Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

It's May, the sun is (mostly) shining, and the festival is a little over 6 weeks out. Naturally my thoughts turn to obsessively poring over anything @J10 and the rest of you good netweather people have to say about it. Last year it was a scorcher in Pilton... but there wasn't a festival. I'm not saying that the weather gods owe us one or anything but... you know... make it shine please.

So, what do you think?

 

glastosun.png

Edited by Jo Farrow
add photo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

35 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I’m hoping to do Boomtown Fair

https://www.boomtownfair.co.uk/

 

You don’t need to enter the lotTORy to win a ticket 😉

Ugh. Yeah, thankfully I don't have to go through the ticket day scrum any more. I volunteer on the welfare tent – handing out suncream or ponchos during the day (sometimes both on the same day) and cups of tea and sympathy during the night.

Haven't been to Boom but I know a lot of people that really like it. Have fun!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Far too early to make any predictions but here is the UK long range weather forecast from the Met Office.

There are only weak weather signals for the first half of June so we can expect a mixture of dry settled periods and changeable spells. In general, drier and less windy weather is more likely across northern parts of the UK, though southern areas can expect some of these quieter spells too. These periods of drier and settled weather will be punctuated by cooler, showery spells as Atlantic weather systems arrive from the west. In the absence of any strong signals, temperatures are forecast to be close to normal for the time of year.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Mon 20 May 2019

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks J10!

I know this is silly early and I don't really expect anything halfway reliable for a couple of weeks... but I can't help myself. I should read that Met Office outlook as an object lesson in ambiguity but I reckon I'll probably re-read it until I convince myself of something or another.

Looking forward to any predictions once there's the data. Thanks again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest update - (using the word update advisedly as there is not change from yesterday)

Wednesday 5 June to Wednesday 19 June

There are only weak weather signals for the first half of June, so we can expect a mixture of dry settled periods and changeable spells. In general, drier and less windy weather is more likely across northern parts of the UK, though southern areas can expect some of these quieter spells too. These periods of drier and settled weather will be punctuated by cooler, showery spells as Atlantic weather systems arrive from the west. In the absence of any strong signals, temperatures are forecast to be close to normal for the time of year.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Tue 21 May 2019

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another (pointless) update.

Thursday 6 June to Thursday 20 June 

It is too early to give much detail for this period, but the first half of June is likely to be a mixture of dry settled periods and changeable spells. In general, drier and less windy weather is more likely across northern parts of the UK, though southern areas can expect some of these quieter spells too. These periods of drier and settled weather will be mixed in with cooler, showery spells as Atlantic weather systems arrive from the west. Temperatures are forecast to be close to the average for the time of year.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 22 May 2019

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My annual dip into the netweather forums begins. Pleased to see there is already a thread underway. 

I hate to be a doom monger but I have had a feeling for a wet one this year for some time. Hope I’m wrong!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, J10 said:

Another (pointless) update.

Thursday 6 June to Thursday 20 June 

It is too early to give much detail for this period, but the first half of June is likely to be a mixture of dry settled periods and changeable spells. In general, drier and less windy weather is more likely across northern parts of the UK, though southern areas can expect some of these quieter spells too. These periods of drier and settled weather will be mixed in with cooler, showery spells as Atlantic weather systems arrive from the west. Temperatures are forecast to be close to the average for the time of year.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 22 May 2019

Who gets paid to write this rubbish?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Signs of promise?

Saturday 8 June to Saturday 22 June 

The general trend for this period is currently for a more settled picture across the UK. However, there remains the potential for further areas of low pressure to bring spells of rain or showers at times with some stronger winds. Confidence is low by mid June but the most likely scenario is that overall more settled weather is likely to prevail. Temperatures will start a little below normal, slowly becoming a little warmer.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Fri 24 May 2019

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunday 9 June to Sunday 23 June 

Whilst confidence is low throughout this period, the most probable trend for the middle two weeks of June is for an increasingly settled weather picture across the UK. Whilst this may bring spells of dry and often sunny weather, warmer day time temperatures may occasionally trigger heavy, possibly thundery showers. However there still remains a risk of areas of low pressure bringing longer spells of rain across the UK at times, perhaps with some stronger winds. Temperatures will be near normal or warm overall for the time of year.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Sat 25 May 2019

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Monday 10 June to Monday 24 June 

Whilst confidence is low throughout this period, the most probable trend for the middle two weeks of June is for a relatively settled weather picture across the UK. Whilst this may bring spells of dry and often sunny weather, warmer day time temperatures may occasionally trigger heavy, possibly thundery showers. However there still remains a risk of areas of low pressure bringing longer spells of rain across the UK at times, perhaps with some stronger winds. Temperatures will be near normal or warm overall for the time of year.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 26 May 2019

Edited by J10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Tuesday 11 June to Tuesday 25 June 

Whilst confidence is low throughout this period, the most probable trend for the middle two weeks of June is for a relatively settled weather picture across the UK. Whilst this may bring spells of dry and often sunny weather, warmer day time temperatures may occasionally trigger heavy, possibly thundery showers. However there still remains a risk of areas of low pressure bringing longer spells of rain across the UK at times, perhaps with some stronger winds. Temperatures will be near normal or warm overall for the time of year.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Mon 27 May 2019

Edited by J10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

**Wellies, reusable water bottle, suncream**

Headlines are already shrieking about hottest June, heatwaves and hottest summer. As J10 points out, it's too early for specifics for the end of June, but just to clear some of the early UK weather hype as the full lineup is announced today #Glastonbury2019 

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9604-what-is-a-heatwave-will-we-have-a-great-uk-summer 

