Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
nsrobins

Chase2019 Day 3 MDT risk TX/OK Panhandles

Recommended Posts

Apologies if the day is incorrect but a MDT risk with 10% tor in a classic DL set up. What I call a ‘Canadian Day’ and I’d be lunching at the Old Cattle Exchange (wicked pepper topside strip).

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nope, correct day! Saturday was a bonus day with Sunday day 1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good luck out there today guys, stay safe! I saw the picture of yesterday's lightning encounter!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1218z SPC update upped tornado risk to 15%

tor_day1.thumb.PNG.c98097b072cd887f1cb9728bde546ae1.PNG

...Southern High Plains and vicinity through tonight...

The synoptic front extends from northern MO to the northern TX Panhandle, though the effective front is located farther south into northern OK, as a result of outflow from overnight convection that has mostly weakened. Cyclogenesis is expected today along the boundary into northeast NM in advance of a midlevel trough crossing AZ/NM, with a sharpening dryline to the south near the TX/NM border. Mass response to the cyclogenesis will draw boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s northwestward into west TX and the TX Panhandle, beneath a plume of steep (8-9 C/km) midlevel lapse rates. This will drive moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) in the warm sector east of the dryline, with weakening convective inhibition by early-mid afternoon.

Some consolidation of the residual outflows and the synoptic front is expected today into KS. This front and the dryline will focus severe storm development today, with the earlier development expected near the front across the northern TX and OK Panhandles into southwest KS. An increase in ascent from west-to-east during the afternoon and daytime heating/mixing in cloud breaks will weaken the cap such that storm initiation is likely by mid afternoon along and east of the dryline. The initial convection will remain semi-discrete for a few hours into this evening, in an environment increasingly favorable for right-moving supercells capable of producing very large hail as deep-layer vertical shear increases. An increase in low-level shear is also expected later this afternoon/evening in the warm sector, with effective SRH likely in excess of 200 m2/s2. The semi-discrete storm mode with increasing low-level shear in a sufficiently moist environment will support tornadic supercells, with the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Where are the team currently. Somewhere like Pampa Tx?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

13Z Rap has Amarillo right in the firing line and possibly just further south - latest sounding from Plainview

 

rap_2019050713_011_34.02--101_82.thumb.png.89c6806f59b1849bba2f57ab5811af5a.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Where are the team currently. Somewhere like Pampa Tx?

Started the day in Liberal, KS according to Paul on Facebook. Heading down towards Amarillo, might be some weather down that way apparently...

Edited by Nick L

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

image.thumb.png.c5b5eaf5c73924a0e58f4264ede34d97.png

Just a bit!!

The tornados could be earlier rather than later.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Would say a chase will develop from around KAMA (which is east of the city a bit) east on I-40 towards Clinton OK. Hoping it gets clear of the Amarillo metro to make it safer to follow especially given the working population probably on high alert to leave early so afternoon rush could occur with storm warnings rather than at its usual time. Think the most likely locations for damaging tornados might be Pampa to Wheeler south to  Clarendon to Wellington TX -- approx 30-50 east of KAMA. Childress may be in line later, eventually Clinton to nw of Wichita Falls by evening.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I’d go with that Roger, although as I said in the thread opener I’m a stickler for a good steak so it’s Canadian for me for lunch, then review with options in most directions.

Has the feel of the May 2016 Dodge City day to be fair.

Edited by nsrobins
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Large hail and circulation west of Borger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

13Z Rap has Amarillo right in the firing line and possibly just further south - latest sounding from Plainview

 

rap_2019050713_011_34.02--101_82.thumb.png.89c6806f59b1849bba2f57ab5811af5a.png

PDS TOR! Wowza. Could be a big show today!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Large hail and circulation west of Borger

Gary Schmitt stream is showing a lowering.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ganging up on Amarillo now!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Ganging up on Amarillo now!

 

Yes, Amarillo about to take a battering. GR Level 3 is showing 0.75 to 1.5inch hail near Amarillo, but the Borger cell has 2.25inch at the mo! Nice shape on radar too!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is looking ominous!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow! For anyone who can't see the radar.

image.thumb.png.0596b51ef07b16d4d3c6452c4a9450ef.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For some reason, the warnings aren't coming through to my GRLevel 3 😞

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Nick L said:

For some reason, the warnings aren't coming through to my GRLevel 3 😞

I got this, there was a new version came out a couple of weeks ago. If you search for GRLevelX forum, sign up there is a free update for GRLevel 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

nado warning sirens in Amarillo? Phelps stream.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, matty40s said:

nado warning sirens in Amarillo? Phelps stream.

Which site?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, mikeofmacc said:

Which site?

The one Boro snow posted above^

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

The one Boro snow posted above^

 

Cheers found it, couldn't get the icons to show! 😄

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://radaromega.com

cant help thinking the guys to the NW are chasing a dream and the storms to the southwest of Amarillo will be the stonkers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...