is a point of no return. A few years ago (can’t remember which, they all blend into one now) we had an almost completely dry weekend but all the rainfall in the two weeks prior meant foot deep, pull off your wellies, sticky mud in large areas of the site. Just makes getting about a massive pain. 

I would want to see at least 4 warm days with no rain to harden up the surfaces before gates open, but I don’t think we’re going to get it. 

Someone on the Efestivals forum lives in Pilton and has been reporting - most of the really bad heavy rain has missed them. Also the last 6 months have been very dry so the water table is very low, leaving a lot of room to sucl up the rain we're having now. Also general consensus is for things to improve after this week.

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Wednesday 26 June to Wednesday 10 July

Although rather uncertain, the most likely weather for the end of June could well be a continuation of mostly dry and warm weather for the southeast of the UK along with light winds. Windier and wetter weather is more likely in the northwest though there will be dry spells here too.

Into July, there is more chance of showers and longer spells of rain across the country generally, though the south and southeast may still see the warmest and driest weather.

Updated at: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Tue 11 Jun 2019

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Monday 17 June to Wednesday 26 June

After a rather unsettled weekend, Monday will see warm sunny spells for many. However, showers are still possible, especially in the west and northwest where they could be heavy, with the risk of thunder. The south and southeast will likely see drier and more settled conditions through next week though. Here we will see the warmest temperatures and it could be even very warm for parts of the southeast. It will stay windy in the northwest though, with a risk of showers continuing here towards the end of June. The more settled conditions in the south are then likely to extend further north and west, with lighter winds and warmer temperatures than of late likely.

Thursday 27 June to Thursday 11 July

Although rather uncertain, the most likely weather for the end of June could well be a continuation of mostly dry and warm weather for the southeast of the UK, along with light winds. Windier and wetter weather is more likely in the northwest but there will be dry spells here too. Into July, there is more chance of showers and longer spells of rain across the country generally, though the south and southeast may still see the warmest and driest weather.

Updated at: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 12 Jun 2019

GFS Ensembles

After this weeks washout, slowly turning drier and more settled over next week and into the runup to the festival, without any real stunning summer weather.

A few of the op runs look decidedly wet around the festival, but while some rain is possible there appears to be a fault with the precipitation on the 12Hz op run.

286075469_SomersetPressure12June.thumb.png.5fe7906189367b530cacb206bee74fd7.png1860527398_SomersetRain12June.thumb.png.383cd8a5013ed630969815c8e5af759a.png

GFS operational run

A decent start for the festival, but rather unsettled by the Friday, however this does look an outlier at the moment.

945248091_GFST336to26June.thumb.png.434507db094ebd5bd0bc1b992f371d74.png504610159_GFST384to28June.thumb.png.ad19d6fc28a9a8c73590ed4c316a3a82.png

NOAA Charts

Slowly showing more settled conditions over the UK before the festival.

1566455726_814day.03110619.thumb.gif.92c2aea1e5efb9d64b6c3af0297d679e.gif124000394_814day.03120619.thumb.gif.c7a3419819947aff24176f00c53f3a1a.gif

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On 10/06/2019 at 19:57, duggyfresh said:

Someone on the Efestivals forum lives in Pilton and has been reporting - most of the really bad heavy rain has missed them. Also the last 6 months have been very dry so the water table is very low, leaving a lot of room to sucl up the rain we're having now. Also general consensus is for things to improve after this week.

This is some very welcome news. 

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