 

glastolaser.png

Edited by Jo Farrow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Wednesday 12 June to Wednesday 26 June

Whilst confidence is low throughout, the most probable trend for this period is for a relatively mixed weather picture, although overall more settled than the first part of June. This is especially the case in the north and northwest of the UK, where it is likely to be much warmer. Whilst this is likely to bring spells of dry and often sunny weather, occasional outbreaks of heavy, possibly thundery showers may develop anywhere. Late in the month, there is a possibility of more unsettled conditions returning with longer spells of rain across the UK at times, perhaps with some stronger winds. Temperatures will be near normal or warm overall for the time of year, warmest conditions most likely in the southeast.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Tue 28 May 2019

 

Edited by J10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thursday 13 June to Thursday 27 June

Confidence is generally low through this period. The start of the period is likely to see a continuation of the cool and changeable conditions, with further showers or longer spells of rain, especially in the northwest. By mid-June there are indications of generally drier, more settled conditions being established across the UK. This change will be more marked across northwestern areas, following the changeable start to June. There are likely to be further changeable spells during the period, with a risk of thundery showers, more especially in the south. Temperatures will probably be above normal or warm overall for the time of year, with the warmest conditions most likely in the south and southeast.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 29 May 2019

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Friday 14 June to Friday 28 June

Confidence is generally low through this period but it is likely that drier and more settled conditions will become more widely established across the UK. This change will be most marked across northwestern areas following the changeable start to June. However all parts are still likely to have further changeable spells through the rest of the month with a risk of thundery showers, more especially in the south. Temperatures will probably be above normal or warm overall for the time of year, with the warmest conditions most likely in the south and southeast.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Thu 30 May 2019

Ensemble Trends

Somerset Pressure 28 May.pngSomerset Pressure 29 May.pngSomerset Pressure 30 May.png

Edited by J10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Saturday 15 June 2019 to Saturday 29 June

Confidence is generally low, but by mid June there are indications that generally drier and more settled conditions will become established across the UK. This change will be most marked across north and northwestern parts of the UK which are likely to have experienced quite changeable weather through the first part of June. Despite the generally more settled conditions there is still a risk for further changeable spells bringing a risk of thundery outbreaks, these most probable across southern parts. Temperatures will likely be somewhat above average with the warmest conditions likely in the south and southeast.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Fri 31 May 2019

NOAA 8 to 14 Day 500mb Outlook Trends

 

814day.03 270519.gif814day.03 280519.gif814day.03 290519.gif814day.03 300519.gif

Edited by J10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunday 16 June to Sunday 30 June 

Confidence is generally low, but by mid June there are indications that generally drier and more settled conditions will have become established across the UK. This change will be most marked across north and northwestern parts of the UK which are likely to have experienced quite changeable weather through the first part of June. Despite the generally more settled conditions there is still a risk for further changeable spells, particularly towards the end of month. These will bring a risk of occasional thundery outbreaks, more especially in the south. Temperatures will likely be around average, but perhaps cooler in the north towards the end of the month.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Sat 1 Jun 2019

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last June was hot and dry and the reason...  no Glastonbury,

This year its Glastonbury , mud bath it is then  😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah. This is going to ruin ground conditions if it keeps up beyond next week imo.

1AB71231-37AC-4C73-AD1E-55293D436E65.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Zippy said:

Yeah. This is going to ruin ground conditions if it keeps up beyond next week imo.

1AB71231-37AC-4C73-AD1E-55293D436E65.png

Also Zippy, have s read of this article - gives hope that the pre-festival ground conditions could hold up. Unless things start going seriously unsettled.....

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.somersetlive.co.uk/whats-on/music-nightlife/glastonbury-festival-weather-met-office-2927481.amp

Edited by duggyfresh

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Monday 17 June to Monday 1 July 

Confidence remains generally low through this period, but during the third week of June it is likely that generally drier and mostly settled conditions will have become established across the UK. This will bring some fine and dry days, but there will still be a risk of some periods of more changeable weather, particularly as we approach the start of July. These will bring occasional wet and breezy spells, with a risk of some thundery outbreaks, more especially in the south. Temperatures will likely be around average, but perhaps cooler in the north towards the end of the month.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 2 Jun 2019

 

My thoughts

While this week is unsettled over Glastonbury (and indeed most of the UK) with some rain at times, the middle third of June looks like settling down and turning a lot drier. The Met Office summaries, the GFS ensembles and the NOAA pressure charts all suggest this.

Still far too far ahead to give a forecast for Glastonbury.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Tuesday 18 June to Tuesday 2 July
Confidence remains generally low through this period, but during the third week of June it is likely that generally drier and mostly settled conditions will have become established across the UK. This will bring some fine and dry days, but there will still be a risk of some periods of more changeable weather, particularly as we approach the start of July. These will bring occasional wet and breezy spells, with a risk of some thundery outbreaks, more especially in the south. Temperatures will likely be around average, but perhaps cooler in the north towards the end of the month.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Mon 3 Jun 2019

NOAA 8 to 14 Day 500mb Outlook Trends

796658821_814day.03310519.thumb.gif.99cc71e53ff6f2599a0cb2bef7c5001e.gif2005958405_814day.03010619.thumb.gif.2ba027f4b27e912a5f3e1bc8a3d076fc.gif322522876_814day.03020619.thumb.gif.69870b993824c2ce6e831e3ac8b5b07e.gif1318271940_814day.03030619.thumb.gif.eddefecd7cf3bf68e1532a74d02df88f.gif

Not as good a chart today. Tomorrow I will have a look at the ensembles.

Edited by J10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